Why Now Might Be A Good Time For Adidas To Sell Its Reebok Brand

Adidas might sell its struggling Reebok brand, potentially taking advantage of the strength of athletic goods, which have been a bright spot in apparel during the Covid-19 crisis.

On Monday, Adidas (ticker: ADDYY) said it was reviewing Reebok’s future, which could include a sale. The news comes ahead of the company’s five-year blueprint, which it is set to present in March, although the German athletic giant said it could ultimately decide to keep the brand.

Adidas purchased Reebok for $3.6 billion (A$4.76 billion) in 2006, as it looked to extend its reach in the U.S. But the process wasn’t a smooth one, and Adidas Chief Executive Kasper Rørsted announced a turnaround plan for Reebok shortly after he took the helm in 2016. On the one hand, that has been a success in that Reebok once again became profitable, two years ahead of schedule, and last year increased U.S. sales by double digits.

In another sense, though, Reebok remains a weak point in Adidas’s portfolio. It has lagged behind during the pandemic, with third-quarter sales falling 12.3%, nearly double the flagship brand’s 6.7% decline. Some analysts estimate that Reebok could sell for as little as $2.3 billion (A$3.04 billion), well under what Adidas paid for it.

While many investors have called on Adidas to divest itself of the brand before, now could be a particularly auspicious time for such a move. The pandemic has decimated demand for clothing and accessories in general, as people work and learn at home, but athleisure has bucked that trend.

Companies such as Nike (NKE) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU) have seen sales shrink much less dramatically than peers this year, and have been rewarded with rallies of 34.5% and 52%, respectively. Partner and third-party retailers, including Foot Locker (FL) and Nordstrom (JWN), have highlighted strength in fitness categories, as well, in recent earnings reports.

Athleisure isn’t a new trend, but consumers’ renewed focus on health and comfort during Covid has been a major tailwind. That has led for renewed calls for other companies to sell their outperforming fitness-focused labels, such as Gap’s (GPS) Athleta, although Gap said it plans to hold on to the brand.

That means that if Adidas were to sell Reebok in the near future, it could fetch a higher price, especially if it can continue to show improvement throughout the holiday season.

That would be welcome news for the stock. Compared with Nike and Lululemon, Adidas hasn’t done as well. Its American depositary receipts are up just over 7% year to date, and the European shares have been laggards.

Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”

Why Now Might Be A Good Time For Adidas To Sell Its Reebok Brand

Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected