Copper and uranium prices rise as world seeks a low emissions future
The 5-year official forecasts for commodity prices reveal some surprising winners and losers
3 min
The Department of Industry and Resources has released its official five-year forecasts for commodity prices, with the iron ore price expected to trade more than 25 percent lower than where it is today in FY29. Meantime, copper, nickel and uranium prices are expected to rise materially as the world decarbonises and embraces greater electrification and nuclear energy.
Mining stocks comprise a huge proportion of the ASX, and commodity prices directly affect share prices and company earnings. Therefore, these official price forecasts can provide valuable insights for shareholders of major miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Mineral Resources and South32.
Australian resource and energy export earnings are forecast to be $417 billion in FY24. This is about 10 percent lower than the record $466 billion in exports last year. Those record exports were largely the result of a spike in energy prices as Western countries sought to avoid Russian oil and gas. Export earnings are expected to fall to about $369 billion in FY25 due to falling commodity prices, primarily energy prices, and a rising AU/US dollar. Exports would then level out through to FY29.
Iron ore is expected to remain Australia’s biggest earner among all our resource and energy exports, followed by liquified natural gas (LNG), other metals, metallurgical coal, thermal coal, base metals, and gold. The iron ore price closed 1.5 percent higher overnight at US$104 per tonne. It’s fallen 10.5 percent over the past month due to weaker Chinese demand. The department is forecasting an average price of US$103 per tonne in FY24. By FY29, the average is expected to have fallen to US$75 per tonne.
LNG prices are expected to fall from an average of AU$17 per gigajoule this financial year to AU$12 per gigajoule in FY29. Metallurgical coal will fall from US$289 per tonne in FY24 to US$207 per tonne in FY29. Thermal coal will drop from US$135 per tonne in FY24 to US$115 per tonne in FY29.
The oversupply of lithium seen last year as global production ramped up while demand fell amid fewer people buying electric vehicles (EVs) is set to continue to weaken lithium commodity prices. Some Australian lithium miners, such as IGO and Core Lithium, have suspended some of their operations after lithium prices plummeted in 2023. The department expects an average price of US$1,800 per tonne this year, falling to an average of US$1,231 per tonne in FY29.
Some particular metals are expected to soar in value due to the green energy transition. The average price of copper, which is essential for electrification and used in solar panels, wind turbines and EVs, is expected to be about US$8,258 per tonne this financial year. By FY29, the department expects copper to be trading above US$10,000 per tonne.
The nickel price has fallen dramatically in recent times, largely due to much new supply generated in Indonesia by Chinese-backed operators. The nickel price has dropped from an average price of US$23,911 in FY23 to US$16,845 today. The Federal Government recently added nickel to its Critical Minerals List to give Australian producers access to funding for support. The resources department expects the nickel price to recover somewhat to an average price of US$20,950 in FY29.
Another commodity expected to rise significantly in value over the outlook period is uranium. Many countries are embracing nuclear energy and building small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) to support domestic energy needs. The uranium price leapt from an average US$51 per pound in FY23 to a 16-year high of US$106 per pound in February. The department anticipates an average price of US$85 per pound for FY24, rising to US$119 per pound in FY29.
“While global prices are easing, the [forecast] shows demand is likely to be sustained for commodities used in low emissions technologies, including iron ore, copper, aluminium and lithium,” said Resources Minister Madeleine King. The department noted that Chinese demand will continue to heavily influence commodity prices, however, India is now experiencing the world’s strongest economic growth and its expanding manufacturing sector will mean higher demand for resources.
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The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.
The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.
2 minThe boom in casual footware ushered in by the pandemic has ended, a potential problem for companies such as Adidas that benefited from the shift to less formal clothing, Bank of America says.
The casual footwear business has been on the ropes since mid-2023 as people began returning to office.
Analyst Thierry Cota wrote that while most downcycles have lasted one to two years over the past two decades or so, the current one is different.
It “shows no sign of abating” and there is “no turning point in sight,” he said.
Adidas and Nike alone account for almost 60% of revenue in the casual footwear industry, Cota estimated, so the sector’s slower growth could be especially painful for them as opposed to brands that have a stronger performance-shoe segment. Adidas may just have it worse than Nike.
Cota downgraded Adidas stock to Underperform from Buy on Tuesday and slashed his target for the stock price to €160 (about $187) from €213. He doesn’t have a rating for Nike stock.
Shares of Adidas listed on the German stock exchange fell 4.5% Tuesday to €162.25. Nike stock was down 1.2%.
Adidas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Cota sees trouble for Adidas both in the short and long term.
Adidas’ lifestyle segment, which includes the Gazelles and Sambas brands, has been one of the company’s fastest-growing business, but there are signs growth is waning.
Lifestyle sales increased at a 10% annual pace in Adidas’ third quarter, down from 13% in the second quarter.
The analyst now predicts Adidas’ organic sales will grow by a 5% annual rate starting in 2027, down from his prior forecast of 7.5%.
The slower revenue growth will likewise weigh on profitability, Cota said, predicting that margins on earnings before interest and taxes will decline back toward the company’s long-term average after several quarters of outperforming. That could result in a cut to earnings per share.
Adidas stock had a rough 2025. Shares shed 33% in the past 12 months, weighed down by investor concerns over how tariffs, slowing demand, and increased competition would affect revenue growth.
Nike stock fell 9% throughout the period, reflecting both the company’s struggles with demand and optimism over a turnaround plan CEO Elliott Hill rolled out in late 2024.
Investors’ confidence has faded following Nike’s December earnings report, which suggested that a sustained recovery is still several quarters away. Just how many remains anyone’s guess.
But if Adidas’ challenges continue, as Cota believes they will, it could open up some space for Nike to claw back any market share it lost to its rival.
Investors should keep in mind, however, that the field has grown increasingly crowded in the past five years. Upstarts such as On Holding and Hoka also present a formidable challenge to the sector’s legacy brands.
Shares of On and Deckers Outdoor , Hoka’s parent company, fell 11% and 48%, respectively, in 2025, but analysts are upbeat about both companies’ fundamentals as the new year begins.
The battle of the sneakers is just getting started.
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