How an Ex-Teacher Turned a Tiny Pension Into a Giant-Killer
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How an Ex-Teacher Turned a Tiny Pension Into a Giant-Killer

A bold bet on rising rates lifted a small Massachusetts fund near the top of the performance rankings.

By MATT WIRZ
Mon, May 27, 2024 10:55amGrey Clock 5 min

Plymouth County is known for Pilgrims, cranberries—and a top-performing pension fund run by a 65-year-old former schoolteacher.

After a decade of mostly ho-hum performance, the $1.4 billion Plymouth County Retirement Association ranked in the top 10% of U.S. pensions over the past three years. Key to that success was an early—and prescient—bet that interest rates would rise. That buoyed the fund through big chunks of the past two years, when climbing rates hammered both stocks and bonds.

Now markets of all kinds have posted a six-month rally , stocks are hitting records and Plymouth risks falling behind again. But Peter Manning, the fund’s director of investments, is sticking to his guns. The hope that rates will fall soon is misplaced, he said. Another downturn could be coming for Wall Street.

And so, to Manning, the best way to enlarge the pension long term is by avoiding big losses, rather than chasing high returns.

“It ain’t about what you make. It’s about what you keep,” he said.

Beating the big guys

The fund, which manages savings for the county’s firefighters, bus drivers and custodians, delivered average annual net returns of 5.7% in the three years ending Dec. 31. That put it ahead of 92% of pensions nationally. The median U.S. public retirement fund returned 3.7% over the same period, according to Investment Metrics, a portfolio analysis provider.

Plymouth County surpassed bigger peers by slashing exposure to Treasurys and public stocks before they tanked in 2022. The fund then reinvested the money in infrastructure, private equity and inflation-protected debt.

While many other public plans have followed suit , the trades were also unusually quick for pension funds, which often change investments incrementally rather than in bold strokes.

“A lot of our clients made moves on the margin,” said Daniel Dynan, a managing principal at Meketa Investment Group, Plymouth County’s investment consultant. “The difference in Plymouth is the magnitude of the change.”

An unlikely trendsetter

With only 10,500 members, the fund is an unlikely trendsetter. U.S. public pensions guarantee retirement and benefit payments to 34 million members nationally, according to data from the Urban Institute, a nonprofit think tank. Plymouth County, which lies south of Boston, encompasses mostly middle-class suburbs, but also some wealthy enclaves and gritty urban areas. It is split between Democratic and Republican voters.

A decade ago, Plymouth County had only about half of the money it needed to make expected payments for its retirees. An accounting change in 2012 drastically widened shortfalls for most public pensions across the country.

At the same time, the board overseeing the fund, which had spent years relying solely on an outside consultant, was dissatisfied with its investment performance. The approach resembled the classic mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds popular with ordinary investors.

“We were doing what everyone else was doing, running a 60-40 portfolio and hoping for the best,” said Tom O’Brien, Plymouth County’s treasurer and chairman of the pension board.

From teacher to investor

The county hired Manning to advise the board on investment strategy in 2012. He had never managed a pension fund before.

“I was a schoolteacher [in the 1980s] in a suburb of Boston and one day, after staring at 20 vacuous stares, I had a talk with my Uncle Bill, a currency trader,” Manning said.

He spent two decades trading commodity futures at his uncle’s brokerage in Boston and stocks at brokerages in Chicago. Then he became a financial adviser to wealthy individuals and families at Merrill Lynch on Cape Cod.

The job at Plymouth County involved a small pay cut, but offered the opportunity to run a nine-figure portfolio for public employees. He got a taste of how painful rising rates could be in May 2013, when comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sent bond prices tumbling in what became known as the “taper tantrum.”

“We lost $20 million in three trading days and it took us 36 months of clipping coupons to make that back,” Manning said. Coupons are the interest payments bondholders receive.

Initially, Manning and O’Brien focused on boosting alternative investments such as private equity and infrastructure, which made up less than 5% of the fund. They were part of a flock of pension funds seeking alternative investments for higher returns .

Plymouth County hired Meketa as a consultant in 2015, and private-equity and infrastructure investments climbed to nearly 15% by 2020, according to fund financial reports. Returns improved.

“They have a level of comfort being different,” said Dynan.

A contrarian call

Markets were on a tear the following year, lifted by the economy’s reopening from the pandemic. But Manning grew concerned in the summer about inflation. While many on Wall Street were calling price increases transitory, he worried inflation would persist, triggering rate increases and declines in stocks and bonds.

