Economy grows by 0.2 percent in September quarter
Households rein in spending but government expenditure goes up as cost-of-living rebates kick in
2 min
Australian gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2 percent in the September quarter, taking the annual rate of economic growth to 2.1 percent, according to new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Katherine Keenan, ABS head of national accounts, said: “This was the eighth straight rise in quarterly GDP, but growth has slowed over 2023.”
Ms Kennan said the quarterly increase was due to a rise in government spending and investment while household spending remained flat. Government expenditure rose by 1.1 percent in the September quarter following an 0.6 percent rise in the June quarter.
“The growth in government expenditure was driven by social benefits to households, including the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates, and extra payments for childcare, aged care and pharmaceutical products,” she said. The energy rebates had a big impact. The ABS said electricity prices rose by 4.2 percent during the quarter. Without the rebates, they would have risen 18.6 percent.
The Federal Government also spent more on defence, funding international training exercises held in Australia during the quarter. “National and state public corporations increased their capital investment by 8.9 percent, with boosted investment in transport, communication and utilities projects,” Ms Keenan said.
Wages including superannuation rose by 2.6 percent due to an increase in the super guarantee rate from 10 percent to 10.5 percent and a bump in the minimum wage alongside low unemployment. The wage price index rose 1.3 percent, which was the fastest quarterly rise on record. More jobs had wage movement and the average change in wages was significantly higher. The unemployment rate in the month of September was 3.6 percent.
Inflation rose by 1.2 percent during the September quarter, with the biggest contributors being higher petrol prices, rents, new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers and electricity prices. Spending on fresh food fell 0.2 percent, alcohol purchases from bottle shops fell for the fifth consecutive quarter and gambling taxes fell 6.9 percent after a similar fall in the June quarter. Those who could afford it continued the post-COVID revenge travel trend. Travel services imports rose by 19.5 percent as more Australians headed overseas during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Travel exports grew 4.4 percent during the quarter due to the FIFA Women’s World Cup World Cup and a record level of international student enrolments.
Cost-of-living pressures fuelled by sticky inflation and high interest rates pushed the household saving-to-income ratio to its lowest level since 2007. The ratio fell for the eighth consecutive quarter, with Australians now only saving 1.1 percent of their incomes.
The impact of homeowners coming off fixed home loan rates was reflected in the 7.6 percent increase in interest paid by mortgagees over the quarter. The Reserve Bank did not raise the cash rate during the September quarter. Renters continued to do it tough, with rents now up 7.6 percent on an annual CPI basis, which is the largest annual increase since 2009. Australians also paid 7.6 percent more income tax due to the ending of the low and middle income tax offset.
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Technology and semiconductor shares fell sharply as investors questioned the debt financing the AI infrastructure boom and confronted higher rates and Chinese competition.
Technology and semiconductor shares fell sharply as investors questioned the debt financing the AI infrastructure boom and confronted higher rates and Chinese competition.
4 minA sharp technology sell-off has exposed a new anxiety on global markets: whether the enormous borrowing behind the artificial-intelligence infrastructure boom can generate sufficient returns as interest rates rise and Chinese competition intensifies.
The artificial-intelligence investment boom has powered technology shares, semiconductor manufacturers and data-centre operators to extraordinary heights. Last week, investors were given a reminder that much of this expansion is being built with borrowed money.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5 per cent over the week ended October 16, its weakest performance since late June. Semiconductor shares suffered an even deeper correction, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index losing about 11.4 per cent.
The selling spread quickly through global markets. Micron Technology fell 14.6 per cent over the week, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped approximately 18 per cent and 24 per cent respectively.
This was more than a routine bout of profit-taking. Investors were reassessing three interconnected risks: higher interest rates, the rapidly expanding debt burden attached to AI infrastructure and the prospect of stronger competition from Chinese memory-chip manufacturers.
The debt behind the AI build-out
Artificial intelligence requires a physical infrastructure network of enormous scale. Data centres must be built, advanced processors purchased, power supplies secured and cooling systems installed before customers begin generating meaningful revenue from them.
Technology companies are increasingly supplementing their own cash with corporate bonds, syndicated loans, equipment leases, private credit and project-level financing.
