Rivian Stock Is Flying After EV Maker Unveils Its R2 and R3 Models
Rivian Automotive stock was surging after the company introduced its new vehicle platform on Thursday.
Rivian Automotive stock was surging after the company introduced its new vehicle platform on Thursday.
Rivian Automotive stock was surging after the company introduced its new vehicle platform on Thursday.
Investors knew the car was coming, but the electric vehicle start-up sprinkled a couple of extra surprises in its presentation to the delight of its shareholders.
As its name suggests, R2—unveiled Thursday afternoon—is Rivian’s second vehicle platform. It’s a lower-cost product that should enable the company to widen its addressable market with a cheaper price tag. The R2 will start at around $45,000, and is slated to hit the streets in 2026.
The timing was the first surprise. CEO R.J. Scaringe said the car will ship in the first half of 2026. That brings some certainty for investors and, of course, the sooner the better.
“I’m so excited about this vehicle,” said Scaringe. “I’m so excited about what it represents for us as a company in terms of achieving scale.”
Rivian’s first platform, R1, is the base for the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV. Those two vehicles start at around $75,000.
The R2 SUV shown at the event has Rivian’s trademark look. The vehicle—which could be called the R2S if Rivian sticks with its first platform’s naming conventions—is a smaller version of the R1S. The wheelbase is a little shorter than that of the R1S.
The R2’s per-charge range will exceed 300 miles and there will be a tri-motor version that goes from zero to 60 miles an hour in about three seconds.
The second surprise was another vehicle—the R3 and sportier trim called the R3X. It’s another vehicle that will be built on the platform. Pricing and timing for the R3 weren’t part of Scaringe’s prepared remarks. Rivian didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Rivian shares were up 13.8% in late trading at $12.55, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up about 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively.
The stock had gotten a lift even before the R2 launch event, which started around 1 p.m. ET Thursday, thanks to a new call to buy the shares on Wall Street.
Earlier Thursday, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois launched coverage of Rivian with a Buy rating and a $16 price target.
“Rivian has looked closest to Tesla in spirit, with its own software stack, strong brand identity, global potential, and similar growth pain,” wrote the analyst.
(Product launch events weren’t what Houchois was referring to, looked a little like a Tesla product launch event run by Elon Musk.)
The cost of the new platform will be key, the analyst said.
Rivian “is facing two critical if not existential tests this year: (1) deliver a $35,000-to-$40,000 reduction in unit production costs from redesign, purchasing, and manufacturing efficiency; and (2) demonstrate the R2 model can be developed at a significantly lower cost than R1,” wrote Houchois in his coverage launch report.
The new vehicle and Buy rating should come as a relief for investors. Coming into Thursday trading, Rivian stock was down about 53% so far in 2023. Slowing demand growth for EVs, along with disappointing production guidance from Rivian, has pushed down shares.
Rivian expects to produce about 57,000 units in 2024, roughly the same amount produced in 2023. But Houchois sees a silver lining there.
“Slower EV demand and planned second-quarter [plant] shutdowns will constrain growth this year but could also help deliver the sharp $20,000 reduction in unit costs to achieve positive gross margin exiting 2024,” wrote Houchois.
Rivian hasn’t achieved the scale required yet to generate positive profits and cash flow. It delivered about 50,000 unit to customers in 2023. Tesla wasn’t producing consistent profits until it was delivering roughly four times that amount.
Wall Street expects Rivian to use about $4.3 billion in cash in 2024. It ended 2023 with about $9.4 billion in cash, and $10.5 billion in total liquidity.
Overall, 55% of analysts covering Rivian stock have Buy ratings, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target for Rivian stock is about $17.
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New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal
Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.
Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.
“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.
CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.
Sydney
Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.
Brisbane
Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.
Adelaide
Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.
Perth
Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.
Hobart
Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.
Darwin
Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.
Canberra
Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.
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