The 7 key insights into the Australian property market you need to know

Australian home values rose by 1.6 percent over the March quarter following an 8.1 percent increase in 2023, according to CoreLogic data. Historically, home prices have typically fallen as interest rates rise, but the opposite has occurred due to a lack of supply and high demand turbocharged by immigration.

While the optimists theorise that property doubles every seven years, pessimists talk about a bubble and inevitable crash. But AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says the Australian housing market “remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be”.

Here is a summary of Dr Oliver’s 7 key observations regarding Australian property.

1. It’s very expensive

This has been the case since the early 2000s but it’s been getting worse. House price-to-income ratios have doubled since the year 2000. The 2023 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey shows the median multiple of house prices to income at 8.2 times versus around five in the US and UK. The years taken to save a 20 percent deposit for an average full-time wage earner have doubled from five years 30 years ago to 10 years now. The expensive nature of Australian property … is leading to rising wealth and intergenerational inequality.

2. It’s very diverse

This has been seen recently with rapid relative price growth in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. This divergence partly reflects a combination of better housing affordability and relative population growth, with Brisbane and Perth benefitting from interstate migration.

3. Mortgage arrears remain low (for now at least)

The low level of arrears partly reflects strong lending standards in Australia combined with the strong jobs market and a high level of savings buffers coming out of the pandemic. That said, arrears are starting to pick up and the risks will rise as buffers run down, scope to cut discretionary spending is exhausted and if the labour market deteriorates significantly.

4. Interest rates still matter

The downtrend in mortgage rates since the late 1980s underpinned the surge in property prices over the same period as it enabled buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. And rate hikes have been associated with cyclical price falls with rate cuts usually needed for upswings. But of course, the impact of interest rates can be swamped by other factors at times, as has been the case over the last year. Price gains are expected to be around five percent this year with high rates dragging but the supply shortfall supporting prices.

5. It’s chronically undersupplied

This has been the case since the mid-2000s when immigration levels, and hence population growth, surged and the supply of new homes did not keep up. The pandemic’s freeze on immigration provided a brief relief but this was offset by a fall in the number of people per household and the problem has worsened with reopening leading to record immigration levels. This has pushed underlying housing demand to around 250,000 dwellings p.a. at a time when home completions are around 170,000 dwellings a year. So, the shortfall of homes is getting worse and likely to reach 200,000 dwellings by June.

6. Forecasting swings in home prices is hard

Failed property crash calls have been a dime a dozen over the last two decades and forecasting property swings has been hard. For example, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock noted last month that “I wouldn’t like to predict housing prices … every time we tried … we seem to get it wrong…”.

7. Property has similar long–term returns to shares

[Since 1926] both shares and property return around 11 percent pa. Property’s low correlation with shares, lower volatility but lower liquidity makes it a good portfolio diversifier. So, there is clearly a role for it in investors’ portfolios.

The $11.3 billion Homes for Australia plan unveiled in this week’s Federal Budget includes an additional $1 billion in funding – on top of $500 million previously pledged – to help the states and territories fast-track the building of ‘enabling infrastructure’ such as new roads, sewers and energy, water and community infrastructure to create more areas for buyers to build their new homes.

Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers handed down his third budget this week (Photo by Martin Ollman/Getty Images)

To support this goal, the Federal Government has also committed $90.6 million to grow Australia’s construction workforce, including 20,000 new fee-free places at TAFE and VET vocational colleges, as well as more skilled migrant visas. CoreLogic research director Eliza Owen commented: “This could add to labour supply to the tune of 22,000 workers, representing 1.7 percent growth in an industry where employment had an average quarterly increase of 0.7 percent over the past decade.”

More construction workers are desperately needed not only to help the Federal Government reach its target of 1.2 million new homes within five years, but also to offset the impact of construction company insolvencies. Ray White economist Nerida Conisbee points out that construction insolvencies continue to rise, with the latest ASIC figures showing 2,758 construction companies entered external administration over the 12 months to 31 March 2024.

Ray White economist Nerida Conisbee says insolvencies remain high in the building industry

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the budget encouraged the states and territories to “kick start building”. He commented: “This Budget means more tradies, fewer barriers to construction, less talk and more homes. This isn’t about one suburb or one city or one state. It’s a challenge facing Australians everywhere and it needs action from every level of government.”

The Federal Government is also seeking to reduce demand in the private rental market following a 43.5 percent surge in the national median rent from $437 per week in August 2020 to $627 per week today, according to CoreLogic. The budget provides money for more social housing, plus a plan to make universities build more student accommodation, thereby removing some demand in the private rental market from low-income workers and domestic and international students.

Budget measures include an additional $423.1 million for the National Agreement on Social Housing and Homelessness, taking total funding to $9.3 billion over five years, under which more social housing will be built and existing housing repaired. REA senior economist Paul Ryan said: “All up, the government expects to support the building of 55,000 new social and affordable homes by 2029 – representing a 12 percent increase in the total number of available homes across the country.”

The plan to legislate new requirements for universities to build more accommodation follows a huge surge in immigration, with an almost 550,000 net increase in migrants over the 12 months to 30 September 2023, the bulk of which were international students and temporary workers.

Commonwealth Rent Assistance is being increased for the second year by 10 percent this time, following a 15 percent increase in last year’s budget. The two boosts represent about a $35 per week increase in assistance to almost one million Australians. The Budget also includes $1 billion for crisis and transitional accommodation for domestic violence victims and youth in distress.

AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said the budget’s housing measures were unlikely enough to meet the goal of building 1.2 million new homes over five years. Dr Oliver said the supply shortfall was set to remain “unless immigration plunges”. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says net overseas migration next year is expected to be half what it was this year.

Dr Oliver said the budget’s housing measures were also unlikely to alter the outlook for home prices. He expects modest growth this year. Median dwelling values have already risen 2.2 percent between January 1 and April 30, following an 8.1 percent lift in 2023.