What China Must Do to Contain Evergrande Fallout

China’s second-largest real-estate developer by revenue—with liabilities equal to around 2% of the country’s gross domestic product—is in danger of going under. After weeks of ignoring Evergrande’s wobbles, on Monday Wall Street finally stood up and listened: the S&P 500 dropped 2% and global bond funds, some of them invested heavily in Chinese developers’ dollar debt, retreated. Evergrande must pay approx. $115 million in bond interest on Thursday, and is fending off protests and court cases from its domestic suppliers, customers and investors.

A default on dollar debt or at least a deep haircut is likely. Large-scale financial turmoil in China isn’t inevitable. If Evergrande’s woes further infect the broader real-estate market or Beijing doesn’t act quickly enough to restructure the company’s businesses and its onshore debts in an orderly manner, it may not be far behind.

In years past, such a large, important firm would almost certainly have been bailed out. Housing is the third rail of China’s political economy—where most household wealth is parked, a giant liability for China’s banks, and tied to around a fifth of economic activity. But President Xi Jinping has demonstrated a far higher tolerance for economic risk than his immediate predecessors, in part because he has cowed potential rivals so effectively. Evergrande’s woes are a direct result of a new, steely-eyed policy forcing developers to meet tough metrics on debt instituted last year.

As long as onshore financial contagion is manageable, Xi may allow some bondholders—particularly foreign ones—to be wiped out in service of larger policy goals. And so far, signs of that broader onshore contagion are limited. One reason: many of Evergrande’s large domestic creditors like banks are owned by the government, which can both force them to absorb immediate losses and also tide them over with liquidity while working to engineer eventual recapitalizations. Beijing has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to corral debtors and big creditors and force them to come to an agreement behind the scenes, as in the case of Baoshang Bank’s 2019 crisis.

Evergrande’s offshore bonds are trading at deeply distressed levels. And yields on the dollar bonds of some other large, highly indebted developers like Sunac have shot higher, too: Sunac’s June 2022 issue, which was trading at a 6% yield in early September, now yields 17%, according to FactSet. But, although onshore money-market rates have risen modestly, there are few signs of contagion to key bank funding instruments or to the onshore bond market more broadly outside of real estate.

The real problem isn’t Evergrande’s big creditors but the small ones and the damage to already-weak real-estate sentiment more broadly from an extended, messy reorganisation. That could quickly translate into broader problems for the industry as a whole, the real economy and banks.

Evergrande has massive borrowings but it also owed, as of June, around US$180 billion to individual homeowners, its contractors and others in the form of outstanding accounts payable and so-called contract liabilities—mostly unbuilt homes owed to buyers. More than half of its projects nationwide have been halted, according to local financial media outlet Caixin. And this comes as nationwide housing sales are already down 20% year over year by value in August.

The last thing China’s real-estate market and its financial system need is a buyers’ strike from homeowners watching Evergrande customers get stiffed. To hit new regulatory targets by mid 2023, Chinese developers in aggregate need to shed 18 trillion yuan ($2.78 trillion) of liabilities over the next two years, according to Goldman Sachs. And that assumes no further land purchases over that time period. Robust housing sales will be needed, but unless Beijing acts swiftly to ensure that Evergrande’s customers get their due, arresting the steep drop in national housing sales may prove difficult.

The simplest solution would be a government-mediated takeover of Evergrande’s unfinished projects by a group of other developers in exchange for Evergrande’s existing inventory and massive land bank, lubricated with additional state finance. But with the land market already frozen up—transactions by value were down 90% in the first 12 days of September year over year, according to Nomura—developers are presumably dragging their feet. If the situation drags on and Evergrande has to keep pawning off its existing properties at fire-sale rates, that could also be a further drag on the property market as a whole, given how large the company is. Evergrande alone accounted for around 4% of the residential property market in 2020, according to Fitch Ratings.

The land market itself is another possible route for financial contagion, since land sales form such an important part of local government revenue in China. So-called local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds, used by local governments to get around formal budget constraints, account for a significant proportion of the market: around 30% of total outstanding onshore bond debt, after excluding formal government and policy bank bonds, according to Wind.

Clearly much depends on how quickly Beijing is able to assemble a coalition of developers to assume Evergrande’s contract liabilities or find another solution to avoid a disorderly sale of its assets and a big financial hit to its customers and suppliers.

