Green Investors Were Crushed. Now It’s Time to Make Money.

Invest according to your political views, and you’re unlikely to make money. Companies that appeal to left-wingers or to right-wingers might be good or bad investments, but the fact of being, on current politics, clean and union-friendly for the left or oily and gun-friendly for the right is neither here nor there. What matters is their ability to make money and how highly they are valued.

This has been rammed home for environmentally-minded investors in the past year, as a coordinated selloff in anything with green credentials crushed the idea of making money while doing good.

It turns out that the real world is tougher than advocates of ESG—environmental, social and governance—investing claimed. The lessons have been hard, but should remind investors in the sector of some of the basic facts of investing. The fall in prices has improved the outlook for the stocks.

This year has been almost universally bad for clean investments. The two worst performers still in the S&P 500 are solar companies Enphase Energy and SolarEdge Technologies, down 60% and 70%, respectively. Hydrogen stocks have fallen sharply, led by Plug Power, which warned it might not survive. Wind-farm developers have been doing so badly they have pulled out of some contracts, with Denmark’s Ørsted off 48% in dollar terms and Florida-based NextEra Energy off 29%.

Electric cars have disappointed too, hitting startups and suppliers and pushing the price of lithium ores, used to produce the battery metal, down by three-quarters or more, although market-leader Tesla’s stock has been an exception.

Just as there was a coordinated green selloff, there has been a coordinated partial rebound in the past month or so.

This provides the first lesson: debt. The clean-energy sector is dependent on vast amounts of borrowing, so high interest rates really hurt. Roman Boner, who runs a clean-energy fund at Dutch fund manager Robeco, points out that major projects are typically financed with 80% debt, so rises in financing costs have a big impact on competitiveness.

Investors who bought into green stocks probably didn’t think they were making a leveraged bet on Treasurys, but that is what they ended up with. It isn’t only about corporate financing costs, either. High borrowing costs hit consumer demand for rooftop solar and for electric cars, both of which are often leased, since leasing costs depend on the cost of debt.

At a very high level, this is about long-term thinking. Low rates encourage investors to think long term, because they make future profits almost as valuable as current profits, and encourage borrowing to try to secure those future profits.

High rates encourage short-term thinking, by making profits today far more valuable than future profits—why bet on the future when you can earn 5% from Treasury bills? Short-term we get fossil-fuel profits, while long-term we get either clean energy or global warming; recently investors have been encouraged by rising rates to think short term.

The second lesson: government. Ronald Reagan overstated it when he said: “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.’” But investors who rely on state subsidies to ensure profits leave themselves at the mercy of both fickle politicians and the bureaucrats Reagan was concerned about. This year’s selloff has been worsened by the bureaucrats and their failure to provide the details of many of the subsidies promised in last year’s badly named Inflation Reduction Act.

“We’re still hoping to get them by year end,” says Ed Lees, co-head of the environmental strategies group at BNP Paribas Asset Management. The next problem might be the politicians, at least if Donald Trump wins the presidency and torches the IRA. Lees thinks this will be hard, because so many IRA-subsidised projects are heading for Republican states. But Trump certainly has no sympathy for environmental causes.

The third lesson is the one most relevant to buying today: valuation. Buying stocks when they are trendy and wildly overpriced is a recipe for disaster. Perhaps the most extreme example of late is the L&G Hydrogen Economy ETF, launched in London at the height of clean-energy excitement in February 2021. It plummeted from day one, never regained its launch price, and is down 55% since then.

“We’ve seen a very harsh reality check,” said Sonja Laud, chief investment officer of L&G Investment Management.

The question is whether the hype has left. Laud worries that one year of high rates won’t have crushed all the excesses built up in 12 years of near-zero rates. But clearly valuations are much lower than they were, and she is hopeful there are opportunities to be found now.

“The huge green premium you had previously is no longer there,” says Velislava Dimitrova, who runs sustainable funds at Fidelity International. Clean-energy stocks are “much more interesting than they used to be—I don’t believe that renewables are dead.”

In the bond market, investors are no longer paying much if any “greenium,” or extra price for green bonds. In stocks, it is harder to judge: The S&P Global Clean Energy index trades at a discount to the global market on some measures, but not others, making it difficult to conclude that the sector as a whole is a wonderful bargain.

Still, it is good news for buyers that the hype has evaporated. Investors who care about profits more than purpose can finally consider clean-energy stocks again.

No matter whether you’re a first home buyer or a seasoned investor, entering the property market right now, in whatever capacity, is a tricky task thanks to high interest rates and a super competitive market across the board.

With Google searches like ‘how much deposit do I need to buy a house’ and ‘how to get a home loan’ currently trending, there’s one question potential buyers should be asking, as well: ‘what are the things to stop doing before applying for a home loan’.

Barbara Giamalis, a mortgage broker at Tiimely Home, has over 25 years of experience on the matter, and says there are certainly some factors to consider when applying for a home loan that can better your chances of success.

