Inflation Confidence

OPINION

The Government — particularly Josh Frydenberg — is breathing a sigh of relief as the most recent positive economic data demonstrates a strong Australian economy.

Inflation is now both locally and internationally the hottest and most controversial economic topic for the year. Put simply, it’s because the entire global economic recovery hinges on the ability of central banks to keep interest rates low for an extended period in order to give the global economy the push it needs towards a full recovery.

The most recent Australian inflation figures have come in lower than anticipated at 1.1% per annum. This re-affirms the RBA’s carefully articulated argument about maintaining low interest rates until the economy reaches a level of full employment. Unemployment is now down to 5.6%, consumer spending is racing back to pre-Covid-19 levels, and trade figures are strong due to high iron ore prices — all of which contributed to a $30b windfall in the current budget figures.

It seems the ‘Achilles’ heel’ to all this good news is inflation uncertainty.

The topic of inflation has not been part of our vocabulary since the era when Paul Keating was treasurer in the 1980s and Australia experienced “the recession we had to have”.

An analogy that best describes the importance of inflation is that like watering a plant, both too little or too much water may kill it. And so it is the right balance of low constant inflation increases business profits over the long term — increasing business productivity. Such strategy helps to reduce unemployment, increases tax revenue and naturally erodes the real value of debt.

Too much inflation can have the opposite impact. The most powerful tool left to control high levels of inflation is the RBA’s use of contractionary monetary policy (increasing interest rates). However, this is not without risk — done prematurely, it will have a negative price impact on assets such as shares and property, further stunting economic growth and possibly spiralling the economy into a recession.

Governments and central banks will need to put on a brave face and maintain confidence in their ability to steer the global economies through these tricky times. A loss of confidence from consumers and businesses is enough of a catalyst for a self-fulfilling prophecy for inflation issues to emerge unfavourably.

This is, in itself, a very thought-provoking concept as inflation is not purely driven by economic data and activity. It is also driven by the future expectation of businesses and workers, which drive businesses to make decisions such as increasing prices on goods and services and employees hitting up bosses for a pay rise.

Covid-19 has completely skewed economic data

Worth contemplating when attempting to interpret economic data is the “base effect”. Covid-19 forced the economy to a complete standstill, with all the major economic indicators falling off a cliff. Once the economy has been rebooted from a virtual standstill, the economic indicators are all being overly exacerbated during the economic recovery. As an example, we have had two quarters of GDP growth at 3%, however, our economy is still nowhere near the same levels as it was pre-Covid-19 despite the data implying otherwise.

Be prepared that the next inflation figure will be an absolute whopper, as it will reflect people returning to work and spending money on normal items such as childcare, entertainment and transport.

—

Paul Miron has more than 20 years experience in banking and commercial finance. After rising to senior positions for various Big Four banks, he started his own financial services business in 2004.

MSQ Capital

msquaredcapital.com.au

Family offices are increasingly asserting their dominance in Australia’s private credit markets, particularly in the commercial real estate debt (CRED) segment.

With more than 2,000 family offices now operating nationally—an increase of over 150% in the past decade, according to KPMG—their influence is not only growing in scale, but also in strategic sophistication.

Traditionally focused on preserving intergenerational wealth, COI Capital has found that family offices have broadened their mandates to include more active and yield-driven deployment of capital, particularly through private credit vehicles.

This shift is underpinned by a defensive allocation rationale: enhanced risk-adjusted returns, predictable income, and collateral-backed structures offer an attractive alternative to the volatility of public markets.

The Competitive Landscape for Manager Mandates

As family offices increase their exposure to private credit, the dynamic between managers and capital providers is evolving. Family offices are highly discerning capital allocators.

They expect enhanced reporting, real-time visibility into asset performance, and access to decision-makers are key differentiators for successful managers. Co-investment rights, performance-based fees, and downside protection mechanisms are increasingly standard features.

While typically fee-sensitive, many family offices are willing to accept standard management and performance fee structures when allocating $5M+ tickets, recognising the sourcing advantage and risk oversight provided by experienced managers. This has created a tiered market where only managers with demonstrated execution capability, origination networks, and robust governance frameworks are considered suitable partners.

Notably, many are competing by offering differentiated access models, such as segregated mandates, debt tranches, or tailored securitisation vehicles.

Onshore vs. Offshore Family Offices

There are important distinctions between onshore and offshore family offices in the context of CRED participation:

Onshore Family Offices: Typically have deep relationships with local stakeholders (brokers, valuers, developers) and a more intuitive understanding of planning, legal, and enforcement frameworks in Australian real estate markets. They are more likely to engage directly or via specialised mandates with domestic managers.
Offshore Family Offices: While often attracted to the yield premium and legal protections offered in Australia, they face structural barriers in accessing deal flow. Currency risk, tax treatment, and regulatory unfamiliarity are key concerns. However, they bring diversification and scale, often via feeder vehicles, special-purpose structures, or syndicated participation with Tier 1 managers.

COI Capital Management has both an offshore and onshore strategy to assist and suit both distinct Family Office needs.

Impact on the Broader CRED Market

The influx of family office capital into private credit markets has several systemic implications:

Family offices, deploying capital in significant tranches, have enhanced liquidity across the mid-market CRE sector.
Their ability to move quickly with minimal conditionality has contributed to yield compression, particularly on low-LVR, income-producing assets.
As a few family offices dominate large allocations, concerns emerge around pricing power, governance, and systemic concentration risk.

Unlike ADIs or superannuation funds, family offices operate outside the core prudential framework, raising transparency and risk management questions, particularly in a stress scenario.

So what is the answer? Are Family Offices the most Attractive?

Yes—family offices are arguably among the most attractive funding partners for CRED managers today. Their capital is not only flexible and long-term focused, but also often deployed with a strategic mindset.

Many family offices now have a deep understanding of the risk-return profile of CRE debt, making them highly engaged and informed investors.

They’re typically open to co-investment, bespoke structuring, and are less bogged down by institutional red tape, allowing them to move quickly and decisively when the right opportunity presents itself. For managers, this combination of agility, scale, and sophistication makes them a valuable and increasingly sought-after partner in the private credit space.

For high-performing CRED managers with demonstrable origination, governance, and reporting frameworks, family offices offer not only a reliable source of capital but also a collaborative partnership model capable of supporting large-scale deployments across market cycles.

Faris Dedic is the Founder and Managing Director of DIG Capital Advisory and COI Capital Management