Cash rate remains steady as RBA exercises caution
While payments have not increased, mortgage holders may be waiting a while yet before seeing a drop in rates
2 min
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the cash rate on hold at its first meeting for 2024, as it takes a cautious approach to last week’s news on inflation.
In a statement released earlier today, the board said rates would remain at 4.35 percent with the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 percent.
The announcement was widely expected, with most economists pointing to September as the likely date for a fall in rates to start. This is despite inflation slowing to 4.1 percent in December, a greater than expected drop.
“Inflation continued to ease in the December quarter,” the RBA Board said in a statement. “Despite this progress, inflation remains high at 4.1 percent. Goods price inflation was lower than the RBA’s November forecasts. It has continued to ease, reflecting the resolution of earlier global supply chain disruptions and a moderation in domestic demand for goods.
“Services price inflation, however, declined at a more gradual pace in line with the RBA’s earlier forecasts and remains high. This is consistent with continuing excess demand in the economy and strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs.”
Despite positive signs, the board maintained that the outlook is still ‘highly uncertain’ and indicated a desire to tread carefully over the coming months to achieve the board’s desired 2-3 percent inflation target by 2025.
Inflation remained ‘sticky’ for much of 2023, with the RBA announcing 13 rate rises in just over 12 months to try to drive it down to more acceptable levels. Today’s decision offers a reprieve to mortgage holders and reflects the board’s interest in directing inflation down over the longer term.
“The Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range,” the board said. “To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.”
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Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected
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Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.
KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.
“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”
Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.
However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.
Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.
The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.
“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”
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