Robust Demand Pushes U.K. Home Prices to All-Time Highs

Homes hitting the market in the U.K. are more expensive than ever, with prices propelled by a flood of zealous buyers, tax breaks and low mortgage rates, according to a report Monday from Rightmove.

From March 7-April 10, asking prices for newly listed homes jumped 2.1% from the roughly four weeks prior, equating to an increase of £6,733 (A$12,096) that pushed the average national asking price to an all-time high of £327,797 (A$588,909), the online property portal said.

“This is only the second time over the past five years that prices have increased by over 2% in a month, so it’s a big jump, especially bearing in mind that the lockdown restrictions are still limiting the population’s movements and activities,” Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s director of property data, said in the report.

In England, lockdown measures eased last week, and the government has said it hopes to lift almost all restrictions by the tail-end of June if strict conditions are met. Individual timelines are in place in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The property market has remained fully open and operating throughout wider limitations, “and is fully active to such an extent that frenzied buyer activity has helped to push the average price of property coming to market to an all-time high,” Mr. Bannister said.

“The stars have aligned for this spring price surge, with buyers’ new space requirements being part of the constellation alongside cheap mortgages, stamp duty holiday extensions in England and Wales, government support for 95% mortgages and a shortage of suitable property to buy,” he added, noting that the coronavirus vaccination rollout is also injecting growing optimism into the market.

In March, the government announced that it would prolong the stamp duty holiday. Introduced last July, the tax break scrapped the transfer tax on the first £500,000 of a home sale, for a maximum savings of £15,000.

Originally set to expire at the end of March, the initiative has been fully extended until the end of June and will taper off by the end September.

But as those economic support measures begin to come to a close later in the year, “some of the froth is likely to come off this spring surge,” though activity is expected to remain robust for the remainder of the year, the report said.

There has been a substantial increase in the number of Australians earning high incomes who are renting their homes instead of owning them, and this may be another element contributing to higher market demand and continually rising rents, according to new research.

The portion of households with an annual income of $140,000 per year (in 2021 dollars), went from 8 percent of the private rental market in 1996 to 24 percent in 2021, according to research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). The AHURI study highlights that longer-term declines in the rate of home ownership in Australia are likely the cause of this trend.

The biggest challenge this creates is the flow-on effect on lower-income households because they may face stronger competition for a limited supply of rental stock, and they also have less capacity to cope with rising rents that look likely to keep going up due to the entrenched undersupply.

The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report notes that weekly rents have been rising strongly since the pandemic and are currently re-accelerating. “Nationally, annual rent growth has lifted from a recent low of 8.1 percent year-on-year in October 2023, to 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2024,” according to the report. “The re-acceleration was particularly evident in house rents, where annual growth bottomed out at 6.8 percent in the year to September, and rose to 8.4 percent in the year to March 2024.”

Rents are also rising in markets that have experienced recent declines. “In Hobart, rent values saw a downturn of -6 percent between March and October 2023. Since bottoming out in October, rents have now moved 5 percent higher to the end of March, and are just 1 percent off the record highs in March 2023. The Canberra rental market was the only other capital city to see a decline in rents in recent years, where rent values fell -3.8 percent between June 2022 and September 2023. Since then, Canberra rents have risen 3.5 percent, and are 1 percent from the record high.”

The Productivity Commission’s review of the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement points out that high-income earners also have more capacity to relocate to cheaper markets when rents rise, which creates more competition for lower-income households competing for homes in those same areas.

ANZ CoreLogic notes that rents in lower-cost markets have risen the most in recent years, so much so that the portion of earnings that lower-income households have to dedicate to rent has reached a record high 54.3 percent. For middle-income households, it’s 32.2 percent and for high-income households, it’s just 22.9 percent. ‘Housing stress’ has long been defined as requiring more than 30 percent of income to put a roof over your head.

While some high-income households may aspire to own their own homes, rising property values have made that a difficult and long process given the years it takes to save a deposit. ANZ CoreLogic data shows it now takes a median 10.1 years in the capital cities and 9.9 years in regional areas to save a 20 percent deposit to buy a property.

It also takes 48.3 percent of income in the cities and 47.1 percent in the regions to cover mortgage repayments at today’s home loan interest rates, which is far greater than the portion of income required to service rents at a median 30.4 percent in cities and 33.3 percent in the regions.

Robust Demand Pushes U.K. Home Prices to All-Time Highs

Frenzied activity despite continued Covid-19 restrictions pushed the average asking price up.

This may be contributing to continually rising weekly rents