Global Luxury Spending Could Decline Due To The Ukraine War

Nearly one month after Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, the conflict’s impact on global businesses has spread to luxury industries.

Most high-fashion brands, including LVMH Group, Burberry, and Kering, closed their stores in Russia earlier this month, while announcing their donations to international humanitarian efforts in Ukraine.

How the Russia-Ukraine conflict will eventually affect the global luxury industry will depend on how long it lasts, experts say.

“We see a more likely, immediate, and relevant impact on Russians personal luxury spending locally, strongly driven by local currency devaluation and restrictions in place,” says Claudia D’Arpizio, senior partner and global head of fashion and luxury at Bain & Co., a Boston-headquartered management consulting firm.

Russian luxury customers account for approximately 2%-3%, or about €7 billion (AU$10.28 million) of the total global luxury goods market, she says.

The war will also likely damp consumer confidence in European countries and North America because of increases in energy prices, stock market volatility, the interruption to tourism, and other economic uncertainties, says Federica Levato, a partner at Bain and leader of its luxury practice in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

“Upon persistence of the crisis, financial stability could be also affected, particularly generating higher stock market volatility. American consumer confidence could potentially decline and eventually also their luxury spending,” she says.

Since Russia’s invasion, more than 19,000 have been killed, 10 million people have been displaced, and more than AU$119 billion in property has been damaged.

Near-term, the luxury brands have taken an economic hit from their decision to close stores in Russia.

In early March, LVMH temporarily closed its 124 stores in Russia. Other fashion houses—including France’s Kering, Chanel, Hermes International, Swiss group Richemont,, and Italy’s Prada—all announced that they had suspended their operations in Russia through their social media accounts.

However, it is unlikely that the luxury brands will stop doing business in Russia, says Kate Newlin, a principal of New York-based Kate Newlin Consulting.

“When you think about luxury, you think of Russian oligarchs as a major segment of customer,” Newlin says. “It will be a larger bet for LVMH to walk away than, for example, McDonald’s.”

LVMH did not respond to a request for comment. The conglomerate, which owns brands such as Dior, Fendi, and Louis Vuitton, donated €5 million to the International Committee of the Red Cross to help those affected by the war in Ukraine in early March.

British fashion house Burberry declined to comment on the war’s impact on its business. On March 11, it donated to two more organizations, Save the Children, and UNICEF, in support of their Ukraine humanitarian appeals, following an earlier donation to the British Red Cross Ukraine Crisis Appeal.

Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.

Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.

“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.

CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.

Sydney

Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.

Melbourne

Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.

Brisbane

Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.

Adelaide

Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.

Perth

Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.

Hobart

Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.

Darwin

Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.

Canberra

Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.

Global Luxury Spending Could Decline Due To The Ukraine War

The conflict’s impact on global businesses has spread to luxury industries.

New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal