Australia Will Avoid Recession Thanks to Gen X, BlackRock Says
Despite rising interest rates, the total stock of household savings now stands close to A$260 billion
2 min
SYDNEY—Australia’s commodity-rich economy is on track for a soft landing, despite an alarming slowdown over the last year, supported by a household savings and an injection of pension funds as members of Generation X join baby boomers in retirement, according to the world’s biggest asset manager BlackRock .
Craig Vardy, a portfolio manager for BlackRock based in Sydney, told reporters at a briefing that with swarms now tapping their retirement funds, the pool of savings in the economy is rising and is acting to ward off a recession.
Payouts of retirement savings rose by around 7% through 2023 to a record $149 billion Australian dollars (US$98 billion), which is equivalent to about 10.0% of household income, Vardy said. Despite rising interest rates, the total stock of household savings now stands close to A$260 billion.
“There still a lot of savings…which will be a tailwind for the economy, ” Vardy said.
His comments come after data this week showed the economy grew just 0.2% over the fourth quarter of 2023, and by 1.5% compared with the same period a year earlier, the weakest pace in 30 years.
The economic slowdown has developed as the Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered 13 interest rate increases, while surging inflation has fueled the fastest rise in the cost of living since the 1980s.
“Even though we’ve had a really sharp rise in interest rates, household spending has not collapsed,” Vardy said. And while unemployment is rising, it remains low by historic stands.
“That doesn’t feel recessionary to me. A soft landing is the base case,” Vardy said.
The federal government will also deliver income tax cuts midyear which will further bolster funds sitting in bank accounts, he added.
Given that the economy looks unlikely to fall into a ditch, there is no reason to expect that the RBA will move quickly to cut interest rates, he added.
“If you’re a central bank now, the last thing you want to be doing is cutting interest rates now. You will want a higher degree of confidence that inflation is falling,” Vardy said.
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