Copper and uranium prices rise as world seeks a low emissions future

The Department of Industry and Resources has released its official five-year forecasts for commodity prices, with the iron ore price expected to trade more than 25 percent lower than where it is today in FY29. Meantime, copper, nickel and uranium prices are expected to rise materially as the world decarbonises and embraces greater electrification and nuclear energy.

Mining stocks comprise a huge proportion of the ASX, and commodity prices directly affect share prices and company earnings. Therefore, these official price forecasts can provide valuable insights for shareholders of major miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Mineral Resources and South32.

Australian resource and energy export earnings are forecast to be $417 billion in FY24. This is about 10 percent lower than the record $466 billion in exports last year. Those record exports were largely the result of a spike in energy prices as Western countries sought to avoid Russian oil and gas. Export earnings are expected to fall to about $369 billion in FY25 due to falling commodity prices, primarily energy prices, and a rising AU/US dollar. Exports would then level out through to FY29.

Iron ore is expected to remain Australia’s biggest earner among all our resource and energy exports, followed by liquified natural gas (LNG), other metals, metallurgical coal, thermal coal, base metals, and gold. The iron ore price closed 1.5 percent higher overnight at US$104 per tonne. It’s fallen 10.5 percent over the past month due to weaker Chinese demand. The department is forecasting an average price of US$103 per tonne in FY24. By FY29, the average is expected to have fallen to US$75 per tonne.

LNG prices are expected to fall from an average of AU$17 per gigajoule this financial year to AU$12 per gigajoule in FY29. Metallurgical coal will fall from US$289 per tonne in FY24 to US$207 per tonne in FY29. Thermal coal will drop from US$135 per tonne in FY24 to US$115 per tonne in FY29.

The oversupply of lithium seen last year as global production ramped up while demand fell amid fewer people buying electric vehicles (EVs) is set to continue to weaken lithium commodity prices. Some Australian lithium miners, such as IGO and Core Lithium, have suspended some of their operations after lithium prices plummeted in 2023. The department expects an average price of US$1,800 per tonne this year, falling to an average of US$1,231 per tonne in FY29.

Some particular metals are expected to soar in value due to the green energy transition. The average price of copper, which is essential for electrification and used in solar panels, wind turbines and EVs, is expected to be about US$8,258 per tonne this financial year. By FY29, the department expects copper to be trading above US$10,000 per tonne.

The nickel price has fallen dramatically in recent times, largely due to much new supply generated in Indonesia by Chinese-backed operators. The nickel price has dropped from an average price of US$23,911 in FY23 to US$16,845 today. The Federal Government recently added nickel to its Critical Minerals List to give Australian producers access to funding for support. The resources department expects the nickel price to recover somewhat to an average price of US$20,950 in FY29.

Another commodity expected to rise significantly in value over the outlook period is uranium. Many countries are embracing nuclear energy and building small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) to support domestic energy needs. The uranium price leapt from an average US$51 per pound in FY23 to a 16-year high of US$106 per pound in February. The department anticipates an average price of US$85 per pound for FY24, rising to US$119 per pound in FY29.

“While global prices are easing, the [forecast] shows demand is likely to be sustained for commodities used in low emissions technologies, including iron ore, copper, aluminium and lithium,” said Resources Minister Madeleine King. The department noted that Chinese demand will continue to heavily influence commodity prices, however, India is now experiencing the world’s strongest economic growth and its expanding manufacturing sector will mean higher demand for resources.

Social media personality Supercar Blondie, a London-based Australian whose real name is Alex Hirschi, found her niche posting automotive eyecandy for eager viewers rather accidentally.

“I started out as a journalist, and I just fell into cars through my radio show,” says Hirschi.

For someone who “fell into” cars, they’ve certainly been good to her—the Supercar Blondie network of social channels that includes Supercarblondie.com has 110 million subscribers, including 18.4 million on YouTube and 56 million on Facebook. The content has 2 billion views per month, according to the company.

Alex and Nik Hirschi, the Supercar Blondie couple, in Las Vegas.
Jim Motavalli photo

Hirschi, whose first car was a lowly Mitsubishi Lancer, produces the Supercar Blondie content with her husband, Nik Hirschi, who is Swiss. The radio show was on the Arabian Radio Network in Dubai from 2012 to 2017. Dubai is full of supercars, and Hirschi, then known as “Radio Blondie,” said it was a natural fit to drive some of them—Bentleys, McLarens, Ferraris—for on-air features. The independent Supercar Blondie content creation company was launched in Dubai (where Nik Hirschi worked at Bloomberg, Barclays, and Thomson Reuters) in 2017 and has been growing ever since.

“I just loved supercars, and what started out as a hobby after I was loaned a Bentley Flying Spur to drive around Dubai eventually got more serious,” Alex Hirschi says. “We started filming my encounters with cars and uploading the video to our channel.” These days the couple travels 300 days a year; Penta first caught up with them at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas .

The Tyde Icon electric hydrofoil uses BMW batteries.
SBX Cars Photo

And now SB Media Group, based in London with 65 employees, Nik as CEO and Alex as the co-founder and on-air talent, is going into the auto auction business. SBX Cars, based in California, launched this week. The inaugural inventory goes beyond cars, and includes an electric Tyde hydrofoil yacht designed by BMW. There’s also a no-reserve Tesla Cybertruck, a one-of-nine Lamborghini Veneno Roadster, and a one-of-three Lamborghini Veneno Coupe. Likely attracting attention will be the first public auctions of the Mercedes-AMG One and the Hyperion XP-1 hydrogen-powered prototype. There were three LaFerrari prototypes, and one will be auctioned by SBX Cars.

A collection of John Player Special Lotus F1 racing cars will also be auctioned, as well as Lotus transporters, and founder Colin Chapman’s personal plane and some vehicles from his garage. Other high-dollar items include a Mercedes 300SL “Gullwing,” a Lamborghini Miura, a BMW 507, and an Aston Martin DB5. The estimated valuation of the auction lots consigned is US$100 million.

The Mercedes-AMG One was limited to 275 units.
SBX Cars Photo

The auctions will be online, but there could be some in-person events in the future. “We’re going to be the only digital auction site that focuses on the high end,” Nik Hirschi says. “We will focus on cars that are super-cool, with many that are one-of-a-kind, and we’re going to be attracting collectors from all over the world. Every car will be represented on the site with 200 photographs, taken by our global network.” Video will also be available.

SBX Cars says it will speed up the process for consignors, with just a few weeks until their cars become available on the site. Once up, the vehicles will remain available for one to two weeks. SBX Cars Auction Director Lance Butler, a Bonhams veteran, said in a statement that the auction “introduces our clients to a far easier buying and selling process, all while accessing one of the world’s largest global audiences by way of Supercar Blondie.”

The prototype Hyperion XP-1.
SBX Cars Photo

Mercedes 300SLs, Aston Martin DB5s, and BMW 507s are frequently auctioned around the globe, but SBX features some true exotics.

Copper and uranium prices rise as world seeks a low emissions future

The 5-year official forecasts for commodity prices reveal some surprising winners and losers