Boeing Stock Got Hammered. Why This Analyst Downgrade Terrified Investors.

Boeing stock has fallen to its lowest level since 2022 after a downgrade from a Wall Street analyst put a number on one of investors’ worst fears: stock dilution.

Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Akers on Tuesday downgraded Boeing stock to the equivalent of Sell from Hold. His price target was reduced to $119 a share from $185.

That is the lowest target price on Wall Street by almost $70 a share, according to FactSet. At $119 a share, down about 30% from recent levels, Boeing would have a market value of roughly $73 billion, levels not seen since early 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Boeing stock closed down 7.3% at $161.02, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were off 2.1% and 1.5%, respectively. It was the lowest close since Nov. 4, 2022, when it finished at $160.01, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

“We think Boeing had a generational free cash flow opportunity this decade, driven by ramping production on mature aircraft and low investment need,” wrote Akers. “But after extensive delays and added cost, we now see growing production cash flow running into a undefined new aircraft investment cycle, capping free cash flow a few years out.”

At this point in its product cycle, Boeing simply should be generating north of $10 billion in free cash flow a year. However, production and quality problems have pushed output lower and added costs. Wall Street sees Boeing using almost $8 billion in cash to fund operations in 2024.

What is more, Boeing likely will need to design a new single-aisle jet in the coming years to better compete with the Airbus A321 family of aircraft. That will take tens of billions of dollars spread out over several years.

Akers sees $30 billion in equity being raised by 2026 to help cover the cost of new investment. Some of that hefty total will go toward repairing Boeing’s balance sheet. The company ended the second quarter with more than $53 billion in long-term debt, up from less than $11 billion at the end of 2018, before the pandemic and significant problems with Boeing’s 737 MAX jet.

Raising $30 billion of equity at recent prices would require issuing roughly 190 million new shares, increasing the share count by about 31%. All things being equal, a higher share count reduces earnings per share.

“If Boeing were to postpone new plane development for several more years (launch early next decade) and instead just pay down debt, we estimate free cash flow per share could grow to about ~$20 late this decade,” added Akers. That might justify a $150 share price in coming years, but postponing a new plane would mean “ ceding significant narrowbody share” to Airbus.

Narrowbody is industry jargon for single-aisle aircraft such as the 737 MAX or A320.

Raising equity and offering customers a new plane, or not offering a new jet and holding off on raising equity: Boeing doesn’t have easy choices to make in coming years.

Overall, 60% of analysts covering Boeing stock rate shares at Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. Even though Boeing’s Buy-rating ratio is above average, it has been sliding. Coming into the year, before an emergency- door plug blew out in midair on an Alaska Air flight on Jan. 5, the ratio was north of 75%.

The average analyst price target for Boeing shares is about $214.