China’s Deepening Housing Problems Spook Investors
Kanebridge News
    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,627,086 (-0.52%)       Melbourne $991,016 (+0.02%)       Brisbane $1,008,247 (+0.57%)       Adelaide $881,757 (-1.94%)       Perth $857,431 (+0.47%)       Hobart $728,683 (+0.15%)       Darwin $650,080 (-2.29%)       Canberra $1,042,488 (+1.17%)       National $1,052,954 (-0.17%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $754,033 (-0.54%)       Melbourne $493,897 (-0.18%)       Brisbane $575,927 (+2.34%)       Adelaide $460,725 (+2.82%)       Perth $451,917 (+0.14%)       Hobart $507,207 (+0.52%)       Darwin $359,807 (+0.61%)       Canberra $486,447 (-2.01%)       National $534,000 (+0.26%)                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 10,472 (+43)       Melbourne 14,783 (-132)       Brisbane 7,948 (+15)       Adelaide 2,170 (+81)       Perth 5,836 (+49)       Hobart 1,243 (+2)       Darwin 251 (+7)       Canberra 967 (-21)       National 43,670 (+44)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,699 (+113)       Melbourne 8,259 (+38)       Brisbane 1,637 (+2)       Adelaide 386 (+14)       Perth 1,480 (-37)       Hobart 204 (+6)       Darwin 409 (+5)       Canberra 1,034 (+6)       National 22,108 (+147)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $820 ($0)       Melbourne $600 ($0)       Brisbane $640 (-$10)       Adelaide $610 (+$10)       Perth $680 ($0)       Hobart $550 ($0)       Darwin $740 (-$10)       Canberra $680 ($0)       National $675 (-$2)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $760 ($0)       Melbourne $595 ($0)       Brisbane $630 (-$10)       Adelaide $500 ($0)       Perth $625 (+$5)       Hobart $460 (+$10)       Darwin $535 (-$5)       Canberra $550 ($0)       National $595 (-$1)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 6,053 (+221)       Melbourne 6,376 (+263)       Brisbane 4,431 (+5)       Adelaide 1,566 (+60)       Perth 2,666 (-61)       Hobart 431 (0)       Darwin 102 (+7)       Canberra 621 (+19)       National 22,246 (+514)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 10,306 (+260)       Melbourne 6,173 (+102)       Brisbane 2,248 (-24)       Adelaide 399 (+26)       Perth 754 (+14)       Hobart 148 (+5)       Darwin 145 (+9)       Canberra 785 (+39)       National 20,958 (+431)                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 2.62% (↑)        Melbourne 3.15% (↓)       Brisbane 3.30% (↓)     Adelaide 3.60% (↑)        Perth 4.12% (↓)       Hobart 3.92% (↓)     Darwin 5.92% (↑)        Canberra 3.39% (↓)       National 3.33% (↓)            UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 5.24% (↑)      Melbourne 6.26% (↑)        Brisbane 5.69% (↓)       Adelaide 5.64% (↓)     Perth 7.19% (↑)      Hobart 4.72% (↑)        Darwin 7.73% (↓)     Canberra 5.88% (↑)        National 5.79% (↓)            HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.8% (↑)      Melbourne 0.7% (↑)      Brisbane 0.7% (↑)      Adelaide 0.4% (↑)      Perth 0.4% (↑)      Hobart 0.9% (↑)      Darwin 0.8% (↑)      Canberra 1.0% (↑)      National 0.7% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.9% (↑)      Melbourne 1.1% (↑)      Brisbane 1.0% (↑)      Adelaide 0.5% (↑)      Perth 0.5% (↑)      Hobart 1.4% (↑)      Darwin 1.7% (↑)      Canberra 1.4% (↑)      National 1.1% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND         Sydney 28.7 (↓)       Melbourne 30.2 (↓)       Brisbane 30.7 (↓)     Adelaide 25.9 (↑)        Perth 35.8 (↓)       Hobart 37.6 (↓)     Darwin 37.0 (↑)      Canberra 28.5 (↑)      National 31.8 (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND         Sydney 29.2 (↓)     Melbourne 30.4 (↑)        Brisbane 29.5 (↓)     Adelaide 26.3 (↑)        Perth 36.6 (↓)       Hobart 29.7 (↓)       Darwin 45.0 (↓)     Canberra 39.6 (↑)        National 33.3 (↓)           
Share Button

China’s Deepening Housing Problems Spook Investors

Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China drop after developer Country Garden flags more debt problems

By WEILUN SOON
Tue, Aug 15, 2023 8:54amGrey Clock 3 min

China’s latest property crisis is threatening to spill over into the broader economy, worrying investors and causing a broad market selloff.

Chinese stocks fell in Hong Kong and mainland China on Monday, with real-estate developers, electric-vehicle manufacturers and other companies in economically sensitive sectors declining the most. The Hang Seng Index, which is loaded with Chinese companies, dropped 1.6%, taking its year-to-date loss to 5.1%. China’s CSI 300 of large-cap stocks fell 0.73%, and is also in the red for 2023.

