Canada Extends Foreign Home Buyer Ban

Canada’s government has extended through the end of 2026 a controversial ban on foreign home buyers that took effect last January after years of debate.

“For years, foreign money has been coming into Canada to buy up residential real estate, increasing housing affordability concerns in cities across the country, and particularly in major urban centres,” Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s deputy prime minister and minister of finance, said in a news release yesterday. “Foreign ownership has also fuelled worries about Canadians being priced out of housing markets in cities and towns across the country.”

The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act forbids non-citizens from buying residential property in most urban areas, though it includes a long list of exceptions. Property in many rural and “recreational” regions is exempt; most students, refugees, permanent residents, spouses of Canadian citizens, and some temporary workers in Canada may still buy homes.

While the government says the ban will help ease Canada’s severe housing crunch, critics in the real estate industry counter that the prohibition is misguided―and ineffective.

“The newly announced two-year extension is completely unnecessary, considering the fact there is no analysis, evidence or data from Statistics Canada, CMHC [Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation] or Finance Canada, to support the government’s intended impact on housing affordability in Canada,” said Janice Myers, CEO of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), in a statement Monday. “If the government decides to move forward with this baseless extension, CREA urges them to consider recommendations including exempting pre-construction financing, defining and exempting recreational property, including CUSMA [Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement] exemptions, and giving provinces input to tailor to their housing market requirements,” she added.

Don Kottick, the president and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, agreed.

“Canada’s housing market has been driven almost entirely by the housing needs and demands of locals, as well as by population gains due to in-migration of Canadians from other cities, and through immigration,” he told Mansion Global in an email. “The extension of the foreign buyers ban will continue to have little or no impact on housing affordability and housing prices. This policy has only confused and frustrated those from other countries with crucial skills, talent and capital that Canada has been striving to attract and retain.”

The ban has also chilled luxury home sales in key markets like Toronto, said Maureen O’Neill, manager of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada in Toronto. “People who want to sell houses for more than C$5 million [US$3.92 million] can no longer rely on the buyers they used to count on globally,” she said. “It’s another extra burden on selling a house.”

That burden may soon get even heavier; Toronto’s mayor last week endorsed a 10% tax on foreign home buyers in that city, Canada’s largest. The province of Ontario already imposes its own 25% “non-resident speculation tax” on foreign buyers.

Though Canadian data on non-resident buyers is limited, the CBC last year reported that in British Columbia―one of the nation’s hottest housing markets―only about 1.1% of transactions in 2021 involved a foreign buyer, a drop of 3% in 2017. At the time, Ontario’s government told the CBC it had seen “a downward trend” in foreigners buying property since it began taxing non-resident purchases in 2017.

Australia’s population growth hot spots are mostly affordable property markets on the outskirts of major cities and in regional areas, according to an analysis by PropTrack. But homes may not remain affordable for long, with most of these areas recording above-average price growth over the past five years.

Australia’s population grew by 2.5 percent to 26.8 million people over the 12 months ending 30 September, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This was an annual increase of 659,800 people, with migrants making up 83 percent of the increase.

REA economist Megan Lieu said home prices in Australia’s population growth hot spots are growing at an above-average pace due to strong buyer demand. However, median prices in the SA3 regions she analysed are still more affordable than their nearest capital cities or major regional cities.

Wyndham, on the western edge of Melbourne, recorded the strongest population growth over the past five years with almost 41,000 more people living there today compared to June 2018. In NSW, Blacktown–North in western Sydney had the highest growth with almost 36,000 new residents. In Queensland, Ormeau–Oxenford in the Gold Coast’s northern suburbs gained almost 28,000 new residents, with Ms Lieu noting it was a popular market with interstate and international migrants.

Ms Lieu said the worst housing affordability in three decades may be driving population growth in areas with lower median values.

“A potential factor contributing to this trend is that homes in a majority of these regions are generally priced lower than their broader greater capital city area (GCCSA),” Ms Lieu said. “This is evident when we look at the current median sale price of homes in these SA3s. Over 60 percent of them sold for less than the median in their respective city or regional area.”

Ms Lieu said other drivers of these areas’ strong population growth could be local councils zoning large swathes of land for home development.

“They tend to be in peripheries of cities where more new homes are being built relative to other areas. The increase in the supply of homes could be contributing to more competitive pricing.”

However, these competitive prices are attracting more demand than supply, leading to strong price growth. “All except four of the SA3 regions have experienced larger price growth in the past five years compared to their corresponding city or regional area,” Ms Lieu said.

The price growth differential is more than 20 percent in some regions, such as Rouse Hill-McGraths Hill in Sydney, Ormeau-Oxenford in Queensland and Fleurieu-Kangaroo Island in South Australia.

Median house prices have moved up dramatically in many of the individual suburbs within the SA3 population hot spots. For example, the median house price in the suburb of Ormeau on the Gold Coast in Queensland is $830,500, according to PropTrack data. It has risen 7.9 percent over the past 12 months and skyrocketed 68 percent over the past five years. The median house price in the suburb of Rouse Hill in north-west Sydney is $977,500, down 2.5 percent over the past year but up 30 percent over five years. The median price in the Melbourne outskirts suburb of Wyndham Vale is $585,000, up 2.5 percent over the past year and 26 percent over five years.

Another factor driving strong price growth may be the increasing lifestyle appeal of these particular areas over the past five years. For example, Ormeau is close to Westfield Coomera, which opened in 2018, and has benefitted from numerous M1 road upgrades between Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Rouse Hill has its own station on the Sydney Metro Northwest rail line, which began running in 2019.

Ms Lieu said it was likely that more Australians would seek cheaper homes in city outskirts areas and the regions as property values continue to grow amid a continued forecast housing undersupply.

“With supply unable to meet continued strong housing demand, home prices may experience further upward pressure,” Ms Lieu said.

Top 3 areas for highest population growth over 5 years

NSW

Blacktown–North, Sydney 36,233 (new residents since 2018)

Bringelly-Green Valley, Sydney 27,741

Rouse Hill-McGraths Hill, Sydney 21,821

VICTORIA

Wyndham, Melbourne 40,833

Melton-Bacchus Marsh, Melbourne 35,818

Casey-South, Melbourne 33,191

QUEENSLAND

Ormeau-Oxenford, Gold Coast 27,719

Brisbane Inner, Brisbane 16,465

Springfield-Redbank, Ipswich 15,326

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Playford, Adelaide 6,997

Charles Sturt, Adelaide 6,410

Fleurieu-Kangaroo Island, regional South Australia 5,504

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Swan, Perth 16,959

Wanneroo, Perth 14,885

Mandurah, regional Western Australia 11,156

TASMANIA

Hobart-North East, Hobart 2,723

Devonport, regional Tasmania 1,926

North East, Launceston-North East 1,728

Source: PropTrack, SA3 regions with highest population growth over 5 years

Canada Extends Foreign Home Buyer Ban

The law that forbids non-residents from acquiring homes in most areas has affected the luxury end of urban markets, experts say

While demand for affordable housing is attracting more Australians to fringe suburbs, some are seeing value in regional tourist hotspots