China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus
Home prices declined at a faster pace in May in major cities, while other data show a mixed picture for the world’s second-largest economy
Home prices declined at a faster pace in May in major cities, while other data show a mixed picture for the world’s second-largest economy
China’s broken housing market isn’t responding to some of the country’s boldest stimulus measures to date—at least not yet.
The Chinese government has been stepping up support for housing and other industries in recent months as it tries to revitalise an economy that has continued to disappoint since the early days of the pandemic.
But fresh data for May showed that businesses and consumers remain cautious. Home prices continue to fall at an accelerating rate, and fixed-asset investment and industrial production, while growing, lost some momentum.
“China’s May economic data suggest that policymakers have a lot to do to sustain the fragile recovery,” Yao Wei, chief China economist at Société Générale, wrote in a client note on Monday.
The worst pain is in the property sector, which has been struggling to deal with oversupply and weak buyer sentiment since 2021, when a multiyear housing boom ended . The market still doesn’t appear to have found a floor, even after Beijing rolled out its most aggressive stimulus measures so far in mid-May in hopes of restoring confidence.
In major cities, new-home prices fell 4.3% in May compared with a year earlier, worse than a 3.5% decline in April, according to data released Monday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Prices in China’s secondhand home market tumbled 7.5%, compared with a 6.8% drop in April.
Home sales by value tumbled 30.5% in the first five months of this year compared with the same months last year.
“This data was certainly on the disappointing side and may ring some alarm bells, as May’s policy support package has not yet translated to a slower decline of housing prices, let alone a stabilisation,” said Lynn Song, chief China economist at ING.
Economists had also been hoping to see a wider recovery this month after Beijing started rolling out a planned issuance of 1 trillion yuan, the equivalent of $138 billion, in ultra-long sovereign bonds in May. The funds are designed to help pay for infrastructure and property projects backed by the authorities. Investors gobbled up the first batch of these bonds.
Monday’s bundle of economic data, however, underlined how the country still isn’t firing on all cylinders.
Retail sales, a key metric of consumer spending, rose 3.7% in May from a year earlier, compared with 2.3% in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. While the trend is heading in the right direction, it is still a relatively subdued level of growth, and below what most economists believe is needed to kick-start a major revival in consumer spending.
The expansion in industrial production—5.6% in May compared with a year earlier—was down from April’s 6.7% increase. Fixed-asset investment growth, of which 40% came from property and infrastructure sectors, also decelerated, to 3.5% year-over-year growth in May from 3.6% in April.
Key to the sluggish economic activity data in May—and China’s outlook going forward—is the crisis in the property market, which has proven hard for policymakers to address.
The property rescue package in May included letting local governments buy up unsold homes, removing minimum interest rates on mortgages, and reducing payments for potential home buyers. It also included as its centrepiece a $41 billion so-called re-lending program launched by the People’s Bank of China, which would provide funding to Chinese banks to support home purchases by state-owned firms.
The hope was that by stepping in as a buyer of last resort for millions of properties, the government would manage to mop up unsold housing inventory and persuade wary home buyers to re-enter the market. In turn, Chinese consumers, who have most of their wealth tied up in real estate, would feel more confident about spending again, thereby lifting the overall economy.
But the size of the re-lending program wasn’t big enough to convince home buyers, said Larry Hu , chief China economist at Macquarie Group. “Meanwhile, their income outlook also stays weak given the current economic condition,” he said.
For the property market to bottom out and reach a new equilibrium, mortgage rates, which stand at around 3-4% in China, need to be as low as rental yields, which are currently below 2% in major cities, said Zhaopeng Xing, a senior China strategist at ANZ. He said that a large mortgage rate cut will need to happen eventually.
The other key part of China’s push to revive growth revolves around the manufacturing sector, with leaders funnelling more investment into factories to boost output and reduce the country’s reliance on foreign suppliers of key technologies.
The result has been a surge in production. But with domestic consumption not strong enough to absorb all those goods, many factories have been forced to cut prices and seek out more overseas buyers.
Data released earlier this month showed that Chinese exports rose faster in May than the month before.
However, the export push is butting into resistance as governments around the world worry about the impact of cheap Chinese competition on domestic jobs and industries. The European Union last week said it would impose new import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, describing China’s auto industry as heavily subsidised by the government, to the point where other countries’ automakers can’t fairly compete.
The U.S. has also hit Chinese cars and some other products with hefty duties, while countries including Brazil, India and Turkey have opened antidumping investigations into Chinese steel, chemicals and other goods.
Beijing says such moves are protectionist and that its industries compete fairly with global rivals.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
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Amrish Maharaj undid a century of hodgepodge alterations while navigating strict conservation rules
Haberfield, a charming slice of suburbia in what locals call Sydney’s “inner west” region, is miles from the landmarks like the Harbour Bridge and the Opera House, and isn’t famous for multimillion-dollar waterfront mansions. What it is known for, however, is fiercely protecting its architectural identity.
