Slowing U.S. Inflation Fuels Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge met forecasts in May, keeping alive expectations that interest rates could fall faster than policy makers forecast.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, increased 2.6% from a year ago, slowing from April’s 2.8% pace. The reading met the consensus of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Core PCE inflation rose 0.1% in the month, compared to a 0.2% increase in April. The headline 12-month reading was 2.6%, slowing from April’s 2.7% pace. In the month, the PCE was flat after rising 0.3% in April, marking the first time consumer prices didn’t go up in six months.

Consensus was met in all readings.

The Fed targets 2% inflation.

“The overall trend we’ve been seeing of disinflation in general isn’t always going to be a smooth ride,” said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree. He expects inflation to keep ticking lower in coming months. “It may be a little more difficult finding out that last mile to get to the Fed 2% goal.”

Treasury yields fell following the data release. Markets have been mostly pricing in an initial 25-basis point interest rate cut in September, plus a second trim still in 2024, according to CME data. Fed officials project only one cut this year. They have said repeatedly that inflation data will determine their next step, and some even left the door open to an interest rate increase.

Forecasts of a more aggressive easing cycle rely mostly on estimates that inflation could collapse as the economy is weighed down by high borrowing costs.

June PCE inflation is due July 26, just ahead of the next rate-setting Fed meeting on July 30- 31.

Inflation is unlikely to accelerate as it did earlier this year, said Scott DiMaggio, director of global fixed income at AllianceBernstein . He warned that year-over-year readings are likely to decline more slowly when compared to the weakening gauges of late 2023.

“We still have some sticky components specially on the services side and that is going to take time to move down,” he said. “We don’t see us getting back to the Fed target until 2025.”

China’s securities regulator is ramping up support for the country’s embattled equities markets, announcing measures to funnel capital into Chinese stocks.

The aim: to draw in more medium to long-term investment from major funds and insurers and steady the equities market.

The latest round of policy boosts comes as Chinese stocks start the year on a soft note, with investors reluctant to add exposure to the market amid lingering economic woes at home and worries about potential tariffs by U.S. President Trump. Sharply higher tariffs on Chinese exports would threaten what has been one of the sole bright spots for the economy over the past year.

Thursday’s announcement builds on a raft of support from regulators and the central bank, as officials vow to get the economy back on track and markets humming again.

State-owned insurers and mutual funds are expected to play a pivotal role in the process of stabilizing the stock market, financial regulators led by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance said at a press briefing.

Insurers will be encouraged to invest 30% of their annual premiums earning from new policies into China’s A-shares market, said Xiao Yuanqi, vice minister at the National Financial Regulatory Administration.

At least 100 billion yuan, equivalent to $13.75 billion, of insurance funds will be invested in stocks in a pilot program in the first six months of the year, the regulators said. Half of that amount is due to be approved before the Lunar New Year holiday starting next week.

China’s central bank chimed in with some support for the stock market too, saying at the press conference that it will continue to lower requirements for companies to get loans for stock buybacks. It will also increase the scale of liquidity tools to support stock buyback “at the proper time.”

That comes after People’s Bank of China in October announced a program aiming to inject around 800 billion yuan into the stock market, including a relending program for financial firms to borrow from the PBOC to acquire shares.

Thursday’s news helped buoy benchmark indexes in mainland China, with insurance stocks leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.0% at the midday break, extending opening gains. Among insurers, Ping An Insurance advanced 3.1% and China Pacific Insurance added 3.0%.

Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, thinks the latest moves could encourage investment in some of China’s bigger listed companies.

“Funds could end up increasing positions towards less volatile, larger domestic companies. This could end up benefiting some of the large-cap names we cover such as [Kweichow] Moutai or high-dividend stocks,” Wang said.

Shares in Moutai, China’s most valuable liquor brand, were last trading flat.

The moves build on past efforts to inject more liquidity into the market and encourage investment flows.

Earlier this month, the country’s securities regulator said it will work with PBOC to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy tools and strengthen market-stabilization mechanisms. That followed a slew of other measures introduced last year, including the relaxation of investment restrictions to draw in more foreign participation in the A-share market.

So far, the measures have had some positive effects on equities, but analysts say more stimulus is needed to revive investor confidence in the economy.

Prior enthusiasm for support measures has hardly been enduring, with confidence easily shaken by weak economic data or disappointment over a lack of details on stimulus pledges. It remains to be seen how long the latest market cheer will last.

Mainland markets will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday from Jan. 28 to Feb. 4.

Slowing U.S. Inflation Fuels Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts

Inflation unlikely to accelerate as it did earlier this year, said AllianceBernstein’s Scott DiMaggio

The latest round of policy boosts comes as stocks start the year on a soft note