Gold Is Way Down. Here’s When To Worry.

Gold has fallen from its lofty August levels. The precious metal appears to be at a crossroads, but the price likely has to slide more from here in order for investors to get really spooked.

The price of gold ran up 37% between March 15, 2020—roughly when investors were most fearful about the economic damage from the Covid 19 pandemic—and August 2, 2020. That day, gold hit an all-time high of US$2,028, as seen by the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00). Even though stocks rose in that time span, demand for haven assets remained strong, as there weren’t many meaningful signs that the world would soon emerge from the pandemic.

Since hitting a record, the commodity has fallen 9% to date. “The long-term uptrend in gold is teetering on the edge,” wrote Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research in a note.

While gold has been in a concerning downtrend of late, gold-related stocks offer some optimism for the precious metal. Gold mining stocks are typically correlated with the actual commodity price. As an example, Goepfert highlights the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which has largely echoed gold’s moves over the past year. The ETF rose more than twofold between mid-March and early August, before falling 20% from the August level to date.

But now gold mining stocks suggest there could be brighter days ahead for the commodity. Roughly 20% of gold mining stocks have been trading above their 200-day moving averages on most days in the past two weeks, down from more than 85% of those stocks recently, Goepfert said. This cycle has occurred several times in the past few years and usually precedes gains for most gold stocks in the coming three-month period, Goepfert says.

Even if gold price trends cannot reverse themselves, it likely isn’t time to get too bearish yet. The key price level to watch for the contract for the actual metal is US$1780, according to Sevens Report Research. A dip below that would be a negative signal, representing a double-digit percentage drop from the current level. Gold dropped to around that level in late November, but quickly popped back.

Gold may be at a fork in the road, but investors might not want to unload their gold holdings just yet.

South Australia is currently the strongest state or territory economy in the country, with economic activity 9.1 percent above its decade-average in the December quarter, according to CommSec research. NSW was second with economic output running 8.6 percent above its long-run average, followed by Victoria with 8.5 percent, the ACT at 8.3 percent and Western Australia at 6 percent.

Economic activity in both Queensland and Tasmania was 4.5 percent above average while the Northern Territory underperformed its long-term average by 0.5 percent.

The CommSec research ranks states and territories on several key economic metrics and compares the latest quarterly data with each area’s decade average. South Australia ranks first on four of the eight key indicators. They are economic growth, unemployment, construction and dwelling starts.

Western Australia ranks first on population growth and business and equipment investment. Population growth has been a key element in Perth and regional Western Australia becomingthe country’s hottest property markets over the past 12 months. CoreLogic figures released this week show home values are up 21.1 percent in Perth and 13.3 percent in the state’s regions.

Despite high inflation, retail spending remained above the long-term average in all states and territories in the December quarter. The ACT led with retail expenditure 12.2 percent higher than its long-term average, followed by Western Australia with 11.3 percent, Victoria at 11.2percent and Queensland at 11.1 percent.

Queensland is in the top spot for new home loans. Propelling this is very strong internal migration and a doubling of the First Home Owners Grant to $30,000 from 20 November last year. New home loans issued to first home buyers in November surged to a 15-month high, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Queensland is currently the second strongest housing market, with home values up 16.1 percent in Brisbane and 11.2 percent in regional areas over the past year.

In all states and territories except the Northern Territory, housing finance commitments remained above decade averages in the December quarter. The value of home loans in Queensland was 21.1 percent higher than the state’s long-term average. The next strongest was Western Australia, up 17.5 percent, South Australia, up 14.2 percent, and the ACT, up 12 percent. The new CoreLogic data reveals 15 consecutive months of growth in the national median price, despite high interest rates.

Gold Is Way Down. Here’s When To Worry.

CommSec research reveals this state is leading the country in economic growth, unemployment, construction and dwelling starts