CBA: Household Spending Intentions To Fall
The bank is seeing a post-COVID normalisation of consumer spending patterns.
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The CommBank Household Spending Intentions Index fell by 3.8% in April after reaching record-high levels in March.
The dip comes as Australians pull back on home buying, health and fitness, and transport spending while opting to put their hard-earned towards travel, entertainment and retail sectors.
The biggest drop came in home buying, with spending falling 21.5% after gains in February and March and is 13.1% lower than in April last year.
Further falls were seen in the health and fitness sectors, dropping 14% however spending is still up 2.9% on last year. Transport spending fell by 8.6% due to the reduction in the petrol excise but remain 13.5% up on the last year.
With international borders reopened, travel spending reached a new record high in April – exceeding its pre-COVID peak by gaining 10.6% during the month and 41% on April 2021.
Local households are spending more on entertainment, rising 6% in April led by increased activity in concerts and theatres alongside eating and drinking out, yet remains 1.8% down on last year.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia Senior Economist, Belinda Allen, said the seasonal volatility of April data due to additional public holidays meant that year on year movements better reflected the state of the economy,
“With an interest rate hiking cycle now underway the Australian economy is in a strong position. We are seeing a post COVID normalisation of consumer spending patterns, with lower spending on categories that increased during lockdowns like health & fitness, while higher travel and entertainment spending reflects more people being out and about,” said Ms Allen.
“Households have accrued a very high level of savings during COVID, the labour market remains tight and wages growth is accelerating. These factors will assist families with higher mortgage repayments over coming months,” Ms Allen said.
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New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal
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Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.
Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.
“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.
CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.
Sydney
Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.
Brisbane
Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.
Adelaide
Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.
Perth
Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.
Hobart
Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.
Darwin
Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.
Canberra
Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.
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