Economy grows by 0.2 percent in September quarter
Households rein in spending but government expenditure goes up as cost-of-living rebates kick in
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Australian gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2 percent in the September quarter, taking the annual rate of economic growth to 2.1 percent, according to new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Katherine Keenan, ABS head of national accounts, said: “This was the eighth straight rise in quarterly GDP, but growth has slowed over 2023.”
Ms Kennan said the quarterly increase was due to a rise in government spending and investment while household spending remained flat. Government expenditure rose by 1.1 percent in the September quarter following an 0.6 percent rise in the June quarter.
“The growth in government expenditure was driven by social benefits to households, including the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates, and extra payments for childcare, aged care and pharmaceutical products,” she said. The energy rebates had a big impact. The ABS said electricity prices rose by 4.2 percent during the quarter. Without the rebates, they would have risen 18.6 percent.
The Federal Government also spent more on defence, funding international training exercises held in Australia during the quarter. “National and state public corporations increased their capital investment by 8.9 percent, with boosted investment in transport, communication and utilities projects,” Ms Keenan said.
Wages including superannuation rose by 2.6 percent due to an increase in the super guarantee rate from 10 percent to 10.5 percent and a bump in the minimum wage alongside low unemployment. The wage price index rose 1.3 percent, which was the fastest quarterly rise on record. More jobs had wage movement and the average change in wages was significantly higher. The unemployment rate in the month of September was 3.6 percent.
Inflation rose by 1.2 percent during the September quarter, with the biggest contributors being higher petrol prices, rents, new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers and electricity prices. Spending on fresh food fell 0.2 percent, alcohol purchases from bottle shops fell for the fifth consecutive quarter and gambling taxes fell 6.9 percent after a similar fall in the June quarter. Those who could afford it continued the post-COVID revenge travel trend. Travel services imports rose by 19.5 percent as more Australians headed overseas during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Travel exports grew 4.4 percent during the quarter due to the FIFA Women’s World Cup World Cup and a record level of international student enrolments.
Cost-of-living pressures fuelled by sticky inflation and high interest rates pushed the household saving-to-income ratio to its lowest level since 2007. The ratio fell for the eighth consecutive quarter, with Australians now only saving 1.1 percent of their incomes.
The impact of homeowners coming off fixed home loan rates was reflected in the 7.6 percent increase in interest paid by mortgagees over the quarter. The Reserve Bank did not raise the cash rate during the September quarter. Renters continued to do it tough, with rents now up 7.6 percent on an annual CPI basis, which is the largest annual increase since 2009. Australians also paid 7.6 percent more income tax due to the ending of the low and middle income tax offset.
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Gold miners are emerging as a compelling way to navigate market uncertainty, with analysts pointing to strong cash flows, attractive valuations and rising profit margins. As gold prices stabilize above US$4,000 an ounce, mining stocks could offer investors both downside protection and long-term upside.
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Gold is one of the market’s go-to hedges in rocky times. Don’t forget that gold miners’ stocks are too.
The stock market’s gains in 2026 belie the rocky macroeconomic picture: elevated inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions, and jitters about the artificial-intelligence trade. That backdrop, in theory, should be the time for gold to shine. Instead, the price of the yellow metal has tumbled more than 5% so far, after last year’s blistering 65% rally. In part, the U.S. dollar’s recovery has stymied gold, which benefited from the greenback’s weakness in 2025.
Even with the precious metal’s recent weakness, gold mining stocks could be the best way to profit from this year’s uncertainty.
Gold miners “are a valuable hedge against macro risks that would likely be damaging for equities,” BCA Research’s Noah Weisberger and Rishabh Shah wrote this week.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next moves to tackle inflation, the increasingly crowded AI trade, and steep valuations for tech stocks are just some of the drivers that could help gold’s price get on even footing— and lead to even bigger gains for miner stocks.
These stocks’ prices tend to outpace gold’s moves, because the companies have fixed operational costs. So when gold’s price rallies, their profit margins soar, and vice versa. For instance, the VanEck Gold Miners GDX +7.39% exchange-traded fund has fallen 11% this year as the metal has slumped.
Now, gold’s price just needs to stabilize to help miners’ stocks take off, and that seems to be happening. The precious metal has recently found support above the $4,000 level, and has stuck in a narrow range since the end of June. But its price rose ever so slightly in July, ending a four-month losing streak for the metal. Technical analysis also suggests that gold is due for a comeback.
Barron’s recently wrote that the pullbacks for both gold miners and the metal itself are overdone. Senior technical analyst Doug Busch noted that the VanEck ETF is on the “verge of a breakout” and has the potential to hit $11o in early 2027, up more than 40% from its current price.
Gold miners also have more than their role as a market hedge going for them. Their fundamentals are solid, too, says Chris Mancini, portfolio co-manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.
“Precious metals miners are generating substantial amounts of free cash flow given profit margins of over $2,000 per ounce, and are returning this cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends,” he said in an email.
“Buying the miners is a cheap way to get exposure to the price of gold,” he added. His fund owns Newmont NEM +6.71%, a Barron’s stock pick last year, and Agnico Eagle Mines as top holdings, as well as miners Northern Star Resources, Endeavour Mining, and Kinross Gold K+8.59%.
Miners are better businesses than they used to be, the BCA team added.
“Capex is more disciplined, margins are high and rising…and they are largely independent of the AI story,” Weisberger, BCA’s head of equities, and Shah, a senior analyst, wrote.
That last part is key. AI is disrupting the software industry and many other services and information-oriented businesses, and investors have piled into AI stocks. But ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and other large-language models aren’t going to replace the need to mine for metals.
“Equity portfolios can benefit from exposure to quality that is uncorrelated to AI risk, and gold miners fit the bill,” the BCA team said.
They recommend that investors buy the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which owns top miners such as Agnico, Barrick Mining ABX +7.24%, and Newmont.
An important bonus for big gold miners’ stocks is that their valuations are attractive after the gold’s pullback, too. The VanEck ETF is now trading at just a little more than nine times next year’s earnings estimates. That’s a big discount to its five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 14, according to FactSet.
What’s more, the ETF is currently valued at a more than 50% discount to the S&P 500 SPX -0.17%, which is trading for about 19 times earnings estimates for 2027. Mining stocks have typically traded at just a 25% discount to the broader market over the past five years. So there is significant upside for the group if valuations move back toward normal levels.
One factor that complicates mining stocks as a market hedge, of course, is if stocks bounce back, which has been the case so far in August.
But both the market and economic outlooks remain cloudy, and investors remain nervous about the Fed’s next moves and AI stocks. Gold miners should do just fine, even if the anxious mood on Wall Street persists.
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