After an uproar in the 1970s led by local residents—who were fed up with period homes getting unsympathetic makeovers—the National Trust created the Haberfield heritage conservation area in the mid-1980s. As a result, the suburb of approximately 6,500 people has one of Sydney’s best-kept streetscapes.The heritage designation has been a win for preserving the past, but has created challenges for architects tasked with making Haberfield’s homes more family-friendly, sustainable and sellable.
Architect Amrish Maharaj was hired by his clients, owners Ramy and Sarah Azzam of ML Constructions, to modernise a single-storey Federation dwelling—an era of Australian architecture between approximately 1890 and 1915. Although its bones dated back to the turn of the last century, the Haberfield home, coined Glencoe, had already undergone a number of objectionable changes before conservation rules had come in. The design was stuck between two time periods.
“Its original roof and chimneys had been removed and replaced with a post-1943 hipped roof clad in terracotta tiles. The length of the house had been doubled with the addition of a substantial rear extension. A small skillion roof was put over the front veranda, metal balustrading and the front verandah detailing had also been amended, removing the original timber work,” Maharaj said.
“The previous work appeared to have focused on increasing the number of rooms, and not improving the spaces within,” he added. From the entry, a dark central hallway cut the house in half, splitting four bedrooms and a bathroom to the north from an additional bedroom, an enclosed lounge room, dining room and kitchen to the south.
Despite the patchwork of renovations and extensions over the years, planning regulations still remained strict for the team attempting to bring the residence into the 21st century.
“We had an initial concept, which was a little more modern than the end result, but the local council wanted a more traditional construction. We had a heritage expert come and look at the house and give their recommendations,” he said. “She determined that it was probably part of a group of three or four houses that were once the same beautifully detailed Federation-era homes. But somebody had come along in the 1940s and did their own thing.”
“There was a discussion about pulling off the roof and getting it back to what it was, but it came down to a question of budget. We tried to put back as much as we could, by replacing the front windows with traditional timber, we changed the front path and front fence just to give a little nod to what used to be, without stripping the render and reconstructing the whole roof.”
Now the street appeal of the home is a better fit with its Federation neighbours. The decision was then made to pull focus from the facade while investing attention, and funds, into the rear of the house.
“In keeping with what the Council was wanting, we used traditional materials and techniques in the construction of the back extension even though it does feel very modern,” Maharaj said.
As well as employing conventional methods for the external build of the large rear addition, a host of modern-day luxury finishes were used inside, where the interior design was overseen by owner Sarah Azzam.
High-traffic floors were finished with limestone tiles, Polytec joinery was used throughout, and internal walls feature a sleek white set render. Bathrooms feature Fibonacci Terrazzo tiles with underfloor heating.
A standout of the new look is the grand triangular gable crowning the rear indoor-to-outdoor living zone, a unique design feature in the neighbourhood of smaller sized blocks and heritage homes. The seamless flow to the backyard is an element that has become a must-have in modern Sydney homes thanks to the temperate climate.
“Our work began with the deconstructing and restructuring of the original home. Retaining four good-sized bedrooms to the front of the house, the central areas were dedicated to service spaces, with a big family bathroom, laundry, powder room and en-suite. The home then steps down to a large open-plan kitchen, dining and living room, which seamlessly connects to an al fresco dining area, garden, and a new pool and cabana,” Maharaj added.
“It’s such a Sydney thing, the seamless flow to the outdoors from the main living area. When I think about our briefs, from every single client, I’d say right at the top of everyone’s list is natural light, good ventilation and a connection to the garden,” he said. “Australians also love a north orientation.”
The Azzams, who declined to comment on the project, bought the unrenovated Haberfield house in 2020 for A$2.5 million (US$1.6 million), then sold the reimagined residence in 2023 for A$4.9 million.
“They bought it as their forever home. That large space at the back was created that way because they’ve got a big extended family,” Maharaj said. “They were often talking about Christmas dinners of 20 to 30 people, and space for a grand dining table was specifically on their list of requirements. Sarah has a great design eye and was meticulously hand selecting the finishes. But they ended up seeing another house nearby and decided to do it all again.”
Maharaj shared some more thoughts about the design and build process.
The biggest surprise was… I think we got lucky with the glass gable in the back of the house. We tried to do something similar on a house only a couple of streets away about a year later and it was completely knocked back by Council. When we pushed back to ask why, we were told it should never have been approved as is. Sometimes the approval process includes a bit of luck.
A favourite material we discovered during the process was… Of all the materials, I’d have to say that the Super White Dolomite and the limestone flooring we used were the big hits. We had quite a few potential buyers asking about these items in particular. We have received a number of calls from other homeowners in the area who are looking for a similar renovation, and even the odd call from people who have seen the home and wanted to express how much they loved it.
The most dramatic change was… When we start these jobs, we can often see that the houses have been either abandoned or people have just added and removed rooms and walls over time. So bringing that all back together was really fulfilling for me as an architect. Originally, this house felt like a cold hospital ward when you walked through it, with all these rooms coming off one corridor. Bringing it back to life and making it feel like a home with a heart is something we’re really proud of.
The total cost of the renovation… Being able to do the building himself, and their own interior design meant the pair could save some money, but they really spared no expense. It was a project that cost approximately A$1.5 million.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.