Australians living longer and in better health, but it comes at a cost
The Federal Government’s Intergenerational Report flags changes to employment and taxation as the number of older Australians is set to double
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Australians are set to live longer and be in better health into their later years, but that means future generations will need to shoulder a bigger tax burden to pay for it.
Those are some of the major findings of the government’s much-anticipated Intergenerational Report, to be released on Thursday by Treasurer Jim Chalmers.
The report, the fifth of its kind produced over the past 20 years, makes key social and economic forecasts about the next four decades – and what needs to be done to sustain those changes.
It will show life expectancy is set to rise to 87 years for men and 89.5 years for women by 2062-63.
The proportion of the population aged over 65 is forecast to double, while the number of people over 85 is set to triple, which the report concedes is “an ongoing economic and fiscal challenge”.
The economic consequences of those changes will be significant, with health spending expected to increase sharply, Dr Chalmers said.
Four other main expenditure areas of the Commonwealth budget, being aged care, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, interest on debt, and defence – will leap from one-third of total government spend to one half.
In particular, the so-called ‘care economy’ will almost double from eight per cent of GDP to about 15 per cent in 2062-63.
“Whether it’s health care, aged care, disabilities or early childhood education – we’ll need more well-trained workers to meet the growing demand for quality care over the next 40 years,” Dr Chalmers said.
“The care sector is where the lion’s share of opportunities in our economy will be created.”
Productivity, which has slumped for several tears now, is expected to remain flat and the report has revised down growth “from its 30-year average of around 1.5% to the recent 20-year average of around 1.2%”.
“Placing more weight on recent history better reflects headwinds to productivity growth, such as continued structural change towards service industries, the costs of climate change, and diminishing returns from past reforms,” it reads.
“This downgrade is consistent with forecasts in other advanced economies.”
Australia’s population in 40 years’ time is projected to hit 40 million, although the rate of growth will slow. The economy will rely more greatly on migration to meet skills shortages.
Dr Chalmers said the Intergenerational Report is a warning of the need to ensure the coming changes “work for us and not against us”.
“We’ve shown and demonstrated a willingness and an ability to make difficult decisions to put the budget on a more sustainable footing,” he said.
The report’s findings will spark renewed debate about the need for broad-based tax reform, forecasting a growing reliance on income tax as other revenue – like company tax and the GST – plateaus in the next decade.
One section of the report reads: “Structural changes to the economy are projected to put pressure on the revenue base over the coming decades.”
But rather than raising the GST, Dr Chalmers has flagged tax reform targeting multinationals, the petroleum resource rent tax, high-balance superannuation and cigarettes as possible areas of focus.
Ahead of the report’s release, the Business Council of Australia this week unveiled its national plan to grow productivity and increase competitiveness via a package of reforms.
“If we want sustained wages growth and to maintain full employment, the nation needs a reinvigorated economic growth agenda driven by large-scale investment, higher productivity and greater innovation,’’ the group’s president Tim Reed said.
“Our [plan] outlines how to deliver that agenda – putting forward the big ideas to dramatically alter Australia’s economic trajectory to deliver higher living standards.’’
Among its proposed policies are calls for microeconomic reform, a 10-year net zero roadmap and an overhaul of taxation.
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The lunar flyby would be the deepest humans have traveled in space in decades.
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It’s go time for the highest-stakes mission at NASA in more than 50 years.
On April 1, the agency is set to launch four astronauts around the moon, the deepest human spaceflight since the final Apollo lunar landing in 1972.
The launch window for Artemis II , as the mission is called, opens at 6:24 p.m. ET.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration teams have been preparing the vehicles to depart from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center on the planned roughly 10-day trip. Crew members have trained for years for this moment.
Reid Wiseman, the NASA astronaut serving as mission commander, said he doesn’t fear taking the voyage. A widower, he does worry at times about what he is putting his daughters through.
“I could have a very comfortable life for them,” Wiseman said in an interview last September.
“But I’m also a human, and I see the spirit in their eyes that is burning in my soul too. And so we’ve just got to never stop going.”
Wiseman’s crewmates on Artemis II are NASA’s Victor Glover and Christina Koch, as well as Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen.
What are the goals for Artemis II?
The biggest one: Safely fly the crew on vehicles that have never carried astronauts before.
The towering Space Launch System rocket has the job of lofting a vehicle called Orion into space and on its way to the moon.
Orion is designed to carry the crew around the moon and back. Myriad systems on the ship—life support, communications, navigation—will be tested with the astronauts on board.
SLS and Orion don’t have much flight experience. The vehicles last flew in 2022, when the agency completed its uncrewed Artemis I mission .
How is the mission expected to unfold?
Artemis II will begin when SLS takes off from a launchpad in Florida with Orion stacked on top of it.
The so-called upper stage of SLS will later separate from the main part of the rocket with Orion attached, and use its engine to set up the latter vehicle for a push to the moon.
After Orion separates from the upper stage, it will conduct what is called a translunar injection—the engine firing that commits Orion to soaring out to the moon. It will fly to the moon over the course of a few days and travel around its far side.
Orion will face a tough return home after speeding through space. As it hits Earth’s atmosphere, Orion will be flying at 25,000 miles an hour and face temperatures of 5,000 degrees as it slows down. The capsule is designed to land under parachutes in the Pacific Ocean, not far from San Diego.
Is it possible Artemis II will be delayed?
Yes.
For safety reasons, the agency won’t launch if certain tough weather conditions roll through the Cape Canaveral, Fla., area. Delays caused by technical problems are possible, too. NASA has other dates identified for the mission if it doesn’t begin April 1.
Who are the astronauts flying on Artemis II?
The crew will be led by Wiseman, a retired Navy pilot who completed military deployments before joining NASA’s astronaut corps. He traveled to the International Space Station in 2014.
Two other astronauts will represent NASA during the mission: Glover, an experienced Navy pilot, and Koch, who began her career as an electrical engineer for the agency and once spent a year at a research station in the South Pole. Both have traveled to the space station before.
Hansen is a military pilot who joined Canada’s astronaut corps in 2009. He will be making his first trip to space.
Koch’s participation in Artemis II will mark the first time a woman has flown beyond orbits near Earth. Glover and Hansen will be the first African-American and non-American astronauts, respectively, to do the same.
What will the astronauts do during the flight?
The astronauts will evaluate how Orion flies, practice emergency procedures and capture images of the far side of the moon for scientific and exploration purposes (they may become the first humans to see parts of the far side of the lunar surface). Health-tracking projects of the astronauts are designed to inform future missions.
Those efforts will play out in Orion’s crew module, which has about two minivans worth of living area.
On board, the astronauts will spend about 30 minutes a day exercising, using a device that allows them to do dead lifts, rowing and more. Sleep will come in eight-hour stretches in hammocks.
There is a custom-made warmer for meals, with beef brisket and veggie quiche on the menu.
Each astronaut is permitted two flavored beverages a day, including coffee. The crew will hold one hourlong shared meal each day.
The Universal Waste Management System—that’s the toilet—uses air flow to pull fluid and solid waste away into containers.
What happens after Artemis II?
Assuming it goes well, NASA will march on to Artemis III, scheduled for next year. During that operation, NASA plans to launch Orion with crew members on board and have the ship practice docking with lunar-lander vehicles that Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin have been developing. The rendezvous operations will occur relatively close to Earth.
NASA hopes that its contractors and the agency itself are ready to attempt one or more lunar landing missions in 2028. Many current and former spaceflight officials are skeptical that timeline is feasible.
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