Job mobility rates at highest levels in a decade

Almost one in every 10 Australian workers changed jobs in the 12 months to February this year, new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveals.

The new figures released today show that 9.5 percent or 1.3 million Australian workers changed their employer or business, the highest level in a decade.

ABS head of labour statistics, Bjorn Jarvis, said job mobility had slowed over the pandemic.

“Job mobility in Australia has generally been trending down for decades and reached a record low of 7.5 percent during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic,” he said. “While the 2023 figure might be higher, and is in fact the highest it’s been since the early 2010s, it’s still relatively low compared to earlier decades.”

While job mobility was highest among labourers, machinery operators and sales workers, Mr Jarvis said workers were more inclined to change industries than occupations.

“People were more likely to change their industry, at 58 per cent, than their occupation, which was 44 per cent, in the year ending in February 2023,” Mr Jarvis said.

Younger workers continued to represent the highest levels of those seeking new roles, with 14.9 of 15 to 24 year olds changing jobs. At the other end of the workforce, those in the 45 to 64 year old age bracket were less inclined to move, with 5.9 percent moving on from their previous job or business.

The ABS also found that there were 1.8 million Australians who identified as potential workers, including 510,000 unemployed people and 1.3 million not in the labour force.

Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”

Job mobility rates at highest levels in a decade

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