Rivian Stock Is Flying After EV Maker Unveils Its R2 and R3 Models

Rivian Automotive stock was surging after the company introduced its new vehicle platform on Thursday.

Investors knew the car was coming, but the electric vehicle start-up sprinkled a couple of extra surprises in its presentation to the delight of its shareholders.

As its name suggests, R2—unveiled Thursday afternoon—is Rivian’s second vehicle platform. It’s a lower-cost product that should enable the company to widen its addressable market with a cheaper price tag. The R2 will start at around $45,000, and is slated to hit the streets in 2026.

The timing was the first surprise. CEO R.J. Scaringe said the car will ship in the first half of 2026. That brings some certainty for investors and, of course, the sooner the better.

“I’m so excited about this vehicle,” said Scaringe. “I’m so excited about what it represents for us as a company in terms of achieving scale.”

Rivian’s first platform, R1, is the base for the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV. Those two vehicles start at around $75,000.

The R2 SUV shown at the event has Rivian’s trademark look. The vehicle—which could be called the R2S if Rivian sticks with its first platform’s naming conventions—is a smaller version of the R1S. The wheelbase is a little shorter than that of the R1S.

The R2’s per-charge range will exceed 300 miles and there will be a tri-motor version that goes from zero to 60 miles an hour in about three seconds.

The second surprise was another vehicle—the R3 and sportier trim called the R3X. It’s another vehicle that will be built on the platform. Pricing and timing for the R3 weren’t part of Scaringe’s prepared remarks. Rivian didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Rivian shares were up 13.8% in late trading at $12.55, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up about 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively.

The stock had gotten a lift even before the R2 launch event, which started around 1 p.m. ET Thursday, thanks to a new call to buy the shares on Wall Street.

Earlier Thursday, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois launched coverage of Rivian with a Buy rating and a $16 price target.

“Rivian has looked closest to Tesla in spirit, with its own software stack, strong brand identity, global potential, and similar growth pain,” wrote the analyst.

(Product launch events weren’t what Houchois was referring to, looked a little like a Tesla product launch event run by Elon Musk.)

The cost of the new platform will be key, the analyst said.

Rivian “is facing two critical if not existential tests this year: (1) deliver a $35,000-to-$40,000 reduction in unit production costs from redesign, purchasing, and manufacturing efficiency; and (2) demonstrate the R2 model can be developed at a significantly lower cost than R1,” wrote Houchois in his coverage launch report.

The new vehicle and Buy rating should come as a relief for investors. Coming into Thursday trading, Rivian stock was down about 53% so far in 2023. Slowing demand growth for EVs, along with disappointing production guidance from Rivian, has pushed down shares.

Rivian expects to produce about 57,000 units in 2024, roughly the same amount produced in 2023. But Houchois sees a silver lining there.

“Slower EV demand and planned second-quarter [plant] shutdowns will constrain growth this year but could also help deliver the sharp $20,000 reduction in unit costs to achieve positive gross margin exiting 2024,” wrote Houchois.

Rivian hasn’t achieved the scale required yet to generate positive profits and cash flow. It delivered about 50,000 unit to customers in 2023. Tesla wasn’t producing consistent profits until it was delivering roughly four times that amount.

Wall Street expects Rivian to use about $4.3 billion in cash in 2024. It ended 2023 with about $9.4 billion in cash, and $10.5 billion in total liquidity.

Overall, 55% of analysts covering Rivian stock have Buy ratings, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target for Rivian stock is about $17.

Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”

Rivian Stock Is Flying After EV Maker Unveils Its R2 and R3 Models

Rivian Automotive stock was surging after the company introduced its new vehicle platform on Thursday.

Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected