Diamond Prices Regain Their Sparkle
Pent-up jewellery demand has lifted the gems’ valuations while online sales have grown.
Pent-up jewellery demand has lifted the gems’ valuations while online sales have grown.
Diamond prices have rebounded from a coronavirus-driven slump thanks to the reopening of some economies in Asia and strong jewellery sales around the world over the holiday period.
Polished diamond prices are up 5.1% from their lowest point in March, putting them at their highest level in nearly a year and a half, according to a gauge compiled by the International Diamond Exchange.
The pandemic dealt a big blow to the diamond industry last year, with every link in the supply chain—from Russian miners to India’s diamond cutters to luxury boutiques in New York—being closed or seeing activity curtailed.
But demand for diamond jewellery has been steadily recovering since retailers began reopening last summer in Asia, tentatively followed by elsewhere in the world, analysts said. With international vacations on ice and restaurants in many parts of the world still closed, wealthy individuals are buying diamonds with surprising voracity.
“This is the most bullish market for diamonds I have seen in probably a decade,” said Paul Zimnisky, founder of research firm Diamond Analytics.
Because diamonds come in a variety of shapes, sizes, colours and qualities, the industry lacks a benchmark price. But market watchers say both rough, mined diamonds and polished stones bought by consumers have seen their prices approach pre-pandemic levels.
A one-carat polished diamond of slightly above-average quality currently sells for US$5,900, Mr Zimnisky said. That is up 14% from a low point in April, while an equivalent rough diamond rose 18% in that time, he said.
Prices popped in December, thanks to strong holiday sales and pent-up demand that built during lockdowns. December is typically a strong time, with jewellery sales normally rising around 120% from November, said Edahn Golan, who runs an Israel-based diamond-market research firm. This year they jumped 160%, he said.
Still, the pandemic’s impact on jewellery sales hasn’t been uniform. Sales of diamond stud earrings saw the largest year-over-year growth of all jewellery categories in 2020, Mr Golan said, as the desire to look good in video calls boosted demand for adornments worn from the shoulders up.
The pandemic also pushed the industry to embrace new technology at a faster rate. Before lockdowns, retailers were sceptical that consumers would be prepared to buy expensive diamonds online. But strong take-up for internet offerings has helped diamond sales recover while modernizing some businesses.
“It has forced our industry to go to a place that we have been slow to get to,” said David Kellie, CEO of the Natural Diamond Council.
The diamond market has fewer gauges of global demand than other, more widely traded commodities, presenting special challenges for analysts.
Google searches for “diamond ring” in the U.S., the country that accounts for around 50% of the world’s diamond consumption, can be a good proxy, said Kirill Chuyko, head of research and mining analyst at Russian brokerage BCS Global Markets. Searches for the term slumped in March but have since recovered to prior levels.
With central banks slashing interest rates to stimulate economies—and some taking rates into negative territory—diamonds are also getting a lift as wealthy individuals opt to put their money into real assets rather than pay a bank to hold it.
Amma Group, an investment house specializing in coloured diamonds, has seen an increase in the number of its clients who would rather take their earnings in the form of physical diamonds than in cash, to protect their wealth from negative interest rates, said Mahyar Makhzani, the group’s co-founder.
The group, which is set to launch its fifth fund later this year, pools investors’ money to buy some of the rarest coloured diamonds at auctions or from individuals and miners. It then holds or sells the diamonds for a higher price, using the profits to buy other stones that it predicts will go up in value. After a set period, the fund sells its diamonds and returns the money to investors.
“There are not more than 100 red diamonds in the world,” Mr Makhzani said. “It’s like owning a Picasso: You know he isn’t going to be making any more.”
Rising demand has also allowed diamond miners to raise prices on the rough diamonds they sell to manufacturers. Russia’s Alrosa raised prices in January while Anglo American’s De Beers is widely believed to have raised its prices for the first time since the pandemic, analysts said. The company doesn’t publicly disclose its prices.
Despite the incentive, the diamond-mining giants are likely to keep supply tightly controlled to maintain higher prices, Mr Chuyko said.
The strength of diamond demand was a rare tailwind for luxury brands during a difficult 2020. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, which last month completed its acquisition of jeweller Tiffany & Co., said recently that jewellery sales were a bright spot in the fourth quarter. Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, which houses jewellery brands Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Buccellati, said jewellery sales were its best performing sector in the final three months of 2020.