“We were going to conferences and being told that inflation was a paper tiger, or ‘this is not your father’s inflation,’” O’Brien said.

Manning consulted Bob Sydow, a high-yield bond fund manager at Mesirow who manages part of the pension’s money. Like Manning, he has worked on Wall Street since the 1980s.

“The money supply grew 43% over 26 months during Covid,” Sydow said. “I called it ‘free-range’ money and I thought it would generate a lot of inflation.”

From October 2021 to February 2022, Plymouth County pension sold about $80 million of its public stocks, or 6% of the fund’s assets, according to an email viewed by The Wall Street Journal. It shifted into real estate and infrastructure as well as short-term and floating-rate debt that is less sensitive to rising rates than traditional bonds, Manning said.

The fund lost 6.5% in 2022 while the median U.S. pension plan lost 14%. That outperformance has helped it stay ahead of other funds, even after it lagged behind the average in 2023.

Now, inflation remains above the Fed’s targets , and analysts’ forecasts for multiple rate cuts this year seem less certain. Plymouth County is keeping its strategy relatively unchanged, betting that rates will remain steady—or even climb.

Many investors are buying back into bonds because yields are at multiyear highs and they expect cuts by the Fed to trigger a rally. Manning takes a different tack. He thinks rates could stay high far longer than the Wall Street consensus, so he is using infrastructure funds to deliver income rather than bonds.

“Why do you have to own bonds at all in 2024?” Manning said. “It’s a legitimate question.”



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Alcohol consumption is dropping in Australia but there’s one market that’s booming nationwide

As Australians develop a taste for craft distilleries — and their products — the local industry is meeting the growing demand with exceptionally good drops

By Robyn Willis
Wed, Jun 26, 2024 6 min

From the Winter issue of Kanebridge Quarterly magazine, on sale now.

It never used to be this complicated to order a drink. Less than 10 years ago, requesting a whisky, a gin and tonic or even a vodka martini was a fairly straightforward affair with a choice of international brands, from Glenfiddich single malt whisky to Absolut vodka and Bombay Sapphire gin.

Now, the drinking landscape is somewhat more complicated — and that’s good news for locals who like a dram of whisky or a cocktail or two.

The Australian distillery industry has gone through rapid growth in recent years, from 30 distilleries nationally less than 10 years ago to more than 600 now. And that’s despite the overall levels of alcohol consumption falling over time across Australia.

CEO of the Australian Distillers Association, Paul McLeay, has a simple explanation.

“Australians are drinking less, but better — and patterns are changing,” he says. “Cask wine sales are down. They’re drinking less boring beer and more interesting products.”

While the distillery industry was already growing, McLeay points to COVID as the impetus for the increasing appetite for flavourful spirits.

“Tastes changed after COVID,” he says. “That home cocktail culture took off as people realised they could make interesting drinks at home — and post photos of them on Instagram.

“That notion of drinking less but better, the idea of fewer drinks on fewer occasions made it feel more special.”

While the Australian wine industry was valued at $5.7b last year, the distillery market is making headway, coming in at $2.5b. However, McLeay says it differs from the wine market, especially in terms of production profiles. For starters, without the need for vineyards, he says the distilleries are equally split between city and regional areas. This is a key advantage for small craft distilleries looking to connect with their local market.

“If you live in Marrickville (in Sydney), you’ll be proud to be drinking a local gin,” he says. “When someone comes to visit, you want to give them something to take home. Spirits allow you to give them a taste of the locality — you can buy it in a bottle.

“For travellers, if people remember the Hellfire Bluff Gin they had on a night out in Hobart, that’s a positive association with the area as well.”

At the moment, he says there are about 500 gin and vodka distilleries around the country, about 100 whisky producers and 50 making rum. With each product having its own flavour profile influenced by local conditions, from the region’s botanicals to its barley, the quality of its rainwater and even the way it is aged, it is good news for consumers seeking variety. McLeay says most distilleries are making multiple spirits to increase commercial opportunity and get product to market quickly.

“The ‘brown’ spirits have had more time,” he says. “Whisky looks clear like gin and vodka initially but over three or four years of maturation, it turns brown. It only takes about a month to make gin, which is why a bottle of gin is generally less expensive than whisky.”

While it might seem as though the homegrown whisky, gin and vodka market has appeared out of nowhere, credit for the modern distillery industry in Australia largely falls to Bill and Lyn Lark from Tasmania who lobbied their local MP in 1990 to change antiquated federal laws that outlawed distilleries that were smaller than 2,700L.

