Cash rate remains steady as RBA exercises caution

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the cash rate on hold at its first meeting for 2024, as it takes a cautious approach to last week’s news on inflation.

In a statement released earlier today, the board said rates would remain at 4.35 percent with the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 percent.

The announcement was widely expected, with most economists pointing to September as the likely date for a fall in rates to start. This is despite inflation slowing to 4.1 percent in December, a greater than expected drop.

“Inflation continued to ease in the December quarter,” the RBA Board said in a statement. “Despite this progress, inflation remains high at 4.1 percent. Goods price inflation was lower than the RBA’s November forecasts. It has continued to ease, reflecting the resolution of earlier global supply chain disruptions and a moderation in domestic demand for goods.

“Services price inflation, however, declined at a more gradual pace in line with the RBA’s earlier forecasts and remains high. This is consistent with continuing excess demand in the economy and strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs.”

Despite positive signs, the board maintained that the outlook is still ‘highly uncertain’ and indicated a desire to tread carefully over the coming months to achieve the board’s desired 2-3 percent inflation target by 2025.

Inflation remained ‘sticky’ for much of 2023, with the RBA announcing 13 rate rises in just over 12 months to try to drive it down to more acceptable levels. Today’s decision offers a reprieve to mortgage holders and reflects the board’s interest in directing inflation down over the longer term.

“The Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range,” the board said. “To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.”

Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.

Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.

“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.

CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.

Sydney

Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.

Melbourne

Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.

Brisbane

Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.

Adelaide

Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.

Perth

Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.

Hobart

Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.

Darwin

Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.

Canberra

Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.

Cash rate remains steady as RBA exercises caution

While payments have not increased, mortgage holders may be waiting a while yet before seeing a drop in rates

New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal