Eurozone Inflation Hits Decade High as Bottlenecks Bite
Jump in inflation will test the European Central Bank’s readiness to let the economy run hot
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LONDON—Inflation in the eurozone hit its highest level in almost a decade in August amid signs that shortages of semiconductors and other important manufacturing components are pushing up the prices paid by consumers.
Broad consumer prices were 3% higher in August than a year earlier, a pickup from the 2.2% rate of inflation recorded in July and the sharpest rise since November 2011.
The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation at 2%, but last month explicitly said it would leave its key interest rate steady if a period of inflation running above that goal appeared likely to be “transitory.”
Inflation rates have picked up around the world in recent months, largely driven by rising energy costs as a rebound in demand proves stronger than oil and other energy producers had anticipated. But there are signs that shortages of key parts such as microprocessors are also pushing consumer prices higher, threatening a lengthier period of stronger inflation.
“Clearly, risks that inflationary pressures prove more sustainable are on the rise,” wrote Fabio Balboni, an economist at HSBC, in a note to clients.
The jump in inflation comes as ECB rate-setters prepare for their next policy announcement on Sept. 9. They have said the leap in inflation is likely to prove to be the temporary result of shortfalls in the supply of a narrow range of goods and services that will ease as economies around the world reopen more fully.
That is a view shared by many U.S. policy makers. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed Friday the central bank’s plan to begin reversing its easy-money policies later this year and staked out a position that calls for more patience around when to raise rates. U.S. inflation is higher than it is in the eurozone, reflecting the stronger economic recovery.
Economists think ECB policy makers may slightly trim their bond purchases to reflect a strengthening economic recovery, but will otherwise reassure eurozone households and businesses that borrowing costs won’t soon rise.
“We expect that the ECB will continue to communicate that monetary policy will remain loose for long to avoid any premature tightening of financing conditions,” said Silvia Ardagna, an economist at Barclays.
In forecasts to be released next week, the central bank is expected to predict slightly higher inflation this year, but continue to see the pace of price rises slowing in 2022 and 2023, with the inflation rate once again settling below target. That suggests that the central bank may not raise its key interest rate—which has been below zero for more than seven years—until 2024.
ECB policy makers last month overhauled their policy framework to give themselves room to let the economy run hotter than in the past. The eurozone economy suffered a larger drop in output than the U.S. in 2020 and was once again in recession around the turn of the year.
In the second quarter of 2021, the eurozone’s economy was still 3% smaller than it was at the end of 2019, while the U.S. economy had returned to its pre-pandemic size. But the eurozone economy grew faster than its U.S. counterpart in the three months through June and should return to its pre-pandemic size by the end of this year.
ECB policy makers want to aid the recovery by reassuring households and businesses that they won’t repeat the mistakes of a decade ago, when their predecessors raised their key interest rate before the recovery from the global financial crisis had put down deep roots. What followed those rate increases was 18 months of economic contraction and a long period of very low inflation rates.
Now, policy makers believe they are on strong ground in seeing the pickup in inflation as the economy reopens as temporary. Part of the recent acceleration in price rises is down to tax changes in Germany, the eurozone’s largest member. In July 2020, the government there cut value-added tax to aid the economy, but those cuts were reversed at the start of this year. So prices now are being compared with artificially lower prices a year ago, exaggerating the strength of inflationary pressures.
There are risks to the ECB’s new patience. One is that the problems manufacturers are facing in securing raw materials and parts will prove longer lasting than initially anticipated. In a number of Asian countries where many of those parts are made, the spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant is threatening fresh delays.
“It looks like bottlenecks are going to be more persistent than expected,” said ECB chief economist Philip Lane in an interview with Reuters published last week.
The August inflation figures may carry a warning, since they recorded a sharp acceleration in the rate at which prices of manufactured goods are increasing, to 2.7% from just 0.7% in July.
“This could be a sign that rising input prices and supply problems are starting to put some upward pressure on consumer prices,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, an economist at Capital Economics.
By contrast, prices of services rose by just 1.1% over the year, and energy costs continued to drive much of the pickup in inflation, with prices rising 15.4% over the year, up from 14.3% in July.
The other risk is that eurozone workers will come to expect inflation to settle above the ECB’s inflation target, and demand higher pay rises to compensate. So far, there are few signs that this is happening. According to a survey by the European Commission released Monday, households in August expected prices to rise faster over the coming 12 months than they did in July, but at a pace that remained modest by historic standards.
Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: August 31, 2021
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Shares in European banks such as UniCredit have been on a tear
4 min
After years in the doldrums, European banks have cleaned up their balance sheets, cut costs and started earning more on loans.
The result: Stock prices have surged and lenders are preparing to hand back some $130 billion to shareholders this year. Even dealmaking within the sector, long a taboo topic, is back, with BBVA of Spain resurrecting an approach for smaller rival Sabadell .
The resurgence is enriching a small group of hedge funds and others who started building contrarian bets on European lenders when they were out of favour. Beneficiaries include hedge-fund firms such as Basswood Capital Management and so-called value investors such as Pzena Investment Management and Smead Capital Management.
