Australia Is The Lucky Country
Certainly when backed by the property market – but what of risk and the shadow of rumoured rate rises?
4 min
OPINION
The end of financial year normally marks an annual ritual of self-assessment.
Which really means a financial appraisal of one’s investment portfolio performance relative to the market, as well as creating financial goals for the next 12 months.
A key takeaway from living through the extraordinary circumstances due to Covid-19 is, of course, to expect the unexpected.
According to Credit Suisse, Australians have become financially the wealthiest people in the world. This has been driven by the ongoing performance of our two principal sources of wealth – housing and financial assets, underpinned by robust GDP growth.
With record-low interest rates, asset prices have essentially experienced a boom — house prices being the largest contributing factor by adding an extra 7 trillion dollars to Austraila’s net wealth.
Whilst still within the epicentre of the pandemic, Australia has performed remarkably well, notwithstanding international border closures and associated lack of tourism and international students.
Remarkably, the construction industry and certain property types, such as units, have not faltered despite limited international immigration and a substantial exodus of temporary residents from Australia.
In fact, due to record iron ore prices and an increase in demand for mining products in combination with an elevated Australian dollar, we are one of only three countries in the world with GDP now higher than pre-pandemic levels. Again, Australians have collectively fared much better compared to the rest of world.
As a result, the extraordinary V shape recovery is placing pressure on supply chain constraints and the combination of labour shortages resulting in ‘inflation bells’ sounding the alarm.
In line with my last article, inflation confidence, the current debate over inflation is becoming the number one “hot” economic topic, as the risk to the economy and its stability is based on interest rates remaining low in the medium term.
We are presently operating under the Reserve Bank’s proclamation that interest rates will remain unchanged until 2023. Ultimately, interest rates may need to rise earlier to combat inflation if required. This will inevitably deflate most asset classes modestly at best, or, at worst, will result in a crash and economic recession. As the market grapples with the two opposing views on whether inflation is transitionary or not, we should anticipate more volatility and heated debate on this topic.
It is Msquared’s view that inflation is indeed transitionary and that the government will intervene in the investment property market if or when required to ensure the market does not overheat.
We believe that if the government is unable to open international borders at the end of the year — and manage the vaccination rollout more effectively — there is a real risk and impact to both economic fundamentals and our overall business consumer confidence.
In considering the current economic environment and the uncertainty created by Covid-19. How can investors continue investing with confidence?
The collective wisdom of the greatest and most successful investor’s such as Warren Buffet, Jack Bogle, George Soros and Ray Dalio, just to name a few, put it down to a simple formula of the following:
- Understanding risk.
- Diversification across asset classes.
- Ensuring that you are constantly invested in the market irrespective of the current market cycles.
Put simply, the understanding of risk is the appreciation of the loss of capital relative to the reward. Most investors’ attention is drawn to the promises of return rather than an assessment of any downside risk, such as the possibility of losing capital.
Ultimately, once an investor experiences capital losses one of two behaviours emerges:
- The fear of investing
- Taking an even greater risk on future investments in an attempt to recoup the loss.
Either strategy is essentially a disaster long-term.
Understanding and appreciating risk is a learnt skill and you can now tap into the acquired knowledge which suggests:
- To pause the temptation of trying to predict the market.
- Not to follow fads and trends.
- Not be swept up in the emotion of the moment.
As a result, we are experiencing structural changes to the investment market, there is excess capital and higher asset prices result in yield compression across all the markets. Demand for mortgages and alternative investment has never been higher. Investors are seeking higher returns due to favourable economic market conditions with disregard to the higher risks, which is a clear danger to investors if not managed appropriately.
Paul Miron has more than 20 years experience in banking and commercial finance. After rising to senior positions for various Big Four banks, he started his own financial services business in 2004.
Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Supplier Foxconn plans to build more factories and give India a production role once limited mostly to China
4 min
Apple and its suppliers aim to build more than 50 million iPhones in India annually within the next two to three years, with additional tens of millions of units planned after that, according to people involved.
If the plans are achieved, India would account for a quarter of global iPhone production and take further share toward the end of the decade. China will remain the largest iPhone producer.
Apple has gradually boosted its reliance on India in recent years despite challenges including rickety infrastructure and restrictive labor rules that often make doing business harder than in China. Among other issues, labor unions retain clout even in business-friendly states and are pushing back on an effort by companies to get permission for 12-hour work days, which Apple suppliers find helpful during crunch periods.
Apple and its suppliers, led by Taiwan-based Foxconn Technology Group, generally believe the initial push into India has gone well and are laying the groundwork for a bigger expansion, say people involved in the supply chain.
Apple is emblematic of a move among companies worried about over dependence on China to move parts of their supply chains elsewhere, most often to Southeast Asia and South Asia. Diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and its allies to block Beijing’s access to advanced technology and strengthen ties with New Delhi have accelerated the trend.
