Spring — A Stalled Seller’s Market
Does the roadmap out of COVID mean spring selling will finally get underway?
Does the roadmap out of COVID mean spring selling will finally get underway?
Spring may have sprung — but Australian property’s most important residential selling season has yet to bloom.
Despite well-documented records tumbling across the country the past 12 months, all eyes were set on spring and what September would deliver, especially given the moving lockdowns that framed the key metro markets of Sydney and Melbourne.
Predictions are often fraught with miscalculations, however with the end of lockdown now in sight for Sydneysiders and the wider country pushing towards an eventual ‘reopening’, what’s in-store for the remainder of the so-called selling season?
Adrian Kelly, president of the Real Estate Institute of Australia thinks that history is bound to repeat itself.
“Last year when the lockdown restrictions were lifted, all markets bounced back with a vengeance due to all the pent-up demand from being unable to list,” said Mr Kelly. “The same will happen this year as demand is still incredibly strong, coupled with low supply.”
Demand, he adds, continues to drive interest on the back of diminished stock levels.
“Despite the low interest rate environment, we aren’t seeing the usual new properties coming to market. In fact, spring listings are down by a staggering 20% across the county.”
Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist My Housing Market, also believes in a market reset.
“They’re [lockdown measures] a bit like pressing the pause button on the market. What we do is understand where markets were prior to lockdown, where they were heading, and then once we get over the speed bump, understand that they’ll take off from where they were when the interruptions occurred,” said Dr Wilson.
Not all markets are created equal and while Melbourne faces a taller task in returning to a level of ‘normality’ — with agents only recently able to again show properties in person — signs are positive.
after a slow start to spring the Melbourne market, with listing numbers reaching a recent low in the first week of September, the trend has surged 48.5% in the last rolling four-week count, according to CoreLogic, with restrictions on property inspections lifted.
A look at last weekend’s auctions results further heralds an ascendent return.
Despite a dramatic halving of listings — 269 auctions compared to the previous weekend’s 434 — Melbourne’s clearance rate remained strong at 79.3%.
According to My Housing Market, Sydney claimed a clearance rate of 85.2% — its eighth consecutive weekend over 80% — across 641 listings with a median sale price of $1,744,000 for houses sold at auction.
Dr Wilson believes a true Sydney surge, like that in the early part of this year, will be seen as the markets open up.
“As a consequence of a lot of buyer demand having been satisfied and affordability falling, we won’t see the same surge that we’ve had previously this year, but we’ll still see prices growth nonetheless,” said Dr Wilson
“We’re heading, if we finally get there, to sort of more of a normalised environment for house prices, which I believe will grow over the long-term at 3% to 4% a year in major markets [Sydney and Melbourne] even though we’re going to see a 25% increase at Sydney median this year.”
Despite the positive spring predictions and recent upticks, both key metro markets remain prohibitive for first home buyers. It’s a situation Dr Wilson only sees worsening, his data from My Housing Market claiming the number of first home buyers down the last six months in a row, from March to August, for the first time since the 2009 GFC recovery.
“First home buyers are virtually collapsing at the moment and they don’t have a number of those stimulus packages which were also helping them last year. They’re not as significant, those support packages for first home buyers, either at the national level or at the state level,” added Dr Wilson.
As for the shadow cast by talk of a recession? Mr Kelly points to such previously being overcome.
“There is a big difference with the recession we saw during the GFC to the recession we may see this year. And that is that the GFC at the time didn’t seem to have any end date, hence the uncertainty. This time around, we can see an end date approaching of sorts and that obviously revolves around vaccination rates and lifting of restrictions,” said Mr Kelly.
While Dr Wilson agrees in regards to the strength of the property market he concedes there’s little government intervention to offset the effect of an economic downturn.
“We’re certainly closer to a real type of recession over that because we’ve got two big economies in Sydney and Melbourne involved this time… We don’t have the same level of stimulus from the government to offset it [recession]. Economic downturns don’t really affect the housing market. Now, the reason behind that is because they’re usually offset by stimulus in monetary policy.”
For Mr Kelly, the advice upon entering what is the property market’s most important season is to research heavily, have finance approved and not fear looking further afield.
For Dr Wilson, a more cautious approach is recommended.
“It’s still a seller’s market. And the data continues to show us that … sure, there aren’t as many buyers around. But at the same token, there aren’t as many sellers around to force competition.
reia.com.au / myhousingmarket.com.au
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A heritage-listed Federation estate with tennis court, pool and studio, Marika offers timeless elegance and modern family living in the heart of Hunters Hill.
A grand old dame who has stood the test of time, Marika is a slice of Hunters Hill heritage transformed for modern-day living.
Meticulously renovated between 1981 and 1983, with several updates since, Marika made it onto the heritage register in 1999 just in time to signal a new millennium. Today, the modernised mansion is on the market with an auction price guide of $7.5 million, marketed through BresicWhitney’s Nicholas McEvoy.
“The home is a fantastic opportunity for a discerning buyer to get a grand family estate-style property, with a pool, tennis court and grounds, for a price that’s much more affordable than expected,” McEvoy says.
Sitting pretty on the corner of Augustine St and Ryde Rd, the stately Federation residence occupies a sprawling 2472sq m block, which was once part of a 30-acre land grant handed to Frederick Augustus Hayne in 1835. In 1902, he sold it to Dr Leopold Augustus Carter, a local dentist. Two years later, Marika, then known as “Ryde”, appeared in the famed Sands Directory – the social media of its era – a symbol of its architectural significance.
Surrounded by manicured gardens with sculpted hedges, a pool and full tennis court, Marika is a prime example of Federation style with contemporary elements.
Inside, the single-level five-bedroom home showcases intricate craftsmanship, from its decorative gables, period archways and bay windows to the coloured glass panels on multiple doors and windows. Elegant formal rooms have high ornate ceilings that are a preserved nod to Marika’s past, while the more modern spaces are relaxed family-friendly zones.
Thanks to a pavilion-style addition, the L-shaped layout measures 450sq m internally and wraps around a central courtyard that plays host to the alfresco dining terrace and pool, while a wide veranda frames the original front rooms of the house.
Primary living spaces, including the dining area with integrated bar, open to the great outdoors via stacker doors and the 21st century kitchen has a large island bench and a butler’s pantry with hidden access to the triple lock up garage. There is also a dedicated media room, a library or home office, plus a separate family room with a beautiful bay window.
All bedrooms feature built-ins while the main retreat, and a second bedroom, have shower ensuites. The shared bathroom houses convenient twin vanities and a freestanding bathtub.
Beyond the interiors, Marika delivers resort amenities with a full-sized, floodlit tennis court, the pool, barbecue terrace and a self-contained studio apartment with the added bonus of Harbour Bridge glimpses.
Added extras include a converted loft storage space, a large laundry with side yard access, ducted air conditioning, multiple fireplaces, solar panels with a battery backup and modern insulation.
Accessed via Augustine St, Marika is close to St Joseph’s College, Boronia Park shops, local ovals and city transport.
Marika at 59 Augustine St, Hunters Hill is set to go under the hammer on April 26, on site at 9am with a price guide of $7.5 million. The listing is with Nicholas McEvoy and Narelle Scott of BresicWhitney Hunters Hill.
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