It is also bringing in new investors, enticed by still-depressed share prices and promising payouts.
“There’s still a lot of juice left to squeeze,” said Bennett Lindenbaum, co-founder of Basswood, a hedge-fund firm based in New York that focuses on the financial sector.
Basswood began accumulating positions around 2018. European banks were plagued by issues including political turmoil in Italy and money-laundering scandals . Meanwhile, negative interest rates had hammered profits.
Still, Basswood’s team figured valuations were cheap, lenders had shored up capital and interest rates wouldn’t stay negative forever. The firm set up a European office and scooped up stock in banks such as Deutsche Bank , UniCredit and BNP Paribas .
Fast forward to 2024, and European banking stocks are largely beating big U.S. banks this year. Shares in many, such as Germany’s largest lender Deutsche Bank , have hit multiyear highs .
A long-only version of Basswood’s European banks and financials strategy—which doesn’t bet on stocks falling—has returned approximately 18% on an annualised basis since it was launched in 2021, before fees and expenses, Lindenbaum said.
The industry’s turnaround reflects years spent cutting costs and jettisoning bad loans, plus tougher operating rules that lifted capital levels. That meant banks were primed to profit when benchmark interest rates turned positive in 2022.
On a key measure of profitability, return on equity, the continent’s 20 largest banks overtook U.S. counterparts last year for the first time in more than a decade, Deutsche Bank analysts say.
Reflecting their improved health, European banks could spend almost as much as 120 billion euros, or nearly $130 billion, on dividends and share buybacks this year, according to Bank of America analysts.
If bank mergers pick up, that could mean takeover offers at big premiums for investors in smaller lenders. European banks were so weak for so long, dealmaking stalled. Acquisitive larger banks like BBVA could reap the rewards of greater scale and cost efficiencies, assuming they don’t overpay.
“European banks, in general, are cheaper, better capitalised, more profitable and more shareholder friendly than they have been in many years. It’s not surprising there’s a lot of new investor interest in identifying the winners in the sector,” said Gustav Moss, a partner at the activist investor Cevian Capital, which has backed institutions including UBS .
As central banks move to cut interest rates, bumper profits could recede, but policy rates aren’t likely to return to the negative levels banks endured for almost a decade. Stock prices remain modest too, with most far below the book value of their assets.
Among the biggest winners are investors in UniCredit . Shares in the Italian lender have more than quadrupled since Andrea Orcel became chief executive in 2021, reaching their highest levels in more than a decade.
Under the former UBS banker, UniCredit has boosted earnings and started handing large sums back to shareholders , after convincing the European Central Bank the business was strong enough to make large payouts.
Orcel said European banks are increasingly attracting investors like hedge funds with a long-term view, and with more varied portfolios, like pension funds.
He said that investor-relations staff initially advised him that visiting U.S. investors was important to build relationships—but wasn’t likely to bear fruit, given how they viewed European banks. “Now Americans ask you for meetings,” Orcel said.
UniCredit is the second-largest position in Phoenix-based Smead Capital’s $126 million international value fund. It started investing in August 2022, when UniCredit shares traded around €10. They now trade at about €35.
Cole Smead , the firm’s chief executive, said the stock has further to run, partly because UniCredit can now consider buying rivals on the cheap.
Sentiment has shifted so much that for some investors, who figure the biggest profits are to be made betting against the consensus, it might even be time to pull back. A recent Bank of America survey found regional investors had warmed to European banks, with 52% of respondents judging the sector attractive.
And while bets on banks are now paying off, trying to bottom-fish in European banking stocks has burned plenty of investors over the past decade. Investments have tied up money that could have made far greater returns elsewhere.
Deutsche Bank, for instance, underwent years of scandals and big losses before stabilising under Chief Executive Christian Sewing . Rewarding shareholders, he said, is now the bank’s priority.
U.S. private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management built stakes in Deutsche Bank and domestic rival Commerzbank in 2017, only to sell a chunk when shares were down in 2022. The investor struggled to make changes at Commerzbank.
A Cerberus spokesman said it remains “bullish and committed to the sector,” with bank investments in Poland and France. It retains shares in both Deutsche and Commerzbank, and is an investor in another German lender, the unlisted Hamburg Commercial Bank.
Similarly, Capital Group also invested in both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, only to sell roughly 5% stakes in both banks in 2022—at far below where they now trade. Last month, Capital Group disclosed buying shares again in Deutsche Bank, lifting its holding above 3%. A spokeswoman declined to comment.
U.S.-based Pzena, which manages some $64 billion in assets, has backed banks such as UBS and U.K.-listed HSBC , NatWest and Barclays .
Pzena reckoned balance sheets, capital positions and profitability would all eventually improve, either through higher interest rates or as business models shifted. Still, some changes took longer than expected. “I don’t think anyone would have thought the ECB would keep rates negative for eight or nine years,” said portfolio manager Miklos Vasarhelyi.
Some Pzena investments date as far back as 2009 and 2010, Vasarhelyi said. “We’ve been waiting for this to turn for a long time.”
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