APRA Says House Prices Not Its Job
The prudential regulator has reminded the government of its focus.
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The Australian Prudential Regulatory Association (APRA) has told the government its responsibility is financial stability and lending practices, not house prices which are on an unprecedented rise across our nation’s capitals.
The soaring housing prices, which has seen an increase in 2.1% growth in February alone, the fastest pace in almost 17 years, has seen calls for regulators to cool the market.
“It’s not our job to solve house prices and it’s not our job to solve house pricing affordability. The extent to which there is dynamic emerging of increased risk-taking by the community … at this stage it’s not evident,” APRA chairman Wayne Byres told a federal parliamentary committee on Monday.
When questioned at the live-streamed House Standing Committee on Economics hearing, whether the regulator was concerned about young people and first home buyers being priced out of the market Mr Byres reminded the government that the regulator’s focus was on lending practices and not housing.
“I think the bank has been very clear, and we have been very clear, in saying our job is not to set or seek to target house prices,” Mr Byres said.
Mr Byres acknowledged credit restrictions could have a knock-on effect on housing prices, however, reiterated APRA’s position.
“The last statement from the Council of Financial Regulators said quite clearly we are watching for a deterioration in lending standards and that’s not evident at this point,” Mr Byres said. “That is not to say it won’t emerge, but it’s not obvious at this point. We are watching with our fellow regulators.”
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Mortgage holders should brace themselves for more pain as the Reserve Bank of Australia board prepares to meet tomorrow for the first time this year.
Most economists and the major banks are predicting a rise of 25 basis points will be announced, although the Commonwealth Bank suggests that the RBA may take the unusual step of a 40 basis point rise to bring the interest rate up to a more conventional 3.5 percent. This would allow the RBA to step back from further rate rises for the next few months as it assesses the impact of tightening monetary policy on the economy.
The decision by the RBA board to make consecutive rate rises since April last year is an attempt to wrestle inflation down to a more manageable 3 or 4 percent. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports that the inflation rate rose to 7.8 percent over the December quarter, the highest it has been since 1990, reflected in higher prices for food, fuel and construction.
Higher interest rates have coincided with falling home values, which Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee says are down 6.1 percent in capital cities since peaking in March 2022. The pain has been greatest in Sydney, where prices have dropped 10.8 percent since February last year. Melbourne and Canberra recorded similar, albeit smaller falls, while capitals like Adelaide, which saw property prices fall 1.8 percent, are less affected.
Although prices may continue to decline, Ms Conisbee (below) said there are signs the pace is slowing and that inflation has peaked.
“December inflation came in at 7.8 per cent with construction, travel and electricity costs being the biggest drivers. It is likely that we are now at peak,” Ms Conisbee said.
“Many of the drivers of high prices are starting to be resolved. Shipping costs are now down almost 90 per cent from their October 2021 peak (as measured by the Baltic Dry Index), while crude oil prices have almost halved from March 2022. China is back open and international migration has started up again.
“Even construction costs look like they are close to plateau. Importantly, US inflation has pulled back from its peak of 9.1 per cent in June to 6.5 per cent in December, with many of the drivers of inflation in this country similar to Australia.”
