House Prices Under Labor

Economists are predicting the national property market will continue to soften despite Labor Government initiatives aimed at stimulation and a targeted ease of entry.

Labor’s recently announced ‘Help to Buy’ scheme – a new program targeting first home buyers, single parents and low-income earners in a bid to get them into the market sooner – was a key announcement from the incoming Albanese government and aligned to a confirmed continuation of the Coalition’s ‘Home Guarantee Scheme.’

“With affordability worsening due to the first interest rate rise in 11 years, the government incentives and offsets will aid housing in the short term,” says Dr Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market.

“Of course, interest rates will play a large role in how the market behaves, and while they are certainly on the way up, how far up they go is still up in the air.”

Others point to future pain – with predictions of substantial drops in property prices.

AMP claims Australians should expect a 10% – 15% drop in house prices across the next 18 months.

By comparison, Westpac remains firm with an earlier forecast of a national price fall of 2% by the end of 2022 and a further 8% in 2023. The CBA, meanwhile, predicts national prices to flatline by the end of the year, also with an 8% drop in 2023.

Dr Wilson remains sceptical of such dramatic reductions.

“The historical data doesn’t suggest that rising interest rates impact the market at that level,” he says. “There’s no doubt that over the past six months there’s been flat, or negative price growth. But the housing market is still undersupplied and with building costs rising and a lack of building in the pipeline, along with migration set to return at full capacity soon, there will still be more people than houses.

“One only has to look at the rental market, especially in major cities like Sydney and Melbourne to see that there is still a high demand for housing.”

Not discounting the effect of interest rates on the economy, Dr Wilson explains states the key to the national housing market lies with long-term inflation and wage-growth.

“For the new government, and the RBA, the problem lies in wages, and making sure that it keeps pace with inflation. With inflation going up, housing becomes less affordable, and that will have a greater impact on prices than interest rates.

“But at the end of the day, prices will stay fairly flat, if not a little bit under the line, and will be for some time.”

Climate change is already affecting home values due to the impact of more severe weather events and rising home insurance premiums, and the cost of building is likely to rise as regulatory changes designed to enhance climate resilience alter building codes and zoning laws, according to a new report.

The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council describes climate change as an emerging trend that is raising the cost and complexity of supplying more housing. In its newly released State of the Housing System report, the council discusses how climate change is reducing the value of some homes when major weather events cause flooding or other natural disasters.

“The price differential between flood-affected and non-flood affected homes has been estimated to be up to 35 percent a year after a flooding event,” the report says. “Furthermore, the RBA estimates around 7.5 percent of properties are in areas that could experience price falls of at least 5 percent due to climate change by 2050.”

More than one million households are struggling to afford home insurance, and rates of non-insurance are increasing due to the cost. For example, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission estimated that 40 percent of homes in Northern Western Australia were uninsured in 2020.

“Climate change is causing home insurance premiums to rise across Australia, adding to already elevated housing costs. Homeowners in areas considered at–risk of natural disasters are expected to see insurance premiums rise further or have difficulty obtaining insurance due to heightened risks.”

More frequent and severe weather events such as cyclones and bushfires, as well as coastal erosion and flooding from rising sea levels, present risks to housing safety. More than 3,000 homes were lost in the 2019-20 bushfire season, causing $2.3 billion in insurance losses. The report says the predicted direct cost of natural disasters to the economy and housing will be $35.2 billion per year by 2050.

Climate change and net-zero targets could raise the cost of building new homes, the report says. “Regulatory changes to enhance climate resilience will alter building codes and zoning regulations.

Developers facing higher compliance costs may have difficulties meeting updated standards, potentially delaying or reducing housing availability.”

However, the report says the increased cost of building a home with climate-resistant materials and eco-friendly features is more than offset by lower energy costs over a property’s lifetime. The current minimum energy efficiency requirements within the National Construction Code are estimated to deliver a household–level benefit-to-cost ratio of 1.37, according to the report.

House Prices Under Labor

Predicted market falls are coming – though some experts claim things have been over-egged.

The insurance premium gap between flood affected and non-flood affected homes is significant