Greener Homes, Living Alone And Ongoing Rate Pain
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Greener Homes, Living Alone And Ongoing Rate Pain

Ray White’s chief economist outlines her predictions for housing market trends in 2024

By Bronwyn Allen
Tue, Nov 28, 2023 10:14amGrey Clock 2 min

Ray White’s chief economist, Nerida Conisbee says property price growth will continue next year and mortgage holders will need to “survive until 2025” amid expectations of higher interest rates for longer.

Ms Conisbee said strong population growth and a housing supply shortage combatted the impact of rising interest rates in 2023, leading to unusually strong price growth during a rate hiking cycle. The latest CoreLogic data shows home values have increased by more than 10 percent in the year to date in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. Among the regional markets, price growth has been strongest in regional South Australia with 8.6 percent growth and regional Queensland at 6.9 percent growth.

“As interest rates head close to peak, it is expected that price growth will continue. At this point, housing supply remains extremely low and many people that would be new home buyers are being pushed into the established market,” Ms Conisbee said. “Big jumps in rents are pushing more first home buyers into the market and population growth is continuing to be strong.”

Ms Conisbee said interest rates will be higher for longer due to sticky inflation. “… we are unlikely to see a rate cut until late 2024 or early 2025. This means mortgage holders need to survive until 2025, paying far more on their home loans than they did two years ago.”

Buyers in coastal areas currently have a window of opportunity to take advantage of softer prices, Ms Conisbee said. “Look out for beach house bargains over summer but you need to move quick. In many beachside holiday destinations, we saw a sharp rise in properties for sale and a corresponding fall in prices. This was driven by many pandemic driven holiday home purchases coming back on to the market.”

3 key housing market trends for 2024

Here are three of Ms Conisbee’s predictions for the key housing market trends of 2024.

Luxury apartment market to soar

Ms Conisbee said the types of apartments being built have changed dramatically amid more people choosing to live in apartments longer-term and Australia’s ageing population downsizing. “Demand is increasing for much larger, higher quality, more expensive developments. This has resulted in the most expensive apartments in Australia seeing price increases more than double those of an average priced apartment. This year, fewer apartments being built, growing population and a desire to live in some of Australia’s most sought-after inner urban areas will lead to a boom in luxury apartment demand.”

Homes to become even greener

The rising costs of energy and the health impacts of heat are two new factors driving interest in green homes, Ms Conisbee said. “Having a greener home utilising solar and batteries makes it cheaper to run air conditioning, heaters and pool pumps. We are heading into a particularly hot summer and having homes that are difficult to cool down makes them far more dangerous for the elderly and very young.”

More people living alone

For some time now, long-term social changes such as delayed marriage and an ageing population have led to more people living alone. However, Ms Conisbee points out that the pandemic also showed that many people prefer to live alone for lifestyle reasons. “Shorter term, the pandemic has shown that given the chance, many people prefer to live alone with a record increase in single-person households during the time. This trend may influence housing preferences, with a potential rise in demand for smaller dwellings and properties catering to individuals rather than traditional family units.”



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The Australian cities where working from home is still out of favour

Companies are leasing premium office space to entice workers back, but employees in one major capital are holding out

By Bronwyn Allen
Fri, May 10, 2024 2 min

The post-COVID return to CBD offices continues across Australia, with the average office occupancy rate climbing to 76 percent of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2024, according to new CBRE figures. Workers are gradually responding to their employers’ requests to attend their offices more regularly to enable greater collaboration with workmates. The occupancy rate has risen from 70 percent in the December quarter and 67 percent 12 months ago.

Occupancy rates improved across all capital cities during the March quarter, with Perth and Adelaide maintaining the strongest rates of 93 percent and 88 percent respectively. CBRE analysis suggests shorter commuting times and less structured working-from-home arrangements in these cities have contributed to higher rates of return. Brisbane’s occupancy rate is 86 percent of pre-COVID levels, weighed down by a slower return within the public sector, which represents 35 percent of the city’s office space. This same trend is being seen in Canberra, where the occupancy rate is just 66 percent.

In Sydney, the occupancy rate has risen to 77 percent, largely due to major banks and professional services firms pushing for more staff to return to the office this year. There has been a significant increase in workers returning to offices in Melbourne, with the occupancy rate up from 57 percent last quarter to 62 percent now. However, this is still the lowest attendance rate in the capital cities.

Businesses are increasingly pushing workers to return to the office because they are concerned working from home over multiple years will have a negative long-term impact on company-wide productivity. Part of the problem is new employees not having regular access to senior staff so they can learn and work more effectively and productively. CBRE says lower levels of collaboration and interaction reduce innovation, which is a particular concern for technology firms. They were quick to embrace remote working during COVID, but are now seeing dampened creativity among staff.

Tuesday is the peak day for attendance at CBD offices and Friday is the lowest day. Two-thirds of organisations that have moved their corporate headquarters since COVID have chosen to upgrade to premium office buildings, according to CBRE’s research. Premium blocks typically feature retail, restaurants, and recreational amenities on the ground floor, and command a higher rent. Companies are deciding it’s worth the cost to entice workers backand keep them feeling happy and engaged.

Jenny Liu, Director of Workplace Consulting at CBRE, said a vibrant workplace experience is essential.

“A workplace experience isn’t just environment, cool furniture and tech anymore,” she said. “It’s the culture, ways of working, leadership, and how vibrancy is created.”

Some companies are using apps that inform staff who will be in the office tomorrow. CBRE Research Manager Thomas Biglands said:

“It’s important that you achieve a critical mass of visitation so that employees come in and feel as though the office is vibrant and full,” he said.

Some firms are linking salary and promotions to office attendance to reward those workers providing higher contributions to corporate culture and mentoring younger staff.

The rate of return to offices in Australia is much higher than in the United States, where occupancy rates have remained at about 50 percent over the past year. CBRE analysis suggests this may be due to better public transport, shorter commutes and lower inner-city crime rates in Australia.

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