The Stock Market’s Magnificent Seven Is Now the Fab Four
It is a bullish signal that the market is rallying without the likes of Apple and Tesla, some investors say
4 min
The Magnificent Seven trade is beginning to fizzle—and yet, the stock market is still heading higher.
The S&P 500 climbed 10% in the first quarter, its best start to a year since 2019 , even though two of its biggest constituents suffered double-digit declines. Apple shares fell 11% in the first three months of the year, while Tesla dropped almost 30%. Alphabet shares sputtered for much of the period before making a run in the past three weeks and ending up 8%.
The other four big tech stocks in the group known as the Magnificent Seven— Nvidia , Meta Platforms , Microsoft , Amazon.com —continued their meteoric run and outpaced the broader market. Some market strategists have dubbed them the new Fab Four.
Some investors say it is a bullish signal that the market is still rallying without the likes of Apple and Tesla because it means other groups are taking part . All of the S&P 500’s sectors, except real estate, logged gains in the first quarter. Small caps, industrial and financial-services stocks are among those that jumped, fueling bets that the broader market might have more room to run.
Much of the enthusiasm is tied to hopes that the economy has escaped a deep recession and that the Federal Reserve will soon pivot to cutting interest rates , even if not at the pace some investors had previously hoped. A frenzy over the future of artificial intelligence has added to the zeal.
“If you’d have told me eight weeks ago that Apple and Tesla would be down as much as they are, oh and by the way, you’re punting when you’re going to do the rate cuts and you’re getting less rate cuts, I would have assumed the market would be down,” said Ryan Detrick , chief market strategist at Carson Group.
To be sure, some investors worry the divergence in the big tech stocks is a sign of exhaustion in the rally and question whether future gains will be harder to achieve from here. The S&P 500’s market value has swelled more than $9 trillion since late October, and the index has set 22 record closes in 2024.
In the coming days, investors trying to gauge the trajectory of the market and economy will parse the release of U.S. manufacturing data Monday and the monthly jobs report Friday.
Nvidia continues to be a stock-market star. The graphics-chip maker has indicated demand for the computing power that underlies AI remains astronomical . Its shares have jumped more than 80% to start the year, after more than tripling in 2023.
By some metrics, Nvidia has displaced Tesla as the most popular stock among individual investors . It is currently the biggest average holding in individual investors’ portfolios, at about 9%, VandaTrack data show.
Meta shares, meanwhile, have soared partly thanks to Meta’s investments in artificial intelligence that have made targeted ads smarter. The social-media company recently said it would pay its first shareholder dividend. Microsoft stole the crown of biggest U.S. company from Apple earlier this year, with a valuation that topped $3 trillion, and Amazon has sharply improved its profitability.
Despite their recent gains, some of the stocks look less pricey than they did last year. Nvidia is trading at 35 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, below its peak of 62 in May of last year. Amazon’s multiple is 40, down from 2023’s high of 62. The S&P 500 is trading at 21 times future earnings, slightly up from last year’s highs of 19.
The Fab Four are responsible for nearly half of the S&P 500’s first-quarter advance, according to Howard Silverblatt , senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Joseph Ferrara , investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, said he expects investors to rotate out of big tech stocks and funnel into other sectors as the year progresses. That is largely because the earnings of the other 493 companies in the index are expected to outperform those of the Magnificent Seven by the fourth quarter.
“The fact that the market is still holding these levels and trading up without that full force of the Magnificent Seven is actually a really positive thing,” he said.
Jonathan Golub , a strategist at UBS, said one reason Magnificent Seven’s earnings dominance could end is because it will be hard to top the explosive growth they posted at the end of last year. Those results looked like blockbuster beats when compared with 2022’s weaker numbers, he said in a recent research note.
Last year, any hint of weakness in the Magnificent Seven would have sent the broader market tumbling. In fact, for much of the year, those seven stocks were responsible for all of the S&P 500’s advance.
This year is a different story. Tesla is struggling on numerous fronts. The electric-vehicle maker is facing pressure from Chinese competitors, which have rapidly expanded their presence around the globe in recent years. It has also warned of notably slower growth in 2024, and its profit margins have taken a hit.
