As India Overtakes China in Population, Will Its Stock Market, Too?

Is India’s stock market a better long-term bet than China’s?

Some economists think so, now that India is on track to become the world’s most populous nation. Demography, they believe, is destiny.

While China’s population has long been the largest in the world, the two countries are now neck and neck, at roughly 1.4 billion people each, according to the United Nations. India will be No. 1 sometime this year, if it isn’t there already. And by the year 2100, India’s population is projected to be 1.5 billion, while China’s is projected to be 800 million.

A larger population doesn’t automatically translate into a stronger economy or a better-performing stock market, says Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research. The more important variable when projecting economic growth is the size of the working-age population. When it comes to the stock market’s long-term prospects, furthermore, it is the size of “the maturing age population that is important,” she says.

The MO ratio

The indicator that perhaps best captures the relative size of these two groups is the so-called MO ratio, says John Geanakoplos, an economics professor at Yale University. The numerator of this ratio—“M,” for middle-aged—is the number of those ages 40 to 49, while the denominator—“O,” for old—contains those from ages 60 to 69. Prof. Geanakoplos is the co-author of an academic paper, published in 2002, documenting that demographic variables such as the MO ratio historically have been significantly correlated with the stock market.

Prof. Geanakoplos says the correlation stems from the fact that the MO ratio is a good proxy for how many people in a country are saving and investing for retirement relative to how many are withdrawing money from the stock market to pay for their retirement. When the ratio is high, there are more savers and investors relative to spenders, which means that capital will be relatively plentiful and interest rates will be lower than they would otherwise be. That in turn means that the discounted value of companies’ future earnings and dividends will be higher. When the ratio is low, in contrast, interest rates will tend to be higher and the present value of future earnings and dividends will be lower.

Prof. Geanakoplos adds that the absolute level of the MO ratio is less important for the stock market’s prospects than its trend. That poses a special challenge to China’s stock market over the longer term, since the country’s MO ratio is projected to decline precipitously over the next several decades—from its current 1.32 to 0.73 in 2050, according to data from Ned Davis Research. This means there will be nearly a doubling in the number of retirees in China pulling money out of the economy and the stock market between now and 2050, relative to the number who are saving and investing.

“Insofar as demography is destiny” Prof. Geanakoplos says, “the long-term prospects for the Chinese stock market are relatively poor.”

India’s MO ratio, in contrast, is projected to decline at a more moderate pace over the next three decades compared with China’s, from its current 1.98 to 1.34. That means that, though demographic factors will be headwinds to both countries’ stock markets in coming decades, not tailwinds, those headwinds will be stronger in China than in India.

Other factors

Ms. Grindal says that while the impact of population trends shouldn’t be minimised, there are many other factors—both political and economic—that will influence the two countries’ economics and stock markets in coming decades.

To put into perspective the demographic headwinds that China and India will be facing, consider the U.S.’s MO ratio. According to Ned Davis Research data, the ratio is projected to rise from its current 1.01 to 1.31 by the end of the 2030s, before declining to 1.15 by 2050. This increase will come as a surprise to many, given recent media attention to Social Security’s financing shortfall. But, Ms. Grindal points out, the millennial generation “is about the same size, if not slightly larger, than the baby boom population,” and is about to enter the 40-49 age cohort. That’s largely what will cause the U.S. MO ratio to rise. Relative to China and India, in other words, the U.S. MO appears quite favourable.

Girard-Perregaux has revealed the first watches created through its partnership with Atlassian Williams F1 Team, bringing the British racing team’s colours to one of Switzerland’s most recognisable integrated-bracelet designs.

The collaboration comprises two 42mm steel watches: the time-and-date Laureato Williams Edition and the more technical Laureato Chronograph Williams Edition.

Both retain the familiar architecture of the Laureato, including its octagonal bezel, integrated bracelet and mix of polished and satin-finished surfaces. The influence of Williams is comparatively restrained, appearing through colour, discreet branding and details inspired by the team’s current Formula 1 car.