The financial struggles of Country Garden Holdings, China’s top surviving privately run developer, have been front-and-centre since it missed interest payments on two U.S. dollar bonds a week ago. The property giant said over the weekend that trading in 11 of its yuan-denominated domestic bonds has been suspended, and that it intends to discuss repayment plans with investors. Country Garden’s Hong Kong-listed shares, which had been relegated to penny-stock status last week, fell another 18%on Monday.

China’s property sector has gone from being a major contributor to the country’s overall growth to a drag on its economy. New home sales increased in the first few months of 2023, providing a glimmer of hope that the worst of the housing downturn was over. The market turned in April, and nationwide sales at China’s top developers have slumped since. Country Garden’s latest problems are likely to turn off potential home buyers, further delaying a housing recovery.

Data released last week showed that China was slipping into deflation. Households, which have racked up high levels of savings, are also borrowing less.

Chinese banks extended the equivalent of $47.8 billion in new loans in July, down nearly half from the same month a year ago. It was also the lowest monthly total in more than a decade, according to data provider Wind. The July figures reflected slightly higher corporate lending and a drop in lending to households.

The loan data was “a big letdown,” as it reflected a lack of demand for borrowing, said May Ling Wee, a Chinese equities portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. “Animal spirits are very low in China, and the government may need to do some pump-priming,” said Wee.

China’s economic troubles are also weighing on its currency. The offshore yuan depreciated past 7.28 to the U.S. dollar on Monday, and is close to its weakest level this year.

The country is scheduled to release a barrage of economic data on Tuesday, including monthly updates for real-estate investment, factory output and retail sales.

Problems are also cropping up in other financial-asset classes in China. Three publicly listed companies said in recent days that they didn’t receive payments they were promised on wealth-management products sold by Zhongrong International Trust, which is part of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, a large domestic Chinese conglomerate. The missed payments are making investors worried about China’s sprawling trust industry, which has been a source of funding for property developers in the past.

Country Garden admitted to having liquidity problems last week and said it expects to post a big first-half loss. A default by the 31-year-old developer could have a bigger impact on China’s economy than the slow-motion fallout from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis that began in 2021, some economists predict.

The company withstood the earlier slump that took down Evergrande and Sunac China, which together with Country Garden had been China’s three biggest privately run developers. “Country Garden’s default would mean a complete reshuffle and reorganisation of China’s real-estate industry,” said Wang Shengzu, global head of asset management at Haitong International.

When Evergrande defaulted on its international debt, China’s economy was in much better shape. The country was enjoying a boom in exports, and global investors widely believed that growth and domestic demand were being suppressed by its strict Covid-19 pandemic restrictions. China has since lifted those restrictions, but its economy has sputtered.

Before the downturn, Country Garden’s annual contracted sales were close to that of Evergrande’s by total value, but the former’s larger presence in China’s less prosperous cities meant it sold more homes at cheaper prices.

Country Garden also has a lot of unfinished property projects, as it was common for Chinese developers to sell partially built homes along with commitments to complete them in a few years. The company’s contract liabilities, a proxy for its unfinished projects, totalled the equivalent of $92.3 billion at the end of 2022, according to Country Garden’s last financial report.

The property sector is at a critical juncture, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group. Plunging sales are a result of weak consumer confidence, and it is going to be hard for non-state-owned developers to survive in the absence of government help, he added. “Policy is the only game in town,” he said, referring to expectations that Chinese authorities will act to stop the market’s continued slide.

Shares of China’s homegrown electric-vehicle manufacturers dropped Monday, after Elon Musk’s Tesla cut prices in the country for two versions of its top-end Model Y car. Domestic rival BYD declined 6.1% in Hong Kong, while Nio, XPeng and Li Auto fell 2% to 3%.



MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

Related Stories
Money
New York Watch Auctions Record Uptick in Sales in the Face of Market Slowdown
By LAURIE KAHLE 24/06/2024
Money
The Crazy Economics of the World’s Most Coveted Handbag
By CAROL RYAN 24/06/2024
Money
Do You Have What It Takes to Be a ‘Personality Hire’?
By CALLUM BORCHERS 22/06/2024
New York Watch Auctions Record Uptick in Sales in the Face of Market Slowdown
By LAURIE KAHLE
Mon, Jun 24, 2024 4 min

Luxury watch collectors showed ongoing strong demand for Patek Philippe, growing interest in modern watches and a preference for larger case sizes and leather straps at the June watch sales in New York, according to an analysis of the major auctions.

Independent and neo-vintage categories, meanwhile, experienced declines in total sales and average prices, said the report from  EveryWatch, a global online platform for watch information. Overall, the New York auctions achieved total sales of US$52.27 million, a 9.87% increase from the previous year, on the sale of 470 lots, reflecting a 37% increase in volume. Unsold rates ticked down a few points to 5.31%, according to the platform’s analysis.