If a solution does appear soon and Beijing acts to further ease overall monetary policy, there are some reasons for cautious optimism that China can still avoid a truly punishing property downturn. Prices in major coastal markets were still mostly rising in August, although many smaller so-called third- and fourth-tier markets are beginning to turn down. And property inventories nationwide are much lower, on average, than at the beginning of the last major housing downturn in 2015, which could help put a floor under prices if sentiment itself recovers a bit: one-and-a-half years of sales, according to ANZ Bank, against two-and-a-half years in 2015. Finally, although Chinese banks have large mortgage exposure, unlike in the U.S. Chinese mortgages are generally “full recourse,” meaning debtors remain on the hook for payments even after losing their home. That may help keep delinquencies in check, even if prices do fall sharply.

A significant hit to growth in late 2021 and early 2022 does seem unavoidable now, but if Beijing acts decisively it could still avoid something worse. The next few weeks—usually the frothiest season in China’s real-estate market—will be crucial.

Curb appeal—the attractiveness of one’s property—is everything when deciding to sell, rent, or simply add value to your home. That’s why Australians spend approximately $1 billion per year on property renovations.

“I am seeing smart investors and homebuyers now actively looking to upgrade, capitalising on opportunities in the market,” said Nunzio Bagnato, consultant at Homebuyers Centre Victoria. “It’s no longer just about looking for a specific price point; buyers are willing to pay extra for quality.”

From strategic renovations to expert upgrades, there are many ways in which you can add value to your property, no matter your budget. Whether you’re a seasoned investor looking to maximise returns, or a savvy homeowner wanting to spruce up your living space, look to these 10 ideas for maximising your home’s aesthetic and appeal…and in the process, add value to your property.

—

1). A fresh paint job goes a long way

A fresh coat of paint applied to tired walls, whether on the exterior or interior, can do wonders for your home says interior designer and stylist, Jono Fleming.

“Give your space a makeover with paint to create a fresh and elevated look. This is an accessible tool to introduce colour into your home, which serves to transform the mood and feeling of a space,” he says.

“Colour is an incredibly powerful design tool, however itʼs incredibly important that the end result feels grounded and draws people into the space. I recently refreshed a bedroom in my family’s farmhouse using Fantan and Canyon Cloud from the 2024 Dulux Colour Forecast Muse palette, which has converted the space into a vibrant retreat filled with warmth and new life.”

Besides the obvious — paint acts as a protective barrier against the elements such as rain, UV rays, and moisture — a fresh paint job can immediately add value to your home. If you have some minor imperfections, such as cracks or dents, spend some time on prep before you paint for a better finish and a more durable result. For exteriors, lighter colours are a surefire winner.

“There’s a lot of interest generated from colours; a neutral palette appeals to a broader range of buyers,” says Mr Bagnato.

2). Landscape the garden

A well-kept, manicured garden can add thousands of dollars to the value of your home. If we learned nothing from the pandemic, it’s the value of a private, well-designed outdoor area. Spending time on landscaping your front garden will not only enhance street appeal, but can also increase the functionality providing areas for relaxation, entertaining, and recreational purposes across the site.

A well-designed garden including green space, paved areas, room for entertaining and water features, can also increase your property value by up to 20 percent, according to a study conducted by the University of Western Australia. For smaller areas such as apartments or townhomes, consider seeking help from a gardening specialist who can advise on the best pots, plants and flowers depending on the orientation and soil type of your garden.

3). Your home’s facade says a lot

The very first thing that people will see when looking to purchase their next property is the facade. Even when people are searching online, it’s often the very first image shown on a listing, and one that can make or break a property in a matter of seconds. A visually appealing frontage can set your home apart from neighbours, and can really set the tone for what visitors, future buyers, or investors can expect when they walk through the door.

Patrick Cooney, director of sales at Melbourne-based Milieu Property, agrees that the facade of a home leaves people wanting more.

“The vast majority of people only ever get to see and experience the exterior of a building,” he says. “This is an advertisement for those who walk and drive past. Having amazing architecture and landscaping leaves people wanting to know more.”

4). Who doesn’t love new flooring?

It’s always immediately apparent when a vendor has spent the time and money upgrading their home’s flooring. Besides changing the look and feel of your interiors, investing in high-quality flooring materials, such as sustainable wooden floorboards for common areas such as your living and dining space, and carpet for bedrooms, can immediately increase the perceived value of your home.

