Australian residential property market is on the up in capital cities
The local landscape is still hard to predict as interest rate rises loom
The local landscape is still hard to predict as interest rate rises loom
The property downturn in Australia may have turned a corner, information from data analytics company Neoval suggests, with capital city prices increasing by 1.9 percent since December.
Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said while it’s unlikely increases will happen at the same pace that they did during the pandemic, the market appears to have stabilised, with Sydney leading the way. Neoval data showed Sydney prices have increased 2.7 percent, followed by Canberra and Melbourne, which both saw a 2.0 percent rise. Hobart and Brisbane prices went up by 1.8 percent, while Adelaide (1.4 percent), Perth (1.3 percent) and Darwin (1.1 percent) rounded out the capitals.
Ms Conisbee noted that the increases reflected different circumstances in each capital, making it harder to predict price movements going forward. While a resources boom in Perth and less sensitivity to interest rate rises in areas like Darwin may have contributed to higher prices, flooding in Brisbane last year will continue to put pressure on accessibility to trades in that city as homeowners try to rebuild.
The impact of further interest rate rises and fixed rate home loans soon ending for a substantial number of borrowers across the country was also yet to be felt. The RBA is scheduled to meet tomorrow, with most experts predicting a further rate rise.
“If house prices do now show a continual increase from this point forward it highlights the complexity of property markets,” Ms Conisbee said. “House prices are very sensitive to interest rates and there is almost complete consensus that these will continue to increase for a bit longer.
“We also have a lot of loans coming off fixed rates and this is likely to make some investment properties less financially attractive. It will also mean that holding a vacant property such as a holiday home, less desirable. It is likely more properties will come to market.”
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The Republican nominee says it would help bring down home prices, though these buyers account for a fraction of U.S. home sales
Former President Donald Trump said he would ban undocumented immigrants from obtaining home mortgages, a move he indicated would help ease home prices even though these buyers account for a tiny fraction of U.S. home sales.
Home loans to undocumented people living in the U.S. are legal but they aren’t especially common. Between 5,000 and 6,000 mortgages of this kind were issued last year, according to estimates from researchers at the Urban Institute in Washington.
Overall, lenders issued more than 3.4 million mortgages to all home purchasers in 2023, federal government data show.
Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, made his comments Thursday during a policy speech to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan.
Housing remains a top economic issue for voters during this presidential election. Rent and home prices grew at historic rates during the pandemic and mortgage rates climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades. A July Wall Street Journal poll showed that voters rank housing as their second-biggest inflation concern after groceries.
Both major candidates for the 2024 presidential election have made appeals to voters on housing during recent campaign stops, though the issue has so far featured more prominently in Vice President Kamala Harris ’s campaign.
Trump has blamed immigrants for many of the nation’s woes, including crime and unemployment. Now, he is pointing to immigrants as a cause of the nation’s housing-affordability crisis. Yet some affordable-housing advocates and real-estate professionals said Trump’s mortgage proposal would fail to bring relief to priced-out home buyers.
“It’s unfortunate that given the significant housing affordability crisis that is widely acknowledged across most partisan lines, we are arguing about a minuscule segment of the market,” said David Dworkin, president of the National Housing Conference, an affordable-housing advocacy group.
Gary Acosta, chief executive of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, a trade organization, said, “It’s just another effort to vilify immigrants and to continue to scapegoat them for any issues that we have here in the United States.”
A Trump campaign spokeswoman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. can obtain an obscure type of mortgage designed for taxpayers without Social Security numbers, most of whom are Hispanic. The passage of the USA Patriot Act of 2001 allowed banks to use identification numbers from the Internal Revenue Service as an alternative to Social Security, extending a number of financial services to people without legal status for the first time.
Mortgage loans for undocumented immigrants are typically higher interest and borrowers include legal residents who have undocumented spouses, Acosta said. Lenders include regional credit unions and community-development financial institutions.
In his speech, Trump said that “the flood” of undocumented immigrants is driving up housing costs. “That’s why my plan will ban mortgages for illegal aliens,” he said.
Trump didn’t elaborate on how he would enact a ban on such loans.
Though mortgages for undocumented people living in the U.S. are relatively rare, residential real-estate purchases by foreign nationals are big business , especially in expensive coastal cities such as New York and Los Angeles. These sales have declined in recent years, however.
Close to half of foreign purchases are made by people residing abroad, while the other half are made by recent immigrants or residents on nonimmigrant visas, according to an annual survey by the National Association of Realtors. Many affluent foreigners buy U.S. homes with cash instead of obtaining mortgage financing.
In his Thursday speech, which focused mostly on other economic matters such as energy and taxation, Trump proposed other measures to bring down housing costs, including cutting regulations for builders and allowing more building on federal land. Similar ideas appeared in the housing policy outline Harris released in August .
The former president has spoken on housing-related issues in speeches at other recent campaign stops, including in Michigan last month, where he touted his administration’s 2020 overturn of a policy that had encouraged cities to reduce racial segregation .
“I keep the suburbs safe,” Trump said. “I stopped low-income towers from rising right alongside of their house. And I’m keeping the illegal aliens away from the suburbs.”
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