EveryWatch gathered data from official auction results for sales held in New York from June 5 to 10 at Christie’s, Phillips, and Sotheby’s. Limited to watch sales exclusively, each auction’s data was reviewed and compiled for several categories, including total lots, sales and sold rates, highest prices achieved, performance against estimates, sales trends in case materials and sizes as well as dial colors, and more. The resulting analysis provides a detailed overview of market trends and performance.

The Charles Frodsham Pocket watch sold at Phillips for $433,400.

“We still see a strong thirst for rare, interesting, and exceptional watches, modern and vintage alike, despite a little slow down in the market overall,” says Paul Altieri, founder and CEO of the California-based pre-owned online watch dealer BobsWatches.com, in an email. “The results show that there is still a lot of money floating around out there in the economy looking for quality assets.”

Patek Philippe came out on top with more than US$17.68 million on the sale of 122 lots. It also claimed the top lot: Sylvester Stallone’s Patek Philippe GrandMaster Chime 6300G-010, still in the sealed factory packaging, which sold at Sotheby’s for US$5.4 million, much to the dismay of the brand’s president, Thierry Stern . The London-based industry news website WatchPro estimates the flip made the actor as much as US$2 million in just a few years.

At Christie’s, the top lot was a Richard Mille Limited Edition RM56-02 AO Tourbillon Sapphire
Richard Mille

“As we have seen before and again in the recent Sotheby’s sale, provenance can really drive prices higher than market value with regards to the Sylvester Stallone Panerai watches and his standard Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1a offered,” Altieri says.

Patek Philippe claimed half of the top 10 lots, while Rolex and Richard Mille claimed two each, and Philippe Dufour claimed the No. 3 slot with a 1999 Duality, which sold at Phillips for about US$2.1 million.

“In-line with EveryWatch’s observation of the market’s strong preference for strap watches, the top lot of our auction was a Philippe Dufour Duality,” says Paul Boutros, Phillips’ deputy chairman and head of watches, Americas, in an email. “The only known example with two dials and hand sets, and presented on a leather strap, it achieved a result of over US$2 million—well above its high estimate of US$1.6 million.”

In all, four watches surpassed the US$1 million mark, down from seven in 2023. At Christie’s, the top lot was a Richard Mille Limited Edition RM56-02 AO Tourbillon Sapphire, the most expensive watch sold at Christie’s in New York. That sale also saw a Richard Mille Limited Edition RM52-01 CA-FQ Tourbillon Skull Model go for US$1.26 million to an online buyer.

Rolex expert Altieri was surprised one of the brand’s timepieces did not crack the US$1 million threshold but notes that a rare Rolex Daytona 6239 in yellow gold with a “Paul Newman John Player Special” dial came close at US$952,500 in the Phillips sale.

The Crown did rank second in terms of brand clout, achieving sales of US$8.95 million with 110 lots. However, both Patek Philippe and Rolex experienced a sales decline by 8.55% and 2.46%, respectively. The independent brand Richard Mille, with US$6.71 million in sales, marked a 912% increase from the previous year with 15 lots, up from 5 lots in 2023.

The results underscored recent reports of prices falling on the secondary market for specific coveted models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet. The summary points out that five top models produced high sales but with a fall in average prices.

The Rolex Daytona topped the list with 42 appearances, averaging US$132,053, a 41% average price decrease. Patek Philippe’s Nautilus, with two of the top five watches, made 26 appearances with an average price of US$111,198, a 26% average price decrease. Patek Philippe’s Perpetual Calendar followed with 23 appearances and a US$231,877 average price, signifying a fall of 43%, and Audemars Piguet’s Royal Oak had 22 appearances and an average price of US$105,673, a 10% decrease. The Rolex Day Date is the only watch in the top five that tracks an increase in average price, which at US$72,459 clocked a 92% increase over last year.

In terms of categories, modern watches (2005 and newer) led the market with US$30 million in total sales from 226 lots, representing a 53.54% increase in sales and a 3.78% increase in average sales price over 2023. Vintage watches (pre-1985) logged a modest 6.22% increase in total sales and an 89.89% increase in total lots to 169.

However, the average price was down across vintage, independent, and neo-vintage (1990-2005) watches. Independent brands saw sales fall 24.10% to US$8.47 million and average prices falling 42.17%, while neo-vintage watches experienced the largest decline in sales and lots, with total sales falling 44.7% to US$8.25 million, and average sales price falling 35.73% to US$111,000.

MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

Related Stories
Lifestyle
A ‘cheeky’ seat takes out the top prize at Australia’s Next Top Designers Awards
By KANEBRIDGE NEWS 17/06/2024
Money
A Killer Golf Swing Is a Hot Job Skill Now
By CALLUM BORCHERS 14/06/2024
Property
Belle Epoque Estate Lists in France’s Fragrant Perfume Capital
By CHAVA GOURARIE 21/06/2024
0
    Your Cart
    Your cart is emptyReturn to Shop