Australia’s weak economy causing ‘baby recession’ not seen since the 1970s
Kanebridge News
    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,617,430 (-0.29%)       Melbourne $983,992 (+0.22%)       Brisbane $1,009,807 (-0.35%)       Adelaide $906,751 (+1.13%)       Perth $909,874 (+0.75%)       Hobart $736,941 (+0.17%)       Darwin $686,749 (+1.64%)       Canberra $966,289 (-0.61%)       National $1,049,206 (-0.00%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $766,563 (+0.96%)       Melbourne $496,920 (-0.51%)       Brisbane $594,946 (-0.69%)       Adelaide $471,433 (-1.10%)       Perth $470,780 (+0.05%)       Hobart $511,407 (+0.29%)       Darwin $390,827 (+5.09%)       Canberra $473,306 (-0.38%)       National $543,725 (+0.24%)                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 11,294 (+339)       Melbourne 15,418 (-206)       Brisbane 8,328 (+106)       Adelaide 2,290 (+107)       Perth 6,015 (+41)       Hobart 1,117 (+4)       Darwin 282 (+1)       Canberra 1,069 (+44)       National 45,813 (+436)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 9,483 (+156)       Melbourne 8,805 (+44)       Brisbane 1,732 (+14)       Adelaide 433 (+26)       Perth 1,443 (-2)       Hobart 188 (+12)       Darwin 369 (-2)       Canberra 1,049 (+3)       National 23,502 (+251)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $800 ($0)       Melbourne $610 ($0)       Brisbane $640 ($0)       Adelaide $610 (+$10)       Perth $660 ($0)       Hobart $550 ($0)       Darwin $750 (+$25)       Canberra $670 ($0)       National $670 (+$5)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750 ($0)       Melbourne $580 ($0)       Brisbane $620 ($0)       Adelaide $500 ($0)       Perth $610 (-$10)       Hobart $450 ($0)       Darwin $580 ($0)       Canberra $550 ($0)       National $592 (-$1)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 5,754 (-19)       Melbourne 6,704 (+157)       Brisbane 4,270 (+30)       Adelaide 1,344 (-9)       Perth 2,367 (-11)       Hobart 271 (-22)       Darwin 88 (0)       Canberra 520 (-13)       National 21,318 (+113)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 9,969 (-121)       Melbourne 6,440 (+1)       Brisbane 2,292 (+7)       Adelaide 370 (-4)       Perth 636 (-35)       Hobart 114 (-6)       Darwin 178 (+18)       Canberra 808 (+9)       National 20,807 (-131)                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 2.57% (↑)        Melbourne 3.22% (↓)     Brisbane 3.30% (↑)      Adelaide 3.50% (↑)        Perth 3.77% (↓)       Hobart 3.88% (↓)     Darwin 5.68% (↑)      Canberra 3.61% (↑)      National 3.32% (↑)             UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND         Sydney 5.09% (↓)     Melbourne 6.07% (↑)      Brisbane 5.42% (↑)      Adelaide 5.52% (↑)        Perth 6.74% (↓)       Hobart 4.58% (↓)       Darwin 7.72% (↓)     Canberra 6.04% (↑)        National 5.66% (↓)            HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.8% (↑)      Melbourne 0.7% (↑)      Brisbane 0.7% (↑)      Adelaide 0.4% (↑)      Perth 0.4% (↑)      Hobart 0.9% (↑)      Darwin 0.8% (↑)      Canberra 1.0% (↑)      National 0.7% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.9% (↑)      Melbourne 1.1% (↑)      Brisbane 1.0% (↑)      Adelaide 0.5% (↑)      Perth 0.5% (↑)      Hobart 1.4% (↑)      Darwin 1.7% (↑)      Canberra 1.4% (↑)      National 1.1% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND         Sydney 30.9 (↓)       Melbourne 33.2 (↓)     Brisbane 33.0 (↑)        Adelaide 25.3 (↓)       Perth 35.4 (↓)     Hobart 38.5 (↑)        Darwin 42.4 (↓)       Canberra 32.4 (↓)       National 33.9 (↓)            AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND         Sydney 31.9 (↓)       Melbourne 34.3 (↓)       Brisbane 30.0 (↓)     Adelaide 25.1 (↑)        Perth 34.9 (↓)       Hobart 32.8 (↓)     Darwin 44.8 (↑)      Canberra 40.8 (↑)        National 34.3 (↓)           
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Australia’s weak economy causing ‘baby recession’ not seen since the 1970s

Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected

By Bronwyn Allen
Fri, Jul 26, 2024 10:00amGrey Clock 2 min

Australia is in the midst of a baby recession with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families, said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years, Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”   



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How Russia Profits From Ukraine Invasion by Selling Stolen Grain on a Global Black Market

Moscow’s war ‘is feeding itself’ as friends and backers cash in on crops from occupied territories

By BENOIT FAUCON
Mon, Sep 16, 2024 5 min

KYIV, Ukraine—Beyond the bombs and gunfire of Russia’s war in Ukraine , a parallel economic war is raging.

Its front line is on occupied Ukrainian farmlands, from which Russia and its partners have sold almost $1 billion in stolen grain on a burgeoning black market.

Moscow’s forces in Ukraine since 2022 have occupied some of Europe’s most fertile farmland. The occupiers have either seized harvests or bought them cheaply, often forcibly.

The business involves a wide network of clients who benefit from Moscow’s wartime patronage system, including a Russian shipyard equipping the invasion, a company affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and a Crimean businessman who trades with Syria and Israel. Another company sells through the United Arab Emirates.

Trading the looted Ukrainian agricultural products keeps Russia’s allies funded and loyal to Moscow even as it faces mounting economic pressure , offering a sort of off-balance-sheet vehicle financing Kremlin objectives.

The Kremlin didn’t return requests for comment on its exports of Ukrainian crops.

“It’s like the war is feeding itself,” said Pascal Turlan, legal director at rights organization Project Expedite Justice, which is helping Ukrainian prosecutors investigate grain theft. “The illicit trade brings revenue to a Kremlin-sponsored patronage system, which in turn helps the conflict and the occupation to continue.”

The exact commercial value of Russia’s pilferage is difficult to determine amid the war’s chaos and Moscow’s subterfuge, but it is large. Since 2022, the operation has directly shipped at least 4 million tons of grain and other produce from occupied Ukraine to international markets, generating revenue of $800 million, said Markiyan Dmytrasevych, Ukraine’s deputy agriculture minister.

Much more has been exported by land or small ships, according to Ukrainian nonprofit organization Texty, which estimates the total value of grain taken by Russia in occupied territories could be as high as $6.4 billion.

The patronage take many forms. Three bulk vessels that export large volumes of illicit grain are owned through a chain of corporate entities by Russia’s state-run United Shipbuilding Corp., which also produced warships used to shell Ukrainian cities, according to the U.S. government.

A Russian company that exclusively sold grain from the occupied region of Zaporizhzhia donated 10 million rubles, or $111,000, to a battalion fighting in the province, according to a document obtained by KibOrg News, a Ukrainian project that documents Russian economic-looting activities in the occupied territories.

Moscow is also attacking Ukraine’s own grain exports. Late Wednesday, a Russian missile struck at a ship that was carrying Ukrainian wheat just after it had left a Black Sea port for Egypt, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said on his Telegram channel.

From farm to sea
Russia’s illicit agricultural trade begins on Ukrainian farms. Moscow’s forces either compel farmers to sell their crops at below-market prices or steal them, sometimes at gunpoint.

Bohdan Katerenyak, the manager of a silo in Kherson, a southern Ukrainian province conquered by Russia at the beginning of the war, said he was at work in August 2022 when men with machine guns, clad in balaclavas, entered his office.

“We have an order to take over,” one told him in a Chechen accent, handing him an identification card from the FSB, Russia’s domestic security service, Katerenyak said. A few days later, another man, also claiming to be an FSB agent, arrived and impounded the facility’s grain.

“They are bandits,” Katerenyak said of the men. Fearful, he fled to Ukrainian-controlled territory and later learned the silos had been emptied.

From farms like Katerenyak’s, produce is shipped by truck and rail to ports along the Black Sea, some on occupied Ukrainian territory.

Russian authorities say that in the first half of this year they sent 15 ships carrying 81,000 tons of wheat to Turkey from Mariupol, another city conquered during the war.

