China Unleashes Crackdown on ‘Pig Butchering.’ (It Isn’t What You Think.)

It’s called “pig butchering.”

Armies of scammers operating from lawless corners of Southeast Asia—often controlled by Chinese crime bosses—connect with people all over the world through online messages. They foster elaborate, sometimes romantic, relationships, and then coax their targets into making bogus investments. Over time, they make it appear that the investments are growing to get victims to send more money. Then, they disappear.

In recent months, China has unleashed its most aggressive effort to crack down on the proliferation of the scam mills, reaching beyond its territory and netting thousands of people in mass arrests. Its main target is a notorious stretch of its border with Myanmar controlled by narcotics traffickers and warlords.

For decades, frontier fiefdoms such as those in Myanmar have been havens for gambling and trafficking of everything from drugs to wildlife to people. Now, they are dens for pig-butchering operations.

The scammers operate out of secretive, dystopian compounds, many of which are run by Chinese fugitives who fled their country to places where it was easier to flout the law. They cheat Chinese citizens out of billions of dollars each year, as well as victims across the globe. The U.S. Treasury Department in September warned Americans about the scams.

In addition to remote hillside towns in Myanmar, these heavily guarded enclaves are also found in gambling hubs such as Cambodia’s Sihanoukville and Poipet. Cambodian authorities have carried out sporadic raids with China’s help, but the problem has persisted.

For Beijing, it is a significant source of embarrassment that Chinese criminals are at the centre of scams ensnaring people the world over, said Jason Tower, Myanmar country director for the United States Institute of Peace, an independent research organisation founded by the U.S. Congress that specialises in conflict mitigation.

China is “quite sensitive to the narratives that could potentially emerge,” he said. “These are largely Chinese crime groups which China, for years, did very little to check.”

The operations flourished during the Covid-19 pandemic when border trade stopped and internet use surged. They have also fuelled a human-trafficking crisis.

Many of the scammers entrapping people are themselves victims of human trafficking, lured abroad by fake job ads and held captive by withholding pay and passports. The United Nations human-rights office says more than 120,000 people may be forced to work as scammers in Myanmar, with another 100,000 in Cambodia.

One Malaysian trafficking victim told The Wall Street Journal that he was trained to spend weeks or months “fattening” his victims by gaining their trust before “butchering” them. His story was similar to those told by others lured into working in the scam mills. After responding to an ad on a job-recruitment website, he said he accepted an offer for a customer-service role in Cambodia. Once there, he was driven to a prison-like complex in Sihanoukville and forced to work as a scammer under threats of violence.

He said he had a handler who trained him, supplying him with a smartphone preloaded with fake social-media accounts, a “victim list” containing contact information of potential targets and various scripts designed to break the ice and build their trust. After several weeks, he said he convinced a driver who brought people and supplies to the compound to help him escape.

Regional migration researchers have documented trafficking from dozens of countries. Many victims come from Southeast Asia but some from as far as Brazil and Kenya.

“China is starting to signal that enough is enough,” said Inshik Sim, a Bangkok-based lead analyst for the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime’s regional operations.

In August, China launched a “special joint operation” with three nearby countries and increased pressure on armed groups that oversee remote parts of Myanmar, convincing them to hunt down, round up and repatriate almost 5,000 Chinese nationals suspected of illicit activity.

Chinese authorities have zeroed in on several border areas that are part of Myanmar but are fully controlled by armed groups. These places have often drawn large investments from Chinese nationals—both legal and illicit. Many Chinese people, including notorious fugitives, live in these enclaves, where the Mandarin language and Chinese currency are commonplace.

The Wa Self-Administered Division, located along China’s southwestern border, is of particular interest to China, in part because Beijing has so much leverage over it. The area is home to the ethnic minority Wa people, who claim the territory as their ancestral home. China has been the group’s main benefactor for decades; historians say they helped the Chinese Communist Party flush out enemies who fled across the border in the 1950s and ’60s. The area later became a major economic gateway to resource-rich Myanmar.

Independent researchers say its de facto leadership, the United Wa State Army, commands a force of more than 20,000 people armed with modern Chinese equipment such as portable surface-to-air missiles and armoured vehicles.

The area has been a major source of opium for almost two centuries, and in recent decades has become a leading producer of synthetic drugs such as methamphetamine. The U.S. Treasury blacklisted the UWSA in 2003 under the Kingpin Act, and has sanctioned dozens of people and businesses linked to the group, calling it “the largest and most powerful drug trafficking organisation in Southeast Asia.”