“There’s no right or wrong time to purchase a home; it all depends on every person’s financial situation, but you must ensure you’re comfortable paying back the loan based on your personal financial circumstances,” said Ms Giamalis.

“The number one question I’m asked is, ‘how much can I borrow?’, but there’s a huge difference between what people can borrow now in comparison to rates. By enacting some of these small tips below, it might just be the difference between getting approved or denied for a home loan.”

Below, Ms Giamalis lists five things you should consider stopping if you’re planning to apply for a home loan. And with predications of lower interest rates coming into play this year, there’s never been a better time to get on top of the home loan race.

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1. Consider cancelling your credit card

This is a simple one. Typically, if you’re looking to borrow more money for a higher loan, it’s wise to close any credit card accounts you have open. Contrary to popular opinion, you definitely don’t need a credit card to build your credit score to get a home loan.

“If you’ve got credit cards, try and pay them off and cancel them before applying for a loan because it gives you greater borrowing power,” said Ms Giamalis.

“You don’t need a good credit score through a credit card to get approved for a home loan as your credit rating is what it is. If you’re a first-time borrower and never had a loan, your rating won’t be great, it might be around 700, but it’s better than having 800 with two credit cards.”

Typically, a credit card rating is calculated from your credit report, which is essentially a history of your credit card actions. It’s calculated based off your line of credit (the amount you have borrowed), your credit application history, and whether you have paid your debts in time. Your score will be highlighted between zero to 1,200; the higher the score, the better your odds are of getting a loan. The lower your score, riskier you present to potential lenders.

2. Stop using ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ schemes

We’ve all been there. ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ services present as extremely attractive payment alternatives when shopping online. But therein lies the danger; such services rely on its customers not making repayments in time.

And if you’re considering applying for a home loan, it’s wise to avoid using such services all together.

“If an applicant opts to pay off purchases in increments, even interest-free payments, this could signal to some lenders that the applicant may not be financially stable,” said Ms Giamalis.

“Most lenders will look at the living expenses of an applicant. If an applicant is using ‘buy now, pay later’ services more than what they have in their savings, this could be a red flag and lenders could question whether they can afford a loan.”

Services like Afterpay also have the right to report any missed payments on your credit history, which could definitely have a negative impact to your credit score.

3. Don’t put off saving for future mortgage repayments

Before applying for a home loan, a good indication of whether you would be able to afford the monthly repayments on your mortgage is demonstrating the ability to save the amount. This, along with saving for your ten or 20 percent deposit, will put you in good stead for your home loan preparation, and will show lenders that you’re disciplined when it comes to finances.

“One of the best tips for young people, and one they can start doing now, is to start saving for their monthly mortgage payment before applying for a home loan as it shows dedication,” said Ms Giamalis.

Ms Giamalis adds that having a three-month saving history is a great way to prove this to potential lenders.

Here are some friendly financial tools to assist you along the way.

4. Stop gambling and making cash withdrawals

According to Gambling Statistics Australia, 6.8 million Australians participate in some form of gambling each year. This could include activities like buying a ticket in the lottery right through to using gambling apps and visiting casinos. This can present as an obvious red flag to lenders, who will take this into account when deciding to service a home loan application or not.

Another factor to consider is cash withdrawals. If you’re someone who is making regular ATM cash withdrawals per week or per month, this can be a problem as the potential lender can’t track where this money is going. Experts suggest it’s better to have purchases that are traceable.

“Large one-off purchases such as a couch, a new hot water service or a motor vehicle, won’t be taken into an applicant’s living expenses as it’s a one-off meaning the banks will look at that as a discretionary cost,” added Ms Giamalis.

5. Don’t hold onto student debt

One of the key considerations your mortgage broker or financial professional will consider in the home loan application process is paying out any debts you may have outstanding, such as your higher education debt.

It might seem obvious that paying off a HECS debt will strengthen your chances of obtaining a home loan, however, Ms Giamalis says many people often don’t factor in these debts.

“The Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) impacts your borrowing power. HELP debt is a liability that you need to declare in the home loan application process,” said Ms Giamalis.

“The impact of HECS on your ability to get a home loan may vary depending on your income level and the amount of your HECS debt. Seeking financial advice before deciding to pay off your debt is crucial.”

Many are not in the position to pay off their student loans immediately, so this point comes as an additional should you be in the position to do so. This also applies even in light of the Federal Government’s proposal to wipe a reported $3 billion in debt from three million Australians who have HECS debts through indexation changes, essentially capping indexation rate for loans. The proposal is designed to lend a hand in helping young tertiary educated Australians pay off their student loans.

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Green Investors Were Crushed. Now It’s Time to Make Money.

The lessons have been hard, and are a reminder of the basic facts of investing

If you’re looking to secure a home loan, you might want to consider these expert tips…