Global Luxury Spending Could Decline Due To The Ukraine War

Nearly one month after Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, the conflict’s impact on global businesses has spread to luxury industries.

Most high-fashion brands, including LVMH Group, Burberry, and Kering, closed their stores in Russia earlier this month, while announcing their donations to international humanitarian efforts in Ukraine.

How the Russia-Ukraine conflict will eventually affect the global luxury industry will depend on how long it lasts, experts say.

“We see a more likely, immediate, and relevant impact on Russians personal luxury spending locally, strongly driven by local currency devaluation and restrictions in place,” says Claudia D’Arpizio, senior partner and global head of fashion and luxury at Bain & Co., a Boston-headquartered management consulting firm.

Russian luxury customers account for approximately 2%-3%, or about €7 billion (AU$10.28 million) of the total global luxury goods market, she says.

The war will also likely damp consumer confidence in European countries and North America because of increases in energy prices, stock market volatility, the interruption to tourism, and other economic uncertainties, says Federica Levato, a partner at Bain and leader of its luxury practice in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

“Upon persistence of the crisis, financial stability could be also affected, particularly generating higher stock market volatility. American consumer confidence could potentially decline and eventually also their luxury spending,” she says.

Since Russia’s invasion, more than 19,000 have been killed, 10 million people have been displaced, and more than AU$119 billion in property has been damaged.

Near-term, the luxury brands have taken an economic hit from their decision to close stores in Russia.

In early March, LVMH temporarily closed its 124 stores in Russia. Other fashion houses—including France’s Kering, Chanel, Hermes International, Swiss group Richemont,, and Italy’s Prada—all announced that they had suspended their operations in Russia through their social media accounts.

However, it is unlikely that the luxury brands will stop doing business in Russia, says Kate Newlin, a principal of New York-based Kate Newlin Consulting.

“When you think about luxury, you think of Russian oligarchs as a major segment of customer,” Newlin says. “It will be a larger bet for LVMH to walk away than, for example, McDonald’s.”

LVMH did not respond to a request for comment. The conglomerate, which owns brands such as Dior, Fendi, and Louis Vuitton, donated €5 million to the International Committee of the Red Cross to help those affected by the war in Ukraine in early March.

British fashion house Burberry declined to comment on the war’s impact on its business. On March 11, it donated to two more organizations, Save the Children, and UNICEF, in support of their Ukraine humanitarian appeals, following an earlier donation to the British Red Cross Ukraine Crisis Appeal.

While golden visa schemes proliferate, Switzerland remains famously protective