Australians on the move as housing affordability worsens

Frustrated aspiring home buyers and renters fed up with high runaway prices in certain markets may resort to moving interstate in 2024, according to analysts. In the latest Housing Affordability Report released by ANZ and CoreLogic, analysts say housing affordability has worsened due to rising migration and interest rates on top of longer-term factors such as governments not building enough social and affordable housing to keep up with demand.

“There is no quick and easy supply response to rising rents and home values,” according to the report. “As a result, 2024 may see more internal migration of prospective first home buyers and renters to markets with relatively low price points.” ANZ and CoreLogic point to data tracking historical net internal migration trends against the current median value of dwellings. “Internal migration was higher across areas with relatively low median values at that time,” the data shows.

During the pandemic, internal migration patterns changed as more people left Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, and relocated to the regions. Being able to work from home enabled many families to move to lower-cost markets and attain a better lifestyle. Queensland – especially the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, along with regional NSW and Victoria — were key beneficiaries of this trend. In 2022, NSW lost 31,560 residents and Victoria lost 9,955 due to net internal migration, while Queensland gained 34,545 residents, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The ANZ/CoreLogic report also predicts that more Australians will choose to share a property to save money in today’s cost-of-living crisis. Multi-generational living among families is a rising trend among home owners, and in the rental market, there is surging demand for share houses to make the rent more affordable for individuals. This represents a reversal of pandemic trends, say the analysts.

“In addition to changing location preferences, there could also be some preference shifts around the number of people sharing a household in 2024. The pandemic period saw a notable drop in average household size from 2.55 people per household to 2.49 as of 2023. This may have reflected greater demand for space as more time was spent at home, a temporary rise in available rentals at the very start of the pandemic, and high levels of fiscal stimulus supporting incomes. However, this trend could reverse as more people take up share housing to alleviate housing costs.”

The interest rate hiking cycle is likely coming to an end, which will ease pressure on mortgage serviceability, but the analysts note that a steady or falling cash rate typically results in upward pressure on prices. “Additionally, the current drop-off in new dwelling approvals may hinder housing supply growth for some time. Ultimately, improved housing affordability in the long term is likely to depend on deliberate initiatives to increase housing supply, rather than relying on a temporary downswing in prices or cyclical reduction in interest rates.”

The report also finds that regional markets are not as affordable as they used to be following the pandemic boom. As of October, regional home values are 44 percent higher than at the start of COVID compared to capital city prices being 26 percent higher.

The report also notes a widening price gap between Sydney and Melbourne, with Melbourne the only capital city where affordability for buyers has improved over the past five years.

“More modest dwelling value increases in Melbourne, which has led to Melbourne being more affordable relative to Sydney over time, comes down to more supply of dwellings over the past 15 years,” the report states. “ABS building activity data shows there were around 850,000 dwelling completions across Victoria in the 15 years to June 2023, which is 21% higher than in NSW over the same period.”

Australia’s population growth hot spots are mostly affordable property markets on the outskirts of major cities and in regional areas, according to an analysis by PropTrack. But homes may not remain affordable for long, with most of these areas recording above-average price growth over the past five years.

Australia’s population grew by 2.5 percent to 26.8 million people over the 12 months ending 30 September, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This was an annual increase of 659,800 people, with migrants making up 83 percent of the increase.

REA economist Megan Lieu said home prices in Australia’s population growth hot spots are growing at an above-average pace due to strong buyer demand. However, median prices in the SA3 regions she analysed are still more affordable than their nearest capital cities or major regional cities.

Wyndham, on the western edge of Melbourne, recorded the strongest population growth over the past five years with almost 41,000 more people living there today compared to June 2018. In NSW, Blacktown–North in western Sydney had the highest growth with almost 36,000 new residents. In Queensland, Ormeau–Oxenford in the Gold Coast’s northern suburbs gained almost 28,000 new residents, with Ms Lieu noting it was a popular market with interstate and international migrants.

Ms Lieu said the worst housing affordability in three decades may be driving population growth in areas with lower median values.

“A potential factor contributing to this trend is that homes in a majority of these regions are generally priced lower than their broader greater capital city area (GCCSA),” Ms Lieu said. “This is evident when we look at the current median sale price of homes in these SA3s. Over 60 percent of them sold for less than the median in their respective city or regional area.”

Ms Lieu said other drivers of these areas’ strong population growth could be local councils zoning large swathes of land for home development.

“They tend to be in peripheries of cities where more new homes are being built relative to other areas. The increase in the supply of homes could be contributing to more competitive pricing.”

However, these competitive prices are attracting more demand than supply, leading to strong price growth. “All except four of the SA3 regions have experienced larger price growth in the past five years compared to their corresponding city or regional area,” Ms Lieu said.

The price growth differential is more than 20 percent in some regions, such as Rouse Hill-McGraths Hill in Sydney, Ormeau-Oxenford in Queensland and Fleurieu-Kangaroo Island in South Australia.

Median house prices have moved up dramatically in many of the individual suburbs within the SA3 population hot spots. For example, the median house price in the suburb of Ormeau on the Gold Coast in Queensland is $830,500, according to PropTrack data. It has risen 7.9 percent over the past 12 months and skyrocketed 68 percent over the past five years. The median house price in the suburb of Rouse Hill in north-west Sydney is $977,500, down 2.5 percent over the past year but up 30 percent over five years. The median price in the Melbourne outskirts suburb of Wyndham Vale is $585,000, up 2.5 percent over the past year and 26 percent over five years.

Another factor driving strong price growth may be the increasing lifestyle appeal of these particular areas over the past five years. For example, Ormeau is close to Westfield Coomera, which opened in 2018, and has benefitted from numerous M1 road upgrades between Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Rouse Hill has its own station on the Sydney Metro Northwest rail line, which began running in 2019.

Ms Lieu said it was likely that more Australians would seek cheaper homes in city outskirts areas and the regions as property values continue to grow amid a continued forecast housing undersupply.

“With supply unable to meet continued strong housing demand, home prices may experience further upward pressure,” Ms Lieu said.

Top 3 areas for highest population growth over 5 years

NSW

Blacktown–North, Sydney 36,233 (new residents since 2018)

Bringelly-Green Valley, Sydney 27,741

Rouse Hill-McGraths Hill, Sydney 21,821

VICTORIA

Wyndham, Melbourne 40,833

Melton-Bacchus Marsh, Melbourne 35,818

Casey-South, Melbourne 33,191

QUEENSLAND

Ormeau-Oxenford, Gold Coast 27,719

Brisbane Inner, Brisbane 16,465

Springfield-Redbank, Ipswich 15,326

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Playford, Adelaide 6,997

Charles Sturt, Adelaide 6,410

Fleurieu-Kangaroo Island, regional South Australia 5,504

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Swan, Perth 16,959

Wanneroo, Perth 14,885

Mandurah, regional Western Australia 11,156

TASMANIA

Hobart-North East, Hobart 2,723

Devonport, regional Tasmania 1,926

North East, Launceston-North East 1,728

Source: PropTrack, SA3 regions with highest population growth over 5 years

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