All Aboard the Stock-Market Solar Coaster
Much of the climb in solar stocks looks justified by growth prospects, but buyers may still be in for a bumpy ride
2 min
Solar stocks are sizzling—quite an accomplishment for the simplest and most mature of the green-energy technologies. Finding companies that could keep shining might require looking in less obvious places.
The MAC Global Solar Energy Index has generated a 233% return including dividends for dollar investors during the past year. That is well ahead of returns from wind-turbine makers Vestas and Siemens Gamesa, nevermind the S&P 500’s 15%.
As public and political support for green power has broadened, markets have come to expect a decadeslong renewables rollout. It is hard to see any catalyst for a change in sentiment, says Sam Arie, a veteran utilities analyst at UBS. Solar panels can be the cheapest way to generate electricity in many parts of the world. “In some cases it is even cheaper to build a new solar farm than run existing coal plants,” says Alex Monk, a portfolio manager at asset manager Schroders.
The catch is that the shift to renewables doesn’t guarantee shareholder returns. To justify high valuations, investors need to ensure companies have a defensible business as well as growth prospects.
Solar investors have already experienced at least two stomach-churning cycles. A key lesson has been that making panels themselves is a low-margin, hypercompetitive market best avoided. But other parts of the value chain offer better prospects.
For example, SolarEdge and Enphase make power inverters, which convert a solar panel’s power to alternating current and adjust performance to maximize output. Their Nasdaq-listed shares have returned 179% and 444% respectively during the past year and now trade for 72 and 93 times forward earnings. That is a lot of growth priced in. However, the technologies are patent-protected and could also be central to managing a smart home’s power between electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and the like—a potentially vast market.
Developers are another option. They bid for, build and run solar farms. While installing the panels isn’t complex, experience is valuable when pricing bids and navigating the permitting process, and scale is crucial to sourcing panels effectively.
NextEra Energy, Enel and Iberdrola have built huge renewable-power farms as part of wider utility businesses and have ambitious rollout plans for solar and wind. Their shares have given investors total returns of between 16% and 28% over a year, and now change hands for between 15 and 32 times forward earnings. Barclays utilities analyst Dominic Nash credits part of the rise to general growth investors coming into the sector for the first time.
Then there are U.S. residential developers, which offer homeowners rooftop solar-panels paired with battery storage. The products provide added reliability, and monthly payments for the cost of batteries and solar panels that are often lower than existing utility bills. “It’s a pretty easy sale,” says Stephen Byrd, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Shares in SunPower and Sunrun, two such developers, trade at Tesla-type multiples, 118 times and 360 times forward earnings respectively. Revenues will grow—U.S. solar penetration will rise from 3% now to 14% by 2030, says Mr. Byrd—but margins will also come under pressure once installers compete head-to-head rather than with incumbent utilities.
Investors need to choose carefully as the stock-market solar coaster speeds up again. The general direction of travel may be up, but it likely still has plenty of twists and turns in store.
Copyright 2020, Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. LEARN MORE
As Australia’s family offices expand their presence in private credit, a growing number of commercial real estate debt (CRED) managers are turning to them as flexible, strategic funding partners.
Knight Frank’s latest Horizon 2025 update signals renewed confidence in Australian commercial real estate, with signs of recovery accelerating across cities and sectors.
As Australia’s family offices expand their presence in private credit, a growing number of commercial real estate debt (CRED) managers are turning to them as flexible, strategic funding partners.
3 minFamily offices are increasingly asserting their dominance in Australia’s private credit markets, particularly in the commercial real estate debt (CRED) segment.
With more than 2,000 family offices now operating nationally—an increase of over 150% in the past decade, according to KPMG—their influence is not only growing in scale, but also in strategic sophistication.
Traditionally focused on preserving intergenerational wealth, COI Capital has found that family offices have broadened their mandates to include more active and yield-driven deployment of capital, particularly through private credit vehicles.
This shift is underpinned by a defensive allocation rationale: enhanced risk-adjusted returns, predictable income, and collateral-backed structures offer an attractive alternative to the volatility of public markets.
The Competitive Landscape for Manager Mandates
As family offices increase their exposure to private credit, the dynamic between managers and capital providers is evolving. Family offices are highly discerning capital allocators.
They expect enhanced reporting, real-time visibility into asset performance, and access to decision-makers are key differentiators for successful managers. Co-investment rights, performance-based fees, and downside protection mechanisms are increasingly standard features.
While typically fee-sensitive, many family offices are willing to accept standard management and performance fee structures when allocating $5M+ tickets, recognising the sourcing advantage and risk oversight provided by experienced managers. This has created a tiered market where only managers with demonstrated execution capability, origination networks, and robust governance frameworks are considered suitable partners.
Notably, many are competing by offering differentiated access models, such as segregated mandates, debt tranches, or tailored securitisation vehicles.
Onshore vs. Offshore Family Offices
There are important distinctions between onshore and offshore family offices in the context of CRED participation:
-
Onshore Family Offices: Typically have deep relationships with local stakeholders (brokers, valuers, developers) and a more intuitive understanding of planning, legal, and enforcement frameworks in Australian real estate markets. They are more likely to engage directly or via specialised mandates with domestic managers.
-
Offshore Family Offices: While often attracted to the yield premium and legal protections offered in Australia, they face structural barriers in accessing deal flow. Currency risk, tax treatment, and regulatory unfamiliarity are key concerns. However, they bring diversification and scale, often via feeder vehicles, special-purpose structures, or syndicated participation with Tier 1 managers.
COI Capital Management has both an offshore and onshore strategy to assist and suit both distinct Family Office needs.
Impact on the Broader CRED Market
The influx of family office capital into private credit markets has several systemic implications:
-
Family offices, deploying capital in significant tranches, have enhanced liquidity across the mid-market CRE sector.
-
Their ability to move quickly with minimal conditionality has contributed to yield compression, particularly on low-LVR, income-producing assets.
-
As a few family offices dominate large allocations, concerns emerge around pricing power, governance, and systemic concentration risk.
Unlike ADIs or superannuation funds, family offices operate outside the core prudential framework, raising transparency and risk management questions, particularly in a stress scenario.
So what is the answer? Are Family Offices the most Attractive?
Yes—family offices are arguably among the most attractive funding partners for CRED managers today. Their capital is not only flexible and long-term focused, but also often deployed with a strategic mindset.
Many family offices now have a deep understanding of the risk-return profile of CRE debt, making them highly engaged and informed investors.
They’re typically open to co-investment, bespoke structuring, and are less bogged down by institutional red tape, allowing them to move quickly and decisively when the right opportunity presents itself. For managers, this combination of agility, scale, and sophistication makes them a valuable and increasingly sought-after partner in the private credit space.
For high-performing CRED managers with demonstrable origination, governance, and reporting frameworks, family offices offer not only a reliable source of capital but also a collaborative partnership model capable of supporting large-scale deployments across market cycles.
Faris Dedic is the Founder and Managing Director of DIG Capital Advisory and COI Capital Management
The Italian marque has revealed its second High-Performance Electrified Vehicle, the 920CV Lamborghini Temerario, at a spectacular Sydney launch.
An architect’s own home, this Tamarama beach house has been created with love.