The first phase of a Foxconn plant under construction in the southern state of Karnataka is expected to start operating in April, and the plant aims to make 20 million mobile handsets annually, mainly iPhones, within the next two to three years, said people with direct knowledge of the construction plans.
A further iPhone-producing mega plant is on Foxconn’s drawing board with capacity similar to the one in Karnataka, although the plans are still in a nascent stage, the people said.
Apple has also chosen India as its site for a manufacturing stage for lower-end iPhones to be sold in 2025. In this stage, known as new product introduction, Apple’s teams work with contractors in translating product blueprints and prototypes into a detailed manufacturing plan. Until now, that work was done only in China.
Combined with plans for expanded production at an existing Foxconn plant near Chennai and at another existing plant recently bought by Indian conglomerate Tata, these developments signify that Apple intends to have the capacity to make at least 50 million to 60 million iPhones in India annually within two to three years, said people involved in the planning.
Annual capacity could grow by tens of millions of units after that.
Foxconn indicated its commitment to India by announcing on Nov. 27 that it was investing the equivalent of more than $1.5 billion in the country, money that people familiar with the matter said would include production for Apple. The announcement didn’t mention the iPhone or name specific locations.
Global iPhone shipments last year totalled more than 220 million, according to research firm Counterpoint, a number that has remained steady in recent years. Because almost all iPhones are made in either China or India, China will continue to account for well over half of iPhone output.
Apple has faced challenges in China this year beyond trade tensions with the U.S., including the Chinese government instructing some officials not to use iPhones at work.
“India’s trust factor is very high,” said Ashwini Vaishnaw, India’s information technology minister.
This year, for the first time, India-made iPhones were introduced on the first day of global sales of the latest model, eliminating the lag with China-made phones.
Supply-chain executives say hourly wages are now significantly lower in India than in China, but other costs such as transport remain higher, and labor unions sometimes resist rule changes sought by manufacturers.
In May, the chief minister of Tamil Nadu state, where Foxconn’s flagship Chennai plant is located, said he would withdraw regulations allowing a 12-hour workday, weeks after the state passed an amendment authorising the longer hours. The chief minister, M.K. Stalin, attributed the decision to opposition from labor activists.
Karnataka state has stood by a decision earlier this year to extend the workday to 12 hours, up from a previous limit of nine hours, though companies must seek approval to do so. A state labor official, G. Manjunath, said new rules also allow companies to employ women on overnight shifts without seeking government approval.
After years of battling local-content rules and other red tape, Apple this year opened its first retail stores in India. Abhilash Kumar, an India-based analyst at TechInsights, said the top-of-the-line iPhone 15 Pro Max was selling well in the country, though it costs about $700 more than in the U.S.
Apple is also making progress in India toward building a network of core suppliers, long a strength of Chinese manufacturing. Officials said this week that Japanese battery maker TDK would build a new factory in India’s Haryana state to manufacture battery cells to power Indian-made iPhones. A TDK spokesman declined to comment.
The moves don’t mean Apple and its suppliers are leaving China. Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook has traveled to China twice this year, stressing the country’s importance as a production hub and consumer market. He visited Luxshare, a China-based assembler that is taking a bigger role in the China portion of iPhone assembly.
On social media, Apple has assured Chinese consumers that iPhones selling in authorised channels are made in China. At an industry event in Beijing that Chinese premier Li Qiang attended in late November, Apple’s booth stressed the company’s business with Chinese suppliers.
Foxconn Chairman Young Liu said in November that China would continue to account for the largest share of Foxconn’s capital investment next year.
Liu has visited India at least three times in the past year and a half, meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other officials. People involved in the planning said Modi’s home state of Gujarat in the west was one possible site of a future Foxconn plant. Meanwhile, the company has other projects in the works in the southern half of the country for electronic components and a plant likely to focus on making AirPods for Apple.
The plant in Karnataka state is under construction on 300 acres of land near the airport in Bengaluru, a southern city that is considered India’s tech hub. Officials involved in the planning said Foxconn has secured approval to invest nearly $1 billion in the plant and is seeking the go-ahead to put in an additional $600 million or so.
Combined with other projects, Foxconn’s investments in the state are likely to reach around $2.7 billion, they said.
Some iPhones are also made at a plant near Bengaluru that India’s Tata Electronics agreed in October to buy from Taiwan’s Wistron. Tata Group is the first local company to take on manufacturing iPhones.
“Apple has created an additional spoke in its India strategy by roping in the country’s largest business group—Tata—to be a part of its manufacturing system in addition to Foxconn,” said India’s junior information-technology minister, Rajeev Chandrasekhar.
—Shan Li in New Delhi and Selina Cheng in Hong Kong contributed to this article.
Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