Following the change, LARK Distillery opened in Tasmania in 1992, capitalising on the state’s reputation for growing high quality barley, its clean water, as well as providing the perfect climate for ageing single malt whisky. Support for the Larks’ efforts also followed from  government, as well as mentorship from John Grant from Scottish label Glenfarclas, with their first whisky sent to market in 1998.

Bill Lark says while he knew it was a delicious drop, it wasn’t until the early 2000s that the business kicked up a gear.

“The early 2000s was a period where we and the few other distilleries had to prove their credibility to the market,” he says. “When LARK first won a major award in the World Whisky Awards in 2009 I think it gave the confidence in others to get involved. From day one, inspired by such greats as John Grant from Scotland, I encouraged as many new distillers as possible to become a family of distillers where hopefully we would all be producing a world class product in sufficient numbers for eventually Tasmania and Australia to be recognised as a significant whisky producing region.”

In March this year, LARK was recognised by the World Whiskies Awards in London for crafting Australia’s Best Single Malt and Best Blended Malt.

Bill Lark says the local market really started to accelerate when Australian whiskies began winning awards.

In the intervening years, Australian distillers far and wide have heeded the Larks’ call to create their own spirits, from small family operations focusing on a single product to larger businesses with their eyes firmly set on the world stage.

Fellow Tasmanians Suzy and Cam Brett from Spring Bay Distillery share a passion for whisky and were inspired by their travels and the Larks’ example to start their own business.

“We remember very clearly being told by Bill Lark to make sure you make bloody good whisky!” says Cam. “I think there has definitely been a change in consumer habits.

“People are more engaged with what they are drinking, how it is made, where it comes from and that has increased the popularity of all spirits.”

Suzy says she first experienced whisky while working in Edinburgh in the 1980s. She’s been a fan ever since.

“Whisky is the king of drinks because of the complexity, the ageing and the romance,” says Suzy. “The time it takes the whisky to mature is influenced by barrel size, bond store, location and climate. The larger the barrel, the longer the maturation.

“Some of our large barrels may take 10 years or more to mature and it is a case of ‘it’s ready when it’s ready’ and won’t be rushed.”

Suzy Brett from Spring Bay Distillery says she was inspired by Bill and Lyn Lark to produce an exceptional whisky. Image: Joe Chelkowski

Jake and Tess Eagleton started their Wagga Wagga label, Riverina Gin, in February 2023, after years of discussions, as well as travelling around gin distilleries in the Scottish Highlands, where Jake grew up.

“There are lots of gin distilleries popping up in the Scottish Highlands — I was surprised to see so many,” Jake says. “We started visiting them and often they were on people’s farms and you’d get the chance to meet the maker.”

The couple, who now have three children, were inspired by the notion of a family-run business and, with the help of local winery, Borambola Wines, who offered them a shed, focused on a one-shot distillation method. They have a simple philosophy of making one product really well.

“We try to stand out by not standing out too much — we use fresh organic oranges from the local region so the flavour is citrus forward,” says Jake.

They have also called on connections in their local community, partnering with Paper Pear Gallery in Wagga Wagga to host the Riverina Gin Club events. Expansion will be slow but steady.

“We made sure people knew we were a family-forward business,” says Jake. “We have seen a lot of peaks and troughs with the economy and we have been adaptable because we do a lot of the work ourselves. We have one gin that has been well received.”

Brand director and co-founder of Never Never Distilling Co Sean Baxter has bigger ideas for the business he started with friends George and Tim, with plans to further its expansion into Asia and Europe. Unlike other distilleries that sell via bottle shops as well as online, Never Never is focusing on the hospitality industry to reach bars and hotels. It’s not a surprising strategy given Sean’s former life at Diageo, the peak company for brands such as Johnnie Walker, Tanqueray, Guinness and more.

“I worked as a contractor for Sweet&Chilli as a national brand ambassador for Johnny Walker,” Sean says.

“That gave me access to so many amazing venues and bars and I met a lot of people. I was standing in front of so many people telling incredible brand stories and it sunk in — I wanted to do my own.”

The Adelaide-based business now offers more than a dozen gins and sees the relationships with bartenders and hospitality providers as key to their success.

Co-founder of Never Never Gin, Sean Baxter

“We collaborate with international bartenders to promote the brand in Hong Kong and Singapore, and over the past 12 months we have moved into France,” he says. “That’s been a real eye opener, taking our oyster shell gin to the French — it’s an exciting push.”

The ultimate goal is to create a global brand.

“We didn’t build Never Never Distilling to be small.”

MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

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