Early sales events push retail spend higher

Early end-of-financial-year promotions and mid-year sales events attracted consumers to the shops in May, with Australian retail turnover rising 0.6 percent, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This compares to a 0.1 percent rise in April and a 0.4 percent fall in March.

Robert Ewing, ABS head of business statistics, said consumers were “watchful” and motivated by discounts amid today’s high cost of living.

“Many retailers started end-of-financial–year sales early, offering larger discounts than usual and noted that shoppers remain price-sensitive in response to persistent cost-of-living pressures,” Mr Ewing said. “Retail businesses continue to rely on discounting and sales events to stimulate discretionary spending, following restrained spending in recent months.”

However, May’s boost belies “stagnant” underlying demand trends. Mr Ewing notes retail trading in trend terms is up by 1.5 percent over the year to May, which is very low. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics at CBA, points out that population growth in 2023 was 2.5 percent, so on a per-capita basis a 1.5 percent lift in spending is exceptionally weak.

Mr Aird said shoppers are “savvy, cautious and price sensitive” and “more tactical than usual when determining when to spend on discretionary items”. Non-food retail was stronger than food retail in May, with the highest rise being a 1.6 percent lift in clothing, footwear, and personal accessories spending. Household goods spending lifted 1.1 percent.

Deloitte Access Economics partner, David Rumbens, says frugality is “back in vogue” with persistently rising prices for essentials like rent, insurance and utilities forcing consumers to cut back on discretionary purchases. An expected reduction in population growth as immigration reduces over the next year may also keep retail spending weak.

Deloitte’s latest retail forecasts point to a rocky road ahead, particularly if unemployment rises. Mr Rumbens said the 3.75 percent lift in minimum and award wages give consumers more spending power but will put pressure on business costs. He points out retail and hospitality insolvencies are increasing in today’s economy.

However, tax cuts and eventual interest rate cuts should lead to more retail spending in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Deloitte forecasts no growth for retail spending overall in 2024 but a 2.5 percent uplift in 2025. “Household goods turnover should pick up more with better economic conditions and with an uplift in national building activity, supported by the Government’s ambitious housing targets,” Mr Rumbens said.

Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market.

The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index.

Energy was the notable exception, gaining more than one per cent as Brent crude traded above US$103 a barrel. Oil had moved higher amid uncertainty surrounding potential US diesel-export restrictions and broader geopolitical supply risks. The move supported energy producers but renewed concern about inflation inputs across transport and the wider economy.

Gold shares were weak even as spot bullion remained historically elevated. The All Ordinaries Gold index fell about 2.25 per cent, showing that equity performance can diverge from the commodity because of valuation, currency, operating and company-specific factors.

Zip was a prominent loser, falling 11.38 per cent after the company reported short sales after the previous close. Nine Entertainment also weakened after UBS analysts warned of near-term revenue challenges associated with its advertising-supported subscription tier.

Premier Investments led larger winners despite caution about the retail environment. Breville, in which Premier owns a significant stake, also appeared among leading movers. In the broader ASX 300 screen, Myer gained 11.43 per cent and MAAS Group rose 7.93 per cent, while Lotus Resources fell 10.53 per cent. These percentage moves should be checked against company announcements and trading liquidity before attributing causes.

The Australian dollar was broadly flat at US70.38 cents. Spot gold was around US$4,280 an ounce, Brent crude approximately US$103.08 a barrel and iron ore near US$96.90 a tonne late in the session.

The rate outlook remains the central domestic catalyst. Labour-market weakness has not eliminated the possibility of an RBA increase next week, leaving banks, listed property and other rate-sensitive sectors exposed to changing expectations.

Market dashboard

S&P/ASX 200: 8,702, down 0.72 per cent.

All Ordinaries: 8,897, down 0.66 per cent.

Best sector: Energy, up more than one per cent.

Weakest areas: Real estate and materials were the major drags; confirm final sector percentages before publication.

Material winner: Premier Investments led the large-company gainers. Confirm its final closing move from the ASX before publication.

Material loser: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.

ASX 300 percentage leader: Myer, up 11.43 per cent.

ASX 300 percentage laggard: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.

AUD/USD: Approximately US$0.7038, broadly flat.

Early sales events push retail spend higher

Discounts prove irresistible to shoppers motivated by cost of living pressures