One factor to keep in mind is that upgrading your flooring is not only a costly exercise but a disruptive one at that, so careful planning is encouraged.

5). Add that new kitchen

Should homeowners ever consider the need to renovate their homes, the kitchen is often top of the list. However small or large, adding a new kitchen to your home can do a lot for adding value to your home. Why? Recent studies conducted by OnePoll suggest that individuals spend over 1000 hours a year in their kitchen. Whether it’s preparing meals, eating meals, or working from the kitchen bench top, having a kitchen that is accessible, practical but also aesthetically pleasing is every home owner’s dream. Costs vary widely but be aware that there’s not a lot of economy of scale involved. Designing and installing a small kitchen often doesn’t cost significantly less than a larger one.

6). Consider art and furnishings

Another great way to elevate the look and feel of your home—and add value in the process—is through the addition of decorative pieces and furnishings.

“Art, display books and uniquely shaped vessels add interest and are an easy way to introduce colour, achieving a cohesive palette,” Mr Fleming says.

Avoid generic prints and go for something bolder, like vintage advertising posters to add personality to the room. Original art, sourced either directly from the artist, through galleries or at auction is a great way to add a luxe feel to a room. Beyond solid walls, Mr Fleming says window coverings can also benefit from the right dressing.

“Curtains, in particular, are often overlooked as an interior design tool, but theyʼre such an easy way to add colour to your space without it feeling too permanent and can completely change the ambiance or mood within a space.”

7). Upgrade your bathroom

After the kitchen, bathrooms are high on the priority list for buyers. If you’re planning on selling soon, you can make a considerable difference by taking small steps; replacing older sinks and toilets, upgraded hardware and new lighting can instantly transform your bathroom. If you’re planning to stay, or you’re keen to create that ‘wow’ factor for would-be buyers, opting for additions like a double vanity, walk-in shower, bathtub, or simply choosing premium materials such as marble or other natural stone, can all make a significant difference to the value of your home.

If you have more than one bathroom to renovate, consider mixing up materials and fittings while staying with the same colour palette for a cohesive look.

8). Be inventive, add storage

Storage—or the lack thereof—is something all homeowners have to deal with. For many first homebuyers or renters, storage is likely one of those additions worth its weight in gold. So, as a homeowner, adding thoughtful and meaningful storage solutions can go a long way in adding appeal to prospective buyers.

“Smart storage solutions can change one’s home from a nice home to a great home. The majority of people have a plethora of ‘stuff’ and finding a place for these are key,” said Mr Cooney.

“Whether its dropping off your keys and a dog lead in your welcome station by the front door, to having an appliance nook for your coffee machine and toaster, or ensuing you have the basics like adequate bathroom storage that accommodate a hair dryer, these are all incredibly important considerations.”

9). Is your home ‘smart’?

Integrating ‘smart’ technology is something we’re likely to see more homeowners do. While the outlay and time spent in setting up a smart home can deter some, considering things like integrated security systems, sensor blinds, keyless entry systems, smart lighting controlled via your phone, and indoor/outdoor entertainment systems can appeal to tech-savvy buyers (and ultimately increase your property’s value).

“Smart tech for the home can be pushed as far as people are wanting. At Milieu, we generally now include smart locks, smart parcel lockers, energy monitoring and number plate recognition access to basements to our new developments,” said Mr Cooney.

“In our last three projects, we have specified VZug appliances which can also be controlled from the touch of your phone.”

10). Sustainability is key

As we all look to add sustainable measures to our homes for a better, brighter, and greener future, energy efficiency in and around our homes will only become increasingly sought-after among home buyers. This can be done by installing solar panels or energy-efficient windows and doors, installing skylights, opting for appliances that save on power, and increasing ways that save on utility bills, like swapping gas for electric induction stovetops.

“Buyers are highly focused on sustainability and future-proofing their homes,” said Mr. Cooney. “Highly sustainable buildings, with EV provisions are key. People place a premium for sustainability and especially EV charging – the mindset has change from, ‘I may get an electric vehicle’ to ‘when I get an electric vehicle’.”

Adding an EV charging station, should you own a hybrid or electric vehicle, is a great initiative to consider for your home. Not only can an EV charging station power your vehicle, but its power can also be offset to power parts of your home.

—

What China Must Do to Contain Evergrande Fallout

Biggest risk to China is from Evergrande’s small creditors, not its large ones.