It is a welcome departure from the oversized logos and literal automotive references that can characterise motorsport watches.

The Williams FW48 inspires the dial

The centrepiece of both models is a blue Clous de Paris dial informed by the livery of the Williams FW48, the car being campaigned by the team during the 2026 Formula 1 season.

A small Williams “W” replaces the conventional marker at 12 o’clock, while the team emblem appears on the sapphire crystal caseback. Red accents echo the keyline used on the FW48 without overwhelming the established Laureato design.

The three-hand model offers the quieter interpretation. Baton-shaped, rhodium-plated hands and hour markers are filled with white-emitting luminescent material, while a date window sits at three o’clock.

The chronograph creates a more obvious connection with motorsport. Three subdials are framed by rhodium-plated rings, with red appearing on the small-seconds hand and the tip of the central chronograph seconds hand.

Both watches measure 42mm across and are water resistant to 100 metres. The standard Laureato has a case thickness of 10.68mm, while the additional mechanics of the chronograph increase its profile to 12.16mm.

Two in-house automatic movements

The Laureato Williams Edition is powered by Girard-Perregaux’s self-winding GP01800 calibre. The movement provides hours, minutes, central seconds and the date, with a minimum power reserve of 54 hours.

The Laureato Chronograph Williams Edition uses the automatic GP03300 calibre, which combines its chronograph functions with a date display and offers a minimum power reserve of 46 hours.

Both movements operate at 28,800 vibrations per hour and can be viewed through their sapphire crystal casebacks.

Their decoration provides a more traditional counterpoint to the Formula 1 association. Finishing techniques include Côtes de Genève, circular graining, bevelling, mirror polishing, satin finishing, engraving and snailing.

The result is less about reproducing the appearance of a racing car than identifying the common ground between two mechanical disciplines: precision, incremental development and the considerable work hidden beneath the finished product.

Parallel histories

The timing of the partnership draws attention to the remarkably similar ages of its two protagonists.

Girard-Perregaux introduced the original Laureato in 1975, establishing an integrated-bracelet sports watch with a distinctive octagonal bezel. Williams entered Formula 1 two years later in 1977.

Both have evolved continuously across the five decades since. The Laureato has moved through different sizes, materials and complications, while retaining its central design language. Williams, meanwhile, has remained one of Formula 1’s most historically significant teams.

That gives the collaboration greater credibility than a simple licensing exercise. Girard-Perregaux and Williams are not being connected solely through the familiar language of speed. Their stronger link is a shared dependence on engineering, testing and the accumulation of specialist knowledge.

The watches are described as the beginning of a longer collaboration, suggesting further Williams editions may follow.

Girard-Perregaux’s international website lists the Laureato Williams Edition at US$16,200 and the Laureato Chronograph Williams Edition at US$20,900. Australian pricing has not been announced.

Specifications

Girard-Perregaux Laureato Williams Edition 42mm

Reference: 81010-11-3680-1GM
Case: Steel
Diameter: 42mm
Thickness: 10.68mm
Crystal: Anti-reflective sapphire crystal
Dial: Blue Clous de Paris pattern
Movement: Automatic GP01800
Functions: Hours, minutes, central seconds and date
Power reserve: Minimum 54 hours
Water resistance: 100 metres
Bracelet: Integrated steel bracelet with triple-folding clasp
International price: US$16,200

Girard-Perregaux Laureato Chronograph Williams Edition 42mm

Reference: 81020-11-3681-1GM
Case: 904L steel
Diameter: 42mm
Thickness: 12.16mm
Crystal: Anti-reflective sapphire crystal
Dial: Blue Clous de Paris pattern with three chronograph counters
Movement: Automatic GP03300
Functions: Chronograph, hours, minutes, small seconds and date
Power reserve: Minimum 46 hours
Water resistance: 100 metres
Bracelet: Integrated 904L steel bracelet with triple-folding clasp
International price: US$20,900