Could a ‘Carbon Coin’ Save the Planet?
Australian civil engineer Delton Chen explains his idea for a new currency.
Australian civil engineer Delton Chen explains his idea for a new currency.
In “The Ministry for the Future,” the 2020 climate-catastrophe novel by Kim Stanley Robinson, a new financial tool helps pull the world back from the edge of a global ecological meltdown: the carbon coin.
Backed by the world’s central banks, this new currency is deployed around the globe to pay fossil-fuel companies and petrostates to leave their reserves in the ground. It’s also used to reward businesses and individuals for sequestering carbon. By the end of Mr. Robinson’s book, the global economy is largely run on carbon coins, with projects around the world rapidly drawing carbon out of the atmosphere.
Mr. Robinson didn’t cook up the carbon-coin idea out of thin air. It’s the brainchild of Australian civil engineer Delton Chen. He’s the founder of the Global Carbon Reward initiative, which aims to create financial incentives to drive down carbon emissions.
While ambitious, the carbon-coin scheme remains far from seeing the light of day and would face fierce opposition from both the political and financial realms. In Mr. Robinson’s book, for instance, U.S. Federal Reserve officials express fears that the carbon coin could threaten the stability of the dollar, the world’s reserve currency.
Mr. Chen said that shouldn’t be a problem as the carbon currency, as he envisions it, couldn’t be used as a medium of exchange.
We recently caught up with Mr. Chen to ask him how it would work.
The carbon currency is a new kind of carrot, and it’s the tool for what’s called a global carbon reward. It’s different from other carbon-pricing systems that economists have recommended. A “reward” is different from a typical subsidy, because the value of the reward will be managed with monetary policies [controlled by central banks]. Subsidies are managed with fiscal policies.
The great advantage of shifting to a monetary policy is that it has the potential to resolve a wide collection of very nasty socioeconomic problems, including the climate finance gap and the current lack of international cooperation.
From the perspective of businesses, the carbon currency will be a debt-free revenue source with a predictable value, but it will also require that each business that wants to earn the carbon currency must accept a long-term service-level agreement. The service-level agreement will ensure that one unit of the carbon currency is issued for one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent that has been mitigated for the long-term, such as a 100-year duration.
A very important distinction is that the carbon currency will not create any direct costs for governments, businesses or citizens. The costs will be covered by a globally coordinated central-bank guarantee. This guarantee will trigger private currency trading and investing in the carbon currency.
First, by producing cleaner energy commodities. Second, by developing cleaner business models. Third, by removing carbon from the atmosphere.
The reward rules will be designed to encourage large energy companies and state-owned enterprises to decarbonize at the maximum rate that is technically feasible, and well ahead of the market demand for new clean energy.
One hypothetical example is a multinational energy company that decides to implement a comprehensive plan to switch to 100% renewable energy production and to retire its fossil energy reserves—for earning the reward.
Reward rules can be developed for all sectors, including for small and medium-size businesses, and households—as long as the mitigation outcome is significant.
A hypothetical example might be a farm that transitions from animal meat production to producing vegetarian meat substitutes. The farm might combine agroforestry with soil carbon sequestration. If it is a community farm, especially in a developing country, then there are opportunities to provide co-benefits for communities and ecosystems.
Another avenue for earning the carbon currency is through lowering the carbon footprint of households.
Ideally, the value of the carbon currency will be calibrated to explicitly meet the Paris goals. In this way, the carbon currency can accelerate and guide the transition to global net-zero. Indeed, the carbon currency should become a permanent feature of the world economy.
There are two inherent limitations of existing pledges made by companies and countries. The first problem is that these pledges might not be backed by actionable plans and financial capital. The second problem is that for the companies and countries that set themselves very ambitious pledges, their motivation to reach those targets is compromised by other companies and countries that are continuing to benefit from the consumption of fossil fuels. This is sometimes described as the prisoner’s dilemma.
I don’t see any significant downside. The new theory is posing a direct challenge to the standard theory for externalized costs. By proposing an explicit reward price for mitigated carbon, I’m asking economists to revise their conceptualization of the market failure. In other words, I’m proposing that a reward price—backed by central banks—is needed to address the systemic risk. The new policy is also more complex than standard policies, such as carbon taxes. It will require a more sophisticated approach to carbon accounting and monetary policy.
The main hurdle for advancing this policy is simply to find financial sponsorship to undertake the economic analysis and to complete a carbon-currency demonstration. When the policy is eventually examined by governments, I think many people will sit up and take notice because we are facing major systemic risks and we need a globally coordinated response.
I became curious about carbon pricing in late 2013. Back then I viewed the carbon-currency idea as having several useful attributes, but at that time I had no training in economics. So not surprising that it took me nearly eight years to develop the Global Carbon Reward policy. My goal was—and still is—to resolve every conundrum in climate-change economics with an interdisciplinary theory that’s compatible with neoclassical economics. I’m looking for a theory that’s consistent with sociology, ecology, biology, chemistry and physics. I think that I may have cracked this problem.
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New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal
Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.
Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.
“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.
CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.
Sydney
Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.
Brisbane
Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.
Adelaide
Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.
Perth
Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.
Hobart
Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.
Darwin
Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.
Canberra
Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.
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