Apple’s woes have been mounting, too . The Justice Department recently sued the company, accusing it of monopolistic behaviour. European authorities are cracking down on its app store. Plus, it is facing another weak iPhone demand cycle, and investors are worried that Apple is behind in the current wave of excitement around AI.
Bespoke Investment Group data show Apple shares underperformed the S&P 500 over the 200 days through Tuesday by the widest margin since October 2013.
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As housing drives wealth and policy debate, the real risk is an economy hooked on growth without productivity to sustain it.
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As housing drives wealth and policy debate, the real risk is an economy hooked on growth without productivity to sustain it.
3 minFor decades, Australia has leaned into its reputation as the lucky country. But luck, as it turns out, is not an economic strategy.
What once looked like resilience now appears increasingly fragile. Beneath the surface of rising property values and steady headline growth, the Australian economy is showing signs of strain that can no longer be ignored.
Recent data paints a sobering picture. Australia has recorded one of the largest declines in real household disposable income per capita among advanced economies.
Wages have failed to keep pace with inflation, meaning many Australians are working harder for less. On a per capita basis, income growth has stalled and, at times, reversed.
And yet, on paper, things still look relatively solid. GDP is growing. Unemployment remains low. But that growth is increasingly being driven by population expansion rather than productivity.
More people are contributing to output, but not necessarily improving living standards.
That distinction matters.
For years, Australia’s economic success rested on a powerful combination: a once-in-a-generation mining boom, a credit-fuelled housing market, strong migration and a property sector that rarely faltered. Between 1991 and 2020, the country avoided recession entirely, building enormous wealth in the process.
But much of that wealth is tied to property. Around two-thirds of household wealth sits in real estate, inflated by leverage and sustained by demand. It has worked, until now.
The problem is the supply side of the economy has not kept up.
Housing supply is falling behind population growth. Rental vacancies are near record lows.
Construction firms are collapsing at an elevated rate. At the same time, massive infrastructure pipelines are competing with residential projects for labour and materials, pushing costs higher and delaying delivery.
The result is a system under pressure from all angles.
Despite near full employment, productivity growth has stagnated for years. In simple terms, Australians are putting in more hours without generating more output per hour. The economy is running faster, butgoing nowhere.
Meanwhile, government spending continues to expand. Public debt is approaching $1 trillion, with spending now accounting for a record share of GDP.
The gap between spending and revenue has been filled by borrowing for decades, adding further pressure to an already stretched system.
This is where the uncomfortable question emerges.
Has Australia become too reliant on a model driven by rising property values, expanding credit and population growth?
As asset prices rise, households feel wealthier and borrow more. Banks lend more. Governments collect more revenue. Migration fuels demand. The cycle reinforces itself.
But when productivity stalls and debt outpaces real income, the system begins to depend on constant expansion just to stay stable.
It is not a collapse scenario. But it is not particularly stable either.
Nowhere is this more evident than in housing.
The National Housing Accord targets 1.2 million new homes over five years, yet current completion rates are well below that pace. With approvals falling and construction costs rising, the gap between supply and demand is widening, not narrowing.
Housing is also one of the largest contributors to inflation, with costs rising sharply across rents, construction and utilities. Yet the private sector, from small investors to major developers, is struggling to make projects stack up in the current environment.
This brings the policy debate into sharper focus.
Tax settings such as negative gearing and capital gains concessions have undoubtedly boosted demand over the past two decades. But they have also supported supply. Removing them may ease prices briefly, but risks deepening the supply shortage over time.
That is the paradox.
Policies designed to make housing more affordable can, in practice, make the shortage worse if they discourage development. The optics may appeal, but the economics are far less forgiving.
It is also worth remembering that most property investors are not institutional players. The majority own just one investment property. They are, in many cases, ordinary Australians using real estate as their primary wealth-building tool.
Undermining that system without replacing it with a viable alternative risks unintended consequences, from reduced supply to higher rents and increased inflation.
So where does that leave Australia?
At a crossroads.
The country can continue to rely on population growth and rising asset prices to drive economic activity. Or it can shift towards a model built on productivity, innovation and sustainable growth.
The latter is harder. It requires structural reform, long-term thinking and political discipline.
But it is also the only path that leads to genuine, lasting prosperity.
The question is no longer whether Australia has been lucky.
It is whether it can evolve before that luck runs out.
Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.
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