‘We got things wrong’: Lowe defends his legacy
The RBA governor is due to step down on September 17
2 min
Outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has defended his legacy in his final speech in the top job, insisting he is not to blame for Australia’s soaring home prices.
Dr Lowe’s final few years at the RBA have been characterised by rapidly rising interest rates, made harder for borrowers to swallow by his earlier forecasts that an upward shift would not commence until 2024.
The cash rate began rising in May last year and is now a staggering 4 percent higher following a record run of hikes, the swiftest since the 1980s, but Dr Lowe is unrepentant.
“The issue that has defined my term more than any other is the forward guidance about interest rates that was provided during the pandemic,” he said in an address on Thursday.
“That guidance was widely interpreted as a commitment, rather than a conditional statement, that interest rates would not increase until 2024.”
Red hot inflation offered the RBA no other choice than to begin a dramatic tightening cycle. He repeated his belief that his assurance of rates remaining on hold was never a firm one.
“There has been much criticism since [rates increased], especially by those who borrowed during the pandemic based on our guidance,” he said.
“I ask that people keep in mind the circumstances we faced in 2020. It was a very scary time. There were credible projections that the unemployment rate would rise to 15 percent and that there would be a deep and lasting economic contraction.
“And even well into 2021, large parts of country were still in stringent lockdowns.”
However, Dr Lowe conceded that “with the benefit of hindsight”, he now believes the RBA “did do too much” in terms of implementing emergency measures in the early stages of COVID.
“But hindsight is a wonderful thing,” he said. “We got some things right, but we got other things wrong.”
He rejects the view that keeping rates at a record low of 0.1 per cent for so long is responsible for home prices rising at one of the fastest paces in history during 2021.
“Rather, it is the outcome of the choices we have made as a society – choices about where we live, how we design our cities and zone and regulate urban land, how we invest in and design transport systems, and how we tax land and housing investment.”
One big thing Dr Lowe does not regret is increasing the cash rate in a bid to get a handle on inflation, acknowledging the move as “unpopular” with much of the public but declaring it “the right thing to do”.
He took a final parting shot at the media, which he claimed had inflamed tensions with “clickbait” news about rates, fuelling “vitriol [and] personal attacks”.
Dr Lowe has spent 43 years at the RBA and the past seven as governor. He officially steps away next week, replaced by current deputy governor Michele Bullock.
Economists forecast her first change to rates will be some time in 2024 – and will likely be a reduction, based on current fiscal indicators.
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The Republican nominee says it would help bring down home prices, though these buyers account for a fraction of U.S. home sales
3 min
Former President Donald Trump said he would ban undocumented immigrants from obtaining home mortgages, a move he indicated would help ease home prices even though these buyers account for a tiny fraction of U.S. home sales.
Home loans to undocumented people living in the U.S. are legal but they aren’t especially common. Between 5,000 and 6,000 mortgages of this kind were issued last year, according to estimates from researchers at the Urban Institute in Washington.
Overall, lenders issued more than 3.4 million mortgages to all home purchasers in 2023, federal government data show.
Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, made his comments Thursday during a policy speech to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan.
Housing remains a top economic issue for voters during this presidential election. Rent and home prices grew at historic rates during the pandemic and mortgage rates climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades. A July Wall Street Journal poll showed that voters rank housing as their second-biggest inflation concern after groceries.
Both major candidates for the 2024 presidential election have made appeals to voters on housing during recent campaign stops, though the issue has so far featured more prominently in Vice President Kamala Harris ’s campaign.
Trump has blamed immigrants for many of the nation’s woes, including crime and unemployment. Now, he is pointing to immigrants as a cause of the nation’s housing-affordability crisis. Yet some affordable-housing advocates and real-estate professionals said Trump’s mortgage proposal would fail to bring relief to priced-out home buyers.
“It’s unfortunate that given the significant housing affordability crisis that is widely acknowledged across most partisan lines, we are arguing about a minuscule segment of the market,” said David Dworkin, president of the National Housing Conference, an affordable-housing advocacy group.
Gary Acosta, chief executive of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, a trade organization, said, “It’s just another effort to vilify immigrants and to continue to scapegoat them for any issues that we have here in the United States.”
A Trump campaign spokeswoman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. can obtain an obscure type of mortgage designed for taxpayers without Social Security numbers, most of whom are Hispanic. The passage of the USA Patriot Act of 2001 allowed banks to use identification numbers from the Internal Revenue Service as an alternative to Social Security, extending a number of financial services to people without legal status for the first time.
Mortgage loans for undocumented immigrants are typically higher interest and borrowers include legal residents who have undocumented spouses, Acosta said. Lenders include regional credit unions and community-development financial institutions.
In his speech, Trump said that “the flood” of undocumented immigrants is driving up housing costs. “That’s why my plan will ban mortgages for illegal aliens,” he said.
Trump didn’t elaborate on how he would enact a ban on such loans.
Though mortgages for undocumented people living in the U.S. are relatively rare, residential real-estate purchases by foreign nationals are big business , especially in expensive coastal cities such as New York and Los Angeles. These sales have declined in recent years, however.
Close to half of foreign purchases are made by people residing abroad, while the other half are made by recent immigrants or residents on nonimmigrant visas, according to an annual survey by the National Association of Realtors. Many affluent foreigners buy U.S. homes with cash instead of obtaining mortgage financing.
In his Thursday speech, which focused mostly on other economic matters such as energy and taxation, Trump proposed other measures to bring down housing costs, including cutting regulations for builders and allowing more building on federal land. Similar ideas appeared in the housing policy outline Harris released in August .
The former president has spoken on housing-related issues in speeches at other recent campaign stops, including in Michigan last month, where he touted his administration’s 2020 overturn of a policy that had encouraged cities to reduce racial segregation .
“I keep the suburbs safe,” Trump said. “I stopped low-income towers from rising right alongside of their house. And I’m keeping the illegal aliens away from the suburbs.”
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