The UWSA and other criminal networks have increasingly turned to scamming in addition to the drug trade.

According to a 2022 report in Chinese state media, authorities blocked 2.1 million fraudulent websites and some $51.6 billion in suspicious transactions over the previous year. Beijing has warned citizens to look out for dubious rebate offers, investment schemes and unsolicited contact from anyone claiming to represent a company or law enforcement.

The first sign of a serious cleanup came in early September, when China worked with the UWSA to orchestrate two days of raids that ended with more than 1,000 suspects being marched across the border into Chinese custody. Then China upped the ante, taking aim at the group’s leadership.

On Oct. 12, China’s Ministry of Public Security said arrest warrants had been issued for two senior Wa officials accused of leading scam networks: the state’s construction minister Chen Yanban and a mayor named Xiao Yankui. Four days later, the UWSA said both had been stripped of their roles. Their whereabouts is unknown.

The same day, Chinese authorities said they had transferred 2,349 “telecommunication fraud” suspects from Myanmar two days prior—the single largest such handover. China says 4,666 suspects have been repatriated from Myanmar since the crackdown began earlier this year.

“This is by any measure a major operation, which speaks to the impact on China and Chinese citizens, and the seriousness with which Beijing is approaching this,” said Richard Horsey, senior adviser on Myanmar for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank specializing in conflict prevention.

While China may be turning up the heat on cybercriminals along its border, experts say scamming is so lucrative that the ringleaders are likely to simply look for more fertile ground—areas in weak states where law enforcement is lax.

“These groups are not going to go away easily,” said Tower, of the U.S. Institute of Peace. “They’re sitting on a massive source of capital and there are many fragile places in the world that they’ll be able to exploit.”

Reporting season has once again reminded investors that a strong profit does not guarantee a rising share price, and a large loss does not always trigger a sell-off. What matters most is how each result compares with expectations and, increasingly, what management says about the year ahead. During the August 2026 season, companies offering credible turnarounds or unexpectedly strong guidance were rewarded handsomely, while those flagging weaker margins, slowing demand or greater uncertainty were punished.

The following ranking draws on Morningstar’s review of 164 ASX-listed companies and measures each company’s share-price movement on the day it reported. This captures the market’s immediate response to the earnings announcement, before subsequent economic developments, dividends and company-specific news cloud the picture. Here are the five biggest winners, and the five hardest-hit losers, of the season so far.

The five winners

1. Bapcor (ASX:BAP): +41.0%

Bapcor delivered reporting season’s largest relief rally after presenting early evidence that its troubled automotive-parts business was stabilising. Although underlying revenue fell 1.8% to $1.92 billion and underlying NPAT collapsed 85% to $10.8 million, underlying EBITDA of $152.5 million exceeded guidance.

More importantly, working-capital initiatives released $68.5 million in the second half, lifting cash conversion to 109.4% and reducing net debt by 63% to $135 million. The statutory loss was $431.6 million, largely because of non-cash impairments. Investors focused on improving operational momentum, stronger liquidity and management’s expectation of modest FY27 revenue growth.

2. Zip Co (ASX:ZIP): +18.2%

Zip comfortably surpassed its FY26 targets, sending the buy-now-pay-later provider’s shares sharply higher. Transaction volume rose 23% to $16.7 billion, while cash earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 58% to a record $268.9 million. Statutory profit climbed 46% to $116.4 million, and the cash operating margin expanded by 4.2 percentage points to 20%.

The strongest signal was guidance for FY27 cash earnings of $340 million—around 26% growth and above analysts’ forecasts. US transaction volume increased 42.5% and now represents three-quarters of group volume, offsetting weaker customer activity in Australia.

3. CSL (ASX:CSL): +17.3%

CSL’s result was hardly spectacular in isolation, but it cleared a market bar that had fallen dramatically following earlier downgrades and restructuring announcements. Underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down 2% in constant-currency terms, while operating cash flow reached US$3.51 billion.

CSL maintained its full-year dividend at US$2.92 per share and completed a A$1 billion buyback. The real catalyst was FY27 guidance for approximately 5% underlying profit growth, compared with market expectations closer to 2%. After an extended period of earnings disappointments, investors interpreted the outlook as evidence that CSL’s core plasma business was approaching a sustainable recovery.

