China’s Country Garden Buys Time to Repay Debt—but Not Long
The property giant has a second chance to make an interest payment this week
3 min
HONG KONG—China’s top surviving private developer bought more time to sort out its liquidity problems, giving investors hope that it will cobble together enough cash to avoid defaulting on its U.S. dollar bonds this week.
Country Garden Holdings on Friday said it got approval from investors in mainland China to extend the maturity date of $537 million in domestic bonds by three years. The yuan-denominated debt was originally due Monday. An offshore unit of the 31-year-old property giant separately made an interest payment of around $600,000 on a bond denominated in Malaysian ringgit on Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The debt extension and bond payment created optimism that Country Garden can address a debt load that includes a range of foreign currency bonds—and a make-or-break interest payment this week.
The developer’s Hong Kong-listed shares jumped 15% on Monday, closing at their highest level in about three weeks. Other Chinese property stocks also gained, while the broader Hang Seng Index rose 2.5%.
Country Garden’s bond prices also edged higher, although most of its dollar bonds remained below 10 cents on the dollar, levels that indicate a high probability of default.
Chinese authorities have taken more steps in recent days to shore up the country’s beleaguered housing market, where sales have declined for most of the last two years. Last Thursday, the People’s Bank of China lowered minimum down payments on first and second home purchases and told banks they can lower the rates on existing mortgages. Regulators also recently expanded the definition of a first-time home buyer, a category that comes with lower mortgage rates and smaller down payments.
The rule changes helped to draw more people to real estate showrooms over the weekend. Demand for new homes in Shanghai increased noticeably after the new measures were implemented, according to Chen Julan, a senior analyst with China Index Academy. In Beijing, some developers withdrew discounts and adjusted their prices slightly higher, the research firm said.
The new rules could give a temporary boost to home sales in about a dozen major cities, said Song Hongwei, a research director of Tongce Research Institute, which tracks and analyses China’s real-estate market. He said lower-tier, poorer cities may not reap similar benefits and predicted that the overall housing market will eventually weaken again.
Country Garden’s recent cash crunch has largely been a result of slumping home sales in many parts of China. The company is one of the biggest surviving privately run developers and has a large presence in the country’s poorer regions. In August, it sold homes valued at a total of around $1.1 billion, almost three-quarters lower than a year earlier.
The company missed $22.5 million in coupon payments on bonds with a total face value of $1 billion in early August, and has a 30-day grace period to come up with the money. That grace period expires this week.
Even if it does pay the interest on its dollar bonds this week, it has many more coupon payments due in the coming months. Investors are skeptical that it can avoid default—unless its sales start growing again. Country Garden’s most recent financial report said that as of June 30, it had the equivalent of $15 billion in bonds, bank debt and other borrowings due within a year.
The company lost more than $7 billion in the first half of 2023, its worst financial performance since it went public in 2007, after its contracted sales for the period shrank 30%. Country Garden told investors it was “deeply remorseful” but said it was committed to turning things around.
China’s economy has struggled through much of this year, with falling exports, weak manufacturing and a slowdown in consumer spending all pointing to problems broader than a property slowdown. But cracks in the property sector, which was once seen as a major source of wealth creation in China, are exacerbating the broader economic malaise.
Chinese property developers’ falling property margins and weak sales will weigh on earnings until the end of next year, according to analysts at S&P Global Ratings. Not all developers will feel the same degree of pain. Those with links to the government or with good access to financing are better positioned to endure the fall in margins, the S&P analysts said in a note on Monday.
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2 min
Australia’s retail property sector entered 2026 as the strongest performing commercial asset class, but rising geopolitical risks and cost pressures are beginning to test its resilience, according to new research from Knight Frank.
The latest Australian Retail Review shows the sector rode a wave of consumer spending and constrained supply through 2025, delivering total returns of 9.2 per cent and driving transaction volumes up 43 per cent year-on-year to $14.4 billion.
That momentum carried into early 2026, with around $3.6 billion in deals recorded in the first quarter alone.
“Retail clearly emerged as the standout commercial property performer in 2025,” said Knight Frank Senior Economist, Research & Consulting Alistair Read.
“Improving household spending, limited new supply and stronger leasing fundamentals combined to drive better income growth and renewed investor confidence in the sector.”
Spending rebound drives retail strength
A lift in household spending has been central to the sector’s performance. Consumer spending rose 4.6 per cent year-on-year to February 2026, supported by easing inflation and improving real incomes.
That shift flowed directly into retailer performance, with average EBIT margins across major retailers rising to 8.9 per cent in the first half of 2026, their strongest level in several years.
“Stronger consumer spending was critical in restoring momentum to the retail sector,” Mr Read said.
“Retailers have generally been better able to absorb costs, rebuild margins and support sustainable rental outcomes, particularly in higher-quality centres.”
Improved trading conditions also pushed leasing spreads up 4.2 per cent in 2025, reinforcing income growth and supporting capital values.
Geopolitical tensions begin to bite
But the outlook has become more complicated. The report warns that escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on fuel prices, supply chains and interest rates could weigh heavily on consumer spending.
“Higher fuel prices, flow-on cost pressures across supply chains, and recent interest rate increases are collectively squeezing household budgets, and early consumer sentiment data suggests confidence is already softening,” Mr Read said.
“While household balance sheets remain generally resilient, heightened uncertainty over future costs is likely to weigh on spending — particularly in discretionary categories — in the months ahead.”
The impact is already being felt in investment activity. While the year began strongly, transaction volumes slowed in March as investors paused amid the uncertainty.
“Early indicators suggest elevated uncertainty has already begun to affect the market. While retail investment enjoyed its strongest start to a year in a decade, with nearly $3 billion transacted by the end of February, activity stalled in March, as investors took a pause amid elevated uncertainty,” Mr Read said.
Solid foundations support medium-term outlook
Despite the near-term headwinds, Knight Frank maintains that the sector’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. Limited new supply, high construction costs and population growth are expected to continue supporting rental growth over the medium term.
“Retail has entered this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” Mr Read said.
“Supply-side constraints, population growth and improving income fundamentals remain powerful structural supports for the sector.”
The report highlights several trends shaping the year ahead, including steady yields as interest rates rise, mounting pressure on tenant margins, continued outperformance of prime centres, the growing need for logistics integration, and risks linked to underinvestment in capital expenditure.
For now, retail remains a sector with momentum, but one increasingly at the mercy of forces far beyond the shopping centre.
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