Some analysts are sceptical, however, that diamond prices can keep rising. As economies reopen and international travel resumes, the diamond industry will face renewed competition, particularly among the younger consumers it has been seeking to attract, Mr Chuyko said.
“A diamond ring will get you one or two pictures on Instagram,” he said. “But if you go on holiday to Spain you might get 10 pictures per day.”
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A sharp rebound in tourism in Europe’s sunbelt powers its economic rebound as core manufacturing centres struggle to recover
Europe’s economy has a north-south divide—and now it’s the poorer south that is powering the region’s return to growth.
Southern Europe, which for decades has had lower growth, productivity and wealth than the north, powered an upside-down recovery on the continent at the start of the year. Buoyant tourism revenue around the Mediterranean helped to offset sluggishness in Europe’s manufacturing heartlands.
The south’s transformation from laggard into growth engine reflects both a rapid rebound in visitor numbers from the collapse during the Covid-19 pandemic and a series of blows the continent’s large manufacturing sector has suffered, from surging energy prices to trade conflicts.
Now growth in the south is more than offsetting the north’s manufacturing malaise: As a whole, the eurozone economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.3% in the first quarter, ending nearly 18 months of economic stagnation in a sign that the currency area is recovering from the damage done by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It was the eurozone’s strongest performance since the third quarter of 2022, and approached the U.S. economy’s 1.6% first-quarter growth rate, which was a slowdown from a racy pace of 3.4% at the end of last year.
In the 2010s, Germany helped to drag the continent out of its debt crisis thanks to strong exports of cars and capital goods. Between 2021 and 2023, Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal contributed between a quarter and half of the European Union’s annual growth, according to a report last year by French credit insurer Coface —a trend now confirmed and amplified in the latest data.
In the first quarter, Spain was the fastest-growing of the big eurozone economies. It and Portugal recorded growth of 0.7% in the three months through the end of March from the previous quarter, while Italy’s economy grew by 0.3%. France and Germany both grew by 0.2%, the latter rebounding from a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter contraction at the end of last year.
This means Germany’s economy has grown by 0.3% in total since the end of 2019, compared with 8.7% for the U.S., 4.6% for Italy and 2.2% for France, according to UniCredit data.
In Spain, strong growth “seems to have been entirely due to strong tourism numbers,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, an economist with Capital Economics. Tourism accounts for around 10% of the economies of Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal.
The euro rose by about a quarter-cent against the dollar, to $1.0725, after the latest growth and inflation data were published.
The recovery comes as the European Central Bank signals it is preparing to reduce interest rates in June after a historic run of increases since mid-2022 that took it the key rate to 4%. Inflation in the eurozone remained at 2.4% in April, while underlying inflation cooled slightly, from 2.9% to 2.7%, according to separate data published Tuesday.
“The ECB hawks will point to the strong GDP number as [an] argument that ECB can take its rates lower gradually,” said Kamil Kovar, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.
The eurozone economy has flatlined since late 2022 as Russia’s attack on its neighbor sent food and energy prices soaring in Europe and sapped business and household confidence. Gross domestic product fell in both the third and fourth quarters of last year, meeting a definition of recession widely used in Europe, but not in the U.S.
Southern Europe is one of only a handful of regions where international tourist arrivals returned to pre pandemic levels last year, according to United Nations data. Tourism revenue across the EU was one-quarter higher in the three months through the end of last June than in the same period in 2019, according to Coface data.
The recovery in international tourism was “notably driven by the arrival of many Americans who…were able to take advantage of favorable exchange rates,” Coface analysts wrote. “On the other hand, the end of the zero-Covid policy in China has initiated a gradual return of Chinese tourists, although remaining below 2019 levels.”
In Portugal, the number of foreign tourists hit a record of more than 18 million last year, up 11% compared with the prepandemic year of 2019, official data showed in January. American tourists in particular have returned to Europe in force.
Tourist numbers in Asia Pacific and the Americas continued to lag 2019 levels by 35% and 10% last year, respectively, the data show.
It is unclear how much further the tourism boom can run, but economists expect the region’s economic recovery to strengthen later this year as cooling inflation boosts household spending power and lower energy costs aid factory output.
Recent surveys point to an improved outlook for growth. Consumer confidence has risen to its highest level in two years, and a leading business-sentiment index has shown steady improvement from the start of 2024.
“We think that the combination of a robust labor market, comparatively strong wage hikes and lower inflation compared with last year will finally lead to a moderate recovery in consumer spending in the next few quarters,” said Andreas Rees , an economist with UniCredit in Frankfurt.
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This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan