A Table Outside? More Diners Say No Way

Stretches of severely high temperatures across the U.S. are taking a toll on restaurants.

Customers are avoiding patios during heat waves, cutting into a key source of summertime sales for many restaurants, owners said. Visits in July and August declined from earlier in the year, industry data showed, with chains including Chuy’s and Cheesecake Factory reporting a decline in outdoor business this summer.

“No one’s sitting out in the patio at 100 degrees,” Steve Hislop, chief executive of Texas-based Chuy’s, said during an Aug. 3 earnings call.

Utility expenses are also rising as restaurants run air conditioning at full blast for long stretches of time, operators and industry groups said.

Temperatures climbing to the highest levels in recorded history this summer have hurt hospitality, sports, agriculture and many other businesses. In states such as Texas, weeks of days topping 100 degrees are expected to reduce overall economic productivity.

Restaurants are contending with heat and smoke as many operators are fighting for sales from cash-strapped consumers, and dealing with high inflation in food, labour and other costs.

Diners overall at restaurants in Arizona, Florida and Georgia dropped between 6% and 8% in the first part of August compared with last year’s period, according to OpenTable. The reservation tech company also recorded diner declines in other states running hot this summer, including Texas and North Carolina.

“This summer does feel different,” said Kelsey Erickson Streufert, chief public affairs officer for the Texas Restaurant Association trade group. “It’s a little tougher to get people to come out.”

Employees working at restaurants and bars dipped 1.5% in July compared with the month prior, with steep declines in cities such as San Antonio, New Orleans and Phoenix that recorded high temperatures during the month, according to Homebase, a small business workforce app. The declines likely stemmed from extreme temperatures disrupting consumer spending and foot traffic, Homebase said.

Worker advocates are increasingly making heat an issue in campaigns for improved conditions for restaurant workers. Some are pushing for better enforcement of existing standards and additional federal indoor heat regulations to provide employees breaks and water when temperatures rise.

“We’ve seen 86 degrees on the coolest side of the kitchen,” said Ariana Lingerfeldt, a cook at an Asheville, N.C., restaurant who is a member of the Restaurant Opportunities Centers United worker advocacy group, during an Aug. 9 event pushing for more heat standards. “The air conditioner is unable to keep up with the equipment.”

Some restaurant operators said they are giving their workers more water and rest breaks, since kitchen temperatures can climb steeply despite air-conditioning.

Many restaurants set up patios in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, and have come to rely on them to drive summer sales. New York City, for example, is poised to make expanded outdoor dining in roadways permanent from April to November, and supporters say patios have helped restaurants maintain sales and jobs.

Now, some restaurant owners said those patio sales are drying up when temperatures surge, or wildfire smoke blows.

“When the sun’s on it, it’s literally scalding out there,” said Marc Hochmuth, general manager of City Social restaurant in downtown Chicago, which has a patio. Hochmuth said his business dropped about 20% overall when temperatures soared this summer.

Zoe Dean-Neil, a 20-year-old Pennsylvania resident who was on vacation in Chicago in August, said she opted to eat inside in the air conditioning after a day walking around in the heat. “I don’t want to sit outside and sweat,” she said.

Smoke drifting into the U.S. from Canadian wildfires also affected business at restaurants in parts of the country earlier this summer. John DuBuque, a 31-year-old management consultant from Chicago, said he tried to have a glass of wine outside during one heavily smoky period in the city, and regretted it.

“It was not the vibe,” said DuBuque, who said he now makes more outdoor dining decisions based on the air quality index.

Restaurant owners are trying to work around the weather. Sue Rigler, owner of Hundred Mile Brewing Company in Tempe, Ariz., said she is misting and putting extra fans on her outside beer chilling units to keep them cool. She has also cut back on labor in response to slower sales that she attributes to the heat.

“July was a really hard month,” Rigler said. “We finally got a break at 108, and they call that a break.”

Tom Hutchinson, owner of La Posta de Mesilla and Hacienda de Mesilla in New Mexico, said his hotel and restaurants are promoting cold beers and margaritas to attract customers. He is also hoping to keep people coming to the outdoor space surrounding their adobe building at night when temperatures may fall to the 90s.

“We don’t have humidity in our state and you can tolerate that,” he said.

Longer term, restaurant operators are trying to adjust to more climate-driven variables.

Avram Hornik, owner of the FCM Hospitality group of restaurants, bars and outdoor pop-up venues in Philadelphia, said his sales are down 30% this summer because of weeks of heat and rain. Smoky conditions in June didn’t help, he said.

“I look at it such as being a farmer. The weather controls all,” he said.

Gold is one of the market’s go-to hedges in rocky times. Don’t forget that gold miners’ stocks are too.

The stock market’s gains in 2026 belie the rocky macroeconomic picture: elevated inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions, and jitters about the artificial-intelligence trade. That backdrop, in theory, should be the time for gold to shine. Instead, the price of the yellow metal has tumbled more than 5% so far, after last year’s blistering 65% rally. In part, the U.S. dollar’s recovery has stymied gold, which benefited from the greenback’s weakness in 2025.

Even with the precious metal’s recent weakness, gold mining stocks could be the best way to profit from this year’s uncertainty.

Gold miners “are a valuable hedge against macro risks that would likely be damaging for equities,” BCA Research’s Noah Weisberger and Rishabh Shah wrote this week.

Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next moves to tackle inflation, the increasingly crowded AI trade, and steep valuations for tech stocks are just some of the drivers that could help gold’s price get on even footing— and lead to even bigger gains for miner stocks.

These stocks’ prices tend to outpace gold’s moves, because the companies have fixed operational costs. So when gold’s price rallies, their profit margins soar, and vice versa. For instance, the VanEck Gold Miners GDX +7.39% exchange-traded fund has fallen 11% this year as the metal has slumped.

Now, gold’s price just needs to stabilize to help miners’ stocks take off, and that seems to be happening. The precious metal has recently found support above the $4,000 level, and has stuck in a narrow range since the end of June. But its price rose ever so slightly in July, ending a four-month losing streak for the metal. Technical analysis also suggests that gold is due for a comeback.

Barron’s recently wrote that the pullbacks for both gold miners and the metal itself are overdone. Senior technical analyst Doug Busch noted that the VanEck ETF is on the “verge of a breakout” and has the potential to hit $11o in early 2027, up more than 40% from its current price.

Gold miners also have more than their role as a market hedge going for them. Their fundamentals are solid, too, says Chris Mancini, portfolio co-manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

“Precious metals miners are generating substantial amounts of free cash flow given profit margins of over $2,000 per ounce, and are returning this cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends,” he said in an email.

“Buying the miners is a cheap way to get exposure to the price of gold,” he added. His fund owns Newmont NEM +6.71%, a Barron’s stock pick last year, and Agnico Eagle Mines as top holdings, as well as miners Northern Star Resources, Endeavour Mining, and Kinross Gold K+8.59%.

Miners are better businesses than they used to be, the BCA team added.

“Capex is more disciplined, margins are high and rising…and they are largely independent of the AI story,” Weisberger, BCA’s head of equities, and Shah, a senior analyst, wrote.

That last part is key. AI is disrupting the software industry and many other services and information-oriented businesses, and investors have piled into AI stocks. But ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and other large-language models aren’t going to replace the need to mine for metals.

“Equity portfolios can benefit from exposure to quality that is uncorrelated to AI risk, and gold miners fit the bill,” the BCA team said.

They recommend that investors buy the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which owns top miners such as Agnico, Barrick Mining ABX +7.24%, and Newmont.

An important bonus for big gold miners’ stocks is that their valuations are attractive after the gold’s pullback, too. The VanEck ETF is now trading at just a little more than nine times next year’s earnings estimates. That’s a big discount to its five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 14, according to FactSet.

What’s more, the ETF is currently valued at a more than 50% discount to the S&P 500 SPX -0.17%, which is trading for about 19 times earnings estimates for 2027. Mining stocks have typically traded at just a 25% discount to the broader market over the past five years. So there is significant upside for the group if valuations move back toward normal levels.

One factor that complicates mining stocks as a market hedge, of course, is if stocks bounce back, which has been the case so far in August.

But both the market and economic outlooks remain cloudy, and investors remain nervous about the Fed’s next moves and AI stocks. Gold miners should do just fine, even if the anxious mood on Wall Street persists.

A Table Outside? More Diners Say No Way

Restaurants say heat waves, smoke have hurt their outdoor dining business