Turkey bans ships from occupied Ukrainian terminals and cooperates with Kyiv to block illicit trade, the country’s foreign-affairs officials said.

Separately, Ukrainian prosecutor Ihor Ponochovniy in June started tracking a Turkish-owned ship, the Usko MFU, which he suspected had carried stolen grain last year from the Crimean port of Sevastopol . Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and in 2022 linked it with occupied Kherson.

Ukraine’s border force in June told Ponochovniy the Usko MFU had entered Ukrainian waters. He issued a search warrant and police boarded it. Onboard they found records showing it had left Sevastopol last November for Turkey carrying 2,100 tons of crushed sunflower seeds and brown wheat potentially worth half a million dollars.

Investigators said they found onboard a message from the ship’s managers to the captain instructing him to conceal the cargo’s Crimean origin. Ukraine’s border force in July seized the Usko MFU.

The ship’s owner, USKO Shipping Management, didn’t respond to a request for comment. A lawyer representing the vessel’s captain declined to comment.

Mikhail Ganaga, a former professional wrestler and the son of a district governor in Crimea, is among a select group of collaborators who have profited from the grain theft.

Ganaga controls Agro-Fregat LLC, which delivers grain harvested in occupied territories and has shipped grain to Israel and two of its foes, Syria and Iran, according to trade and shipping records and Ganaga himself. Ganaga and Agro-Fregat didn’t return requests for comment.

Pressure to halt shipments

Ukraine is applying diplomatic pressure on importing countries, with some success. In the past two years, Egypt, Israel and Lebanon either canceled loadings or stopped buying grain cargoes after Ukrainian diplomats told them they had departed from Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine , according to Ukrainian officials.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhiy said that Lebanon shifted to Ukrainian grain. Egypt has refused some grain shipments that originated in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.

Russian allies Iran and Syria have said they won’t abide by sanctions. Iran has supplied the Kremlin deadly weaponry that enhanced Russia’s ability to hit military and civilian targets. This month, Tehran started to supply ballistic missiles to the Kremlin. Iranian politicians said they were in exchange for Russian grain.

Tehran buys barley in Crimea for $140 a ton, a 34% discount from market prices, said Kateryna Yaresko, an analyst at SeaKrime, a nonprofit project in Kyiv that tracks illegal shipments from Crimea and provides information to the Ukrainian authorities.

Traders in Russian-occupied territories are building ties with Tehran’s hard-line circles. Igor Rudetsky, a manager at a grain terminal in occupied Crimea, last year posted on his social-media accounts pictures of himself meeting representatives of Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, which is sanctioned by the U.S. for shipping weapons on behalf of Iran’s military and nuclear technologies.

Rudetsky, according to his posts, also visited Pars Holding, an agricultural company that is part of a foundation controlled by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei . Rudetsky said by text message that he spoke to the companies as part of an international marketing campaign that also included China, India and Africa, though he says he doesn’t sell produce himself.

Rudetsky said grain exports from Russia aren’t restricted by international sanctions and that he bought the port “for real money” in a deal that was “legally impeccable.”

Russia deems Crimea its territory but other countries don’t and consider any exports from it illegal.

Yemen is a new market for Crimean exports. In June, a Russian state-controlled vessel, the Zafar, delivered grains to al-Salif, a port held by the Iranian-backed Houthi faction in Yemen, according to shipping and corporate records.

As Kyiv cracks down, exporters are adopting increasingly complex evasion tactics such as transferring grain to Russia and mixing it with legitimate products before reselling it on international markets. Ukrainian authorities are struggling to keep up.

“We need more people,” said Ponochovniy, the prosecutor.

Ukrainian prosecutors in Kharkiv are probing a trader that it suspects stole grain and resold cargoes to an Emirati company. Helios Plus drew prosecutors’ attention after it removed all 700 tons of grain left at a bread factory flour mill in the nearby town of Kupyansk when Russia seized it in August 2022.

Helios Plus didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The company in 2015 started selling grain out of areas of eastern Ukraine that had come under control of Russian-backed separatists, according to Russian records viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The records were obtained in an investigation by Project Expedite Justice.

The documents indicate Helios Plus took a large volume of grain from other occupied territories in the past two years. It then sold the grain to buyers in Turkey, the U.A.E. and as far as Costa Rica, according to customs declarations.

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11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

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Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

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