JPMorgan describes the emerging funding model as a combination of conventional corporate borrowing and project finance tied to individual data-centre assets. In Australia, the Reserve Bank estimates that syndicated loans accounted for approximately three-quarters of data-centre financing during 2025 and 2026 to date.
The numbers are becoming large enough to affect broader credit markets. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has cited Wall Street estimates suggesting AI-related investment-grade bond issuance could approach US$300 billion in 2026 alone.
That borrowing is not automatically problematic. Debt can be an efficient way to finance long-lived infrastructure when future revenue is sufficiently predictable. The concern is that AI technology, customer demand and computing economics are changing much faster than the repayment schedules attached to the assets.
A data centre financed today may carry debt for years. Investors must therefore make assumptions about future utilisation rates, electricity prices, chip performance, customer concentration and the amount businesses will ultimately pay for AI computing.
When interest rates rise, those assumptions become less forgiving.
Inflation changes the calculation
September’s US inflation data intensified the pressure. Consumer prices increased 3.7 per cent over the year, ahead of market expectations and up from 3.4 per cent in August.
The hotter reading reduced confidence that interest rates would fall quickly and pushed bond yields higher. That matters particularly for companies whose valuations depend on profits expected well into the future, as well as highly leveraged infrastructure operators that may need to refinance.
CoreWeave has emerged as a closely watched test case. The specialist cloud-computing company has accumulated substantial debt and lease obligations to build AI capacity, while relying on a concentrated group of large technology customers.
Its shares fell sharply during the sell-off, while the cost of insuring its debt against default climbed. CoreWeave has argued that its contracted backlog more than covers its obligations and that financial markets do not always understand its business model. Nevertheless, its securities have become a proxy for investor confidence in debt-funded AI infrastructure.
Oracle, another major investor in AI computing capacity, fell 8.8 per cent in Friday trading, while CoreWeave dropped 15.5 per cent.
The question is shifting from how much AI infrastructure can be built to how profitably it can be operated.
China adds another source of pressure
Interest rates were not the only catalyst. Reports of advances by Chinese memory-chip producer ChangXin Memory Technologies raised concerns that lower-cost Chinese products could increase competition across the global semiconductor industry.
Memory chips are essential to AI systems, but the industry is historically cyclical. Periods of tight supply and high pricing can encourage rapid investment, eventually producing oversupply and falling margins.
The prospect of a well-funded Chinese competitor expanding its technological capabilities unsettled investors in Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. It also demonstrated that AI-related demand does not insulate chipmakers from conventional competitive pressures.
That combination—slower rate cuts, more expensive financing and potentially cheaper supply—challenged the assumption that every company exposed to AI would enjoy continually expanding margins.
A reset rather than the end of the boom
The sell-off does not establish that the AI boom is ending. Demand for computing power remains strong, the largest technology companies continue to generate formidable cash flows and many infrastructure projects are backed by long-term customer contracts.
What has changed is the market’s willingness to overlook the price and financing structure of that growth.
The most resilient companies are likely to be those able to fund investment from operating cash flow, secure long-duration customers and demonstrate that new capacity will earn returns comfortably above its financing costs.
More speculative operators may face greater scrutiny, particularly where debt is expensive, customers are concentrated or expected revenue depends on demand that has not yet materialised.
For Australian investors, the lesson extends beyond US technology shares. Local data-centre operators, infrastructure funds, electricity suppliers and property groups are increasingly exposed to the same investment cycle.
Artificial intelligence may remain one of the defining growth themes of the decade. But last week’s correction showed that enthusiasm for the technology does not eliminate financial discipline.
The next stage of the AI boom will be judged not only by computing power, model performance or demand for chips, but by something more traditional: whether the assets being financed can generate enough cash to repay the money borrowed to build them.
Fact box
Nasdaq Composite: Down 4.5 per cent for the week ended October 16, 2026
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: Down approximately 11.4 per cent
Micron Technology: Down approximately 14.6 per cent
Samsung Electronics: Down approximately 18 per cent
SK Hynix: Down approximately 24 per cent
US September inflation: 3.7 per cent annually
Estimated 2026 AI-related investment-grade issuance: Approximately US$300 billion
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