Cash rate remains steady as RBA exercises caution
While payments have not increased, mortgage holders may be waiting a while yet before seeing a drop in rates
2 min
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the cash rate on hold at its first meeting for 2024, as it takes a cautious approach to last week’s news on inflation.
In a statement released earlier today, the board said rates would remain at 4.35 percent with the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 percent.
The announcement was widely expected, with most economists pointing to September as the likely date for a fall in rates to start. This is despite inflation slowing to 4.1 percent in December, a greater than expected drop.
“Inflation continued to ease in the December quarter,” the RBA Board said in a statement. “Despite this progress, inflation remains high at 4.1 percent. Goods price inflation was lower than the RBA’s November forecasts. It has continued to ease, reflecting the resolution of earlier global supply chain disruptions and a moderation in domestic demand for goods.
“Services price inflation, however, declined at a more gradual pace in line with the RBA’s earlier forecasts and remains high. This is consistent with continuing excess demand in the economy and strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs.”
Despite positive signs, the board maintained that the outlook is still ‘highly uncertain’ and indicated a desire to tread carefully over the coming months to achieve the board’s desired 2-3 percent inflation target by 2025.
Inflation remained ‘sticky’ for much of 2023, with the RBA announcing 13 rate rises in just over 12 months to try to drive it down to more acceptable levels. Today’s decision offers a reprieve to mortgage holders and reflects the board’s interest in directing inflation down over the longer term.
“The Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range,” the board said. “To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.”
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Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market. The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index. …
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2 minAustralian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market.
The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index.
Energy was the notable exception, gaining more than one per cent as Brent crude traded above US$103 a barrel. Oil had moved higher amid uncertainty surrounding potential US diesel-export restrictions and broader geopolitical supply risks. The move supported energy producers but renewed concern about inflation inputs across transport and the wider economy.
Gold shares were weak even as spot bullion remained historically elevated. The All Ordinaries Gold index fell about 2.25 per cent, showing that equity performance can diverge from the commodity because of valuation, currency, operating and company-specific factors.
Zip was a prominent loser, falling 11.38 per cent after the company reported short sales after the previous close. Nine Entertainment also weakened after UBS analysts warned of near-term revenue challenges associated with its advertising-supported subscription tier.
Premier Investments led larger winners despite caution about the retail environment. Breville, in which Premier owns a significant stake, also appeared among leading movers. In the broader ASX 300 screen, Myer gained 11.43 per cent and MAAS Group rose 7.93 per cent, while Lotus Resources fell 10.53 per cent. These percentage moves should be checked against company announcements and trading liquidity before attributing causes.
The Australian dollar was broadly flat at US70.38 cents. Spot gold was around US$4,280 an ounce, Brent crude approximately US$103.08 a barrel and iron ore near US$96.90 a tonne late in the session.
The rate outlook remains the central domestic catalyst. Labour-market weakness has not eliminated the possibility of an RBA increase next week, leaving banks, listed property and other rate-sensitive sectors exposed to changing expectations.
Market dashboard
S&P/ASX 200: 8,702, down 0.72 per cent.
All Ordinaries: 8,897, down 0.66 per cent.
Best sector: Energy, up more than one per cent.
Weakest areas: Real estate and materials were the major drags; confirm final sector percentages before publication.
Material winner: Premier Investments led the large-company gainers. Confirm its final closing move from the ASX before publication.
Material loser: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.
ASX 300 percentage leader: Myer, up 11.43 per cent.
ASX 300 percentage laggard: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.
AUD/USD: Approximately US$0.7038, broadly flat.
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