All Aboard the Stock-Market Solar Coaster
Much of the climb in solar stocks looks justified by growth prospects, but buyers may still be in for a bumpy ride
2 min
Solar stocks are sizzling—quite an accomplishment for the simplest and most mature of the green-energy technologies. Finding companies that could keep shining might require looking in less obvious places.
The MAC Global Solar Energy Index has generated a 233% return including dividends for dollar investors during the past year. That is well ahead of returns from wind-turbine makers Vestas and Siemens Gamesa, nevermind the S&P 500’s 15%.
As public and political support for green power has broadened, markets have come to expect a decadeslong renewables rollout. It is hard to see any catalyst for a change in sentiment, says Sam Arie, a veteran utilities analyst at UBS. Solar panels can be the cheapest way to generate electricity in many parts of the world. “In some cases it is even cheaper to build a new solar farm than run existing coal plants,” says Alex Monk, a portfolio manager at asset manager Schroders.
The catch is that the shift to renewables doesn’t guarantee shareholder returns. To justify high valuations, investors need to ensure companies have a defensible business as well as growth prospects.
Solar investors have already experienced at least two stomach-churning cycles. A key lesson has been that making panels themselves is a low-margin, hypercompetitive market best avoided. But other parts of the value chain offer better prospects.
For example, SolarEdge and Enphase make power inverters, which convert a solar panel’s power to alternating current and adjust performance to maximize output. Their Nasdaq-listed shares have returned 179% and 444% respectively during the past year and now trade for 72 and 93 times forward earnings. That is a lot of growth priced in. However, the technologies are patent-protected and could also be central to managing a smart home’s power between electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and the like—a potentially vast market.
Developers are another option. They bid for, build and run solar farms. While installing the panels isn’t complex, experience is valuable when pricing bids and navigating the permitting process, and scale is crucial to sourcing panels effectively.
NextEra Energy, Enel and Iberdrola have built huge renewable-power farms as part of wider utility businesses and have ambitious rollout plans for solar and wind. Their shares have given investors total returns of between 16% and 28% over a year, and now change hands for between 15 and 32 times forward earnings. Barclays utilities analyst Dominic Nash credits part of the rise to general growth investors coming into the sector for the first time.
Then there are U.S. residential developers, which offer homeowners rooftop solar-panels paired with battery storage. The products provide added reliability, and monthly payments for the cost of batteries and solar panels that are often lower than existing utility bills. “It’s a pretty easy sale,” says Stephen Byrd, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Shares in SunPower and Sunrun, two such developers, trade at Tesla-type multiples, 118 times and 360 times forward earnings respectively. Revenues will grow—U.S. solar penetration will rise from 3% now to 14% by 2030, says Mr. Byrd—but margins will also come under pressure once installers compete head-to-head rather than with incumbent utilities.
Investors need to choose carefully as the stock-market solar coaster speeds up again. The general direction of travel may be up, but it likely still has plenty of twists and turns in store.
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Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Supplier Foxconn plans to build more factories and give India a production role once limited mostly to China
4 min
Apple and its suppliers aim to build more than 50 million iPhones in India annually within the next two to three years, with additional tens of millions of units planned after that, according to people involved.
If the plans are achieved, India would account for a quarter of global iPhone production and take further share toward the end of the decade. China will remain the largest iPhone producer.
Apple has gradually boosted its reliance on India in recent years despite challenges including rickety infrastructure and restrictive labor rules that often make doing business harder than in China. Among other issues, labor unions retain clout even in business-friendly states and are pushing back on an effort by companies to get permission for 12-hour work days, which Apple suppliers find helpful during crunch periods.
Apple and its suppliers, led by Taiwan-based Foxconn Technology Group, generally believe the initial push into India has gone well and are laying the groundwork for a bigger expansion, say people involved in the supply chain.
Apple is emblematic of a move among companies worried about over dependence on China to move parts of their supply chains elsewhere, most often to Southeast Asia and South Asia. Diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and its allies to block Beijing’s access to advanced technology and strengthen ties with New Delhi have accelerated the trend.
The first phase of a Foxconn plant under construction in the southern state of Karnataka is expected to start operating in April, and the plant aims to make 20 million mobile handsets annually, mainly iPhones, within the next two to three years, said people with direct knowledge of the construction plans.
A further iPhone-producing mega plant is on Foxconn’s drawing board with capacity similar to the one in Karnataka, although the plans are still in a nascent stage, the people said.
Apple has also chosen India as its site for a manufacturing stage for lower-end iPhones to be sold in 2025. In this stage, known as new product introduction, Apple’s teams work with contractors in translating product blueprints and prototypes into a detailed manufacturing plan. Until now, that work was done only in China.
Combined with plans for expanded production at an existing Foxconn plant near Chennai and at another existing plant recently bought by Indian conglomerate Tata, these developments signify that Apple intends to have the capacity to make at least 50 million to 60 million iPhones in India annually within two to three years, said people involved in the planning.
Annual capacity could grow by tens of millions of units after that.
Foxconn indicated its commitment to India by announcing on Nov. 27 that it was investing the equivalent of more than $1.5 billion in the country, money that people familiar with the matter said would include production for Apple. The announcement didn’t mention the iPhone or name specific locations.
Global iPhone shipments last year totalled more than 220 million, according to research firm Counterpoint, a number that has remained steady in recent years. Because almost all iPhones are made in either China or India, China will continue to account for well over half of iPhone output.
Apple has faced challenges in China this year beyond trade tensions with the U.S., including the Chinese government instructing some officials not to use iPhones at work.
“India’s trust factor is very high,” said Ashwini Vaishnaw, India’s information technology minister.
This year, for the first time, India-made iPhones were introduced on the first day of global sales of the latest model, eliminating the lag with China-made phones.
Supply-chain executives say hourly wages are now significantly lower in India than in China, but other costs such as transport remain higher, and labor unions sometimes resist rule changes sought by manufacturers.
In May, the chief minister of Tamil Nadu state, where Foxconn’s flagship Chennai plant is located, said he would withdraw regulations allowing a 12-hour workday, weeks after the state passed an amendment authorising the longer hours. The chief minister, M.K. Stalin, attributed the decision to opposition from labor activists.
Karnataka state has stood by a decision earlier this year to extend the workday to 12 hours, up from a previous limit of nine hours, though companies must seek approval to do so. A state labor official, G. Manjunath, said new rules also allow companies to employ women on overnight shifts without seeking government approval.
After years of battling local-content rules and other red tape, Apple this year opened its first retail stores in India. Abhilash Kumar, an India-based analyst at TechInsights, said the top-of-the-line iPhone 15 Pro Max was selling well in the country, though it costs about $700 more than in the U.S.
Apple is also making progress in India toward building a network of core suppliers, long a strength of Chinese manufacturing. Officials said this week that Japanese battery maker TDK would build a new factory in India’s Haryana state to manufacture battery cells to power Indian-made iPhones. A TDK spokesman declined to comment.
The moves don’t mean Apple and its suppliers are leaving China. Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook has traveled to China twice this year, stressing the country’s importance as a production hub and consumer market. He visited Luxshare, a China-based assembler that is taking a bigger role in the China portion of iPhone assembly.
On social media, Apple has assured Chinese consumers that iPhones selling in authorised channels are made in China. At an industry event in Beijing that Chinese premier Li Qiang attended in late November, Apple’s booth stressed the company’s business with Chinese suppliers.
Foxconn Chairman Young Liu said in November that China would continue to account for the largest share of Foxconn’s capital investment next year.
Liu has visited India at least three times in the past year and a half, meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other officials. People involved in the planning said Modi’s home state of Gujarat in the west was one possible site of a future Foxconn plant. Meanwhile, the company has other projects in the works in the southern half of the country for electronic components and a plant likely to focus on making AirPods for Apple.
The plant in Karnataka state is under construction on 300 acres of land near the airport in Bengaluru, a southern city that is considered India’s tech hub. Officials involved in the planning said Foxconn has secured approval to invest nearly $1 billion in the plant and is seeking the go-ahead to put in an additional $600 million or so.
Combined with other projects, Foxconn’s investments in the state are likely to reach around $2.7 billion, they said.
Some iPhones are also made at a plant near Bengaluru that India’s Tata Electronics agreed in October to buy from Taiwan’s Wistron. Tata Group is the first local company to take on manufacturing iPhones.
“Apple has created an additional spoke in its India strategy by roping in the country’s largest business group—Tata—to be a part of its manufacturing system in addition to Foxconn,” said India’s junior information-technology minister, Rajeev Chandrasekhar.
—Shan Li in New Delhi and Selina Cheng in Hong Kong contributed to this article.
Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