4. Judo Capital (ASX:JDO): +16.9%

Judo Capital demonstrated strong operating leverage as its specialist business-lending franchise expanded. Full-year profit before tax rose 34% to $168.1 million, while pre-provision profit increased 42%. Gross loans and advances grew 18% to $14.7 billion, reaching the top of the bank’s guidance range and comfortably exceeding broader system growth.

Deposits increased 24% to $12.2 billion, return on equity improved by 1.1 percentage points to 6.4%, and earnings per share rose 29% to 9.9 cents. Reaffirmation of the FY27 outlook gave investors confidence that loan growth could continue without sacrificing margins or credit quality.

5. Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL): +15.8%

The owner of Supercheap Auto, rebel, BCF and Macpac reported record sales of $4.2 billion, up 3.2%, despite cautious discretionary spending. Profitability went backwards: normalised profit before tax fell 7% to $306 million and normalised NPAT declined 2.8% to $226 million as transformation spending weighed on margins. Nevertheless, the result exceeded subdued expectations, online sales grew 5.3% and membership across the group’s loyalty programs reached 13.1 million. Investors were also encouraged by positive early FY27 trading, stable gross margins and continued market-share gains. A fully franked 33-cent final dividend added to the appeal.

The five losers

1. Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN): –21.2%

Hansen’s historic result met expectations, but investors recoiled from its outlook. The utility and communications software provider achieved an underlying EBITDA margin of 31%, exceeding its 30% target, while generating strong cash flow. However, management designated FY27 an “investment and transition year”, signalling a roughly five-percentage-point margin contraction as spending on products, sales capabilities and organisational changes increased.

Revenue had already been broadly flat, leaving investors concerned that the investment program would depress earnings before new growth appeared. Leadership changes, including the chief executive’s departure, added uncertainty. Management expects revenue growth and margins above 30% to return in FY28, but the market was unwilling to wait.

2. Life360 (ASX:360): –19.4%

Life360’s headline growth was impressive: quarterly revenue rose 38% to US$159 million, subscription revenue increased 31%, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 53% to US$31.1 million. Monthly active users reached 102.4 million and paying circles grew 27% to 3.2 million. The sell-off reflected expectations rather than a collapsing business.

Net income fell 18%, the net margin contracted from 6% to 3%, hardware shipments dropped 18%, and full-year EBITDA guidance was merely maintained. After a strong valuation run, investors wanted a larger upgrade and clearer evidence that heavy investment in advertising, international expansion and artificial intelligence would generate additional earnings.

3. PEXA Group (ASX:PXA): –17.0%

PEXA reported a 7% increase in continuing-operations revenue and 12% EBITDA growth to $152 million, accompanied by a two-percentage-point margin expansion. Free cash flow increased 39%, suggesting the core Australian electronic-conveyancing platform remained highly profitable. Investors instead concentrated on management’s warning that property-transfer volumes could decline, alongside regulatory uncertainty surrounding the fees PEXA can charge.

The company is also continuing to invest heavily in its loss-making international expansion. Morningstar considered the market reaction excessive, arguing that structural transfer-volume assumptions had not materially changed, but the combination of softer near-term activity and regulatory risk overwhelmed the respectable headline numbers.

4. SEEK (ASX:SEK): –14.3%

SEEK produced solid FY26 figures, including 10% revenue growth to $1.20 billion, a 15% rise in EBITDA and 28% growth in adjusted earnings per share. It also lifted its fully franked annual dividend by 13% to a record 52 cents. Those achievements were overshadowed by falling paid job-ad volumes and cautious FY27 assumptions.

The statutory accounts included a $201 million loss from the SEEK Growth Fund and $377 million of significant items, making the headline result considerably less attractive. Investors were particularly concerned that economic weakness could limit volumes while the company continued investing in platform integration and artificial-intelligence products.

5. JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH): –12.3%

JB Hi-Fi’s full-year result was broadly respectable, with group sales rising 5% to $11.1 billion and underlying earnings per share increasing 6% to $4.48. The damage came from its current-trading update. Australian sales were almost flat during the June quarter and deteriorated further in July, while earnings in the core Australian electronics business fell 3.6%.

Housing-related categories were particularly weak as higher living costs and interest rates constrained household budgets. With JB Hi-Fi entering the season on a demanding valuation, an in-line historic result was not sufficient: the loss of sales momentum prompted investors to rapidly reduce their expectations for FY27.

Overall, the season showed that share prices react less to whether profits rose or fell than to the gap between results and expectations. Bapcor was rewarded for being less troubled than feared, while several fundamentally profitable companies were punished because their outlooks failed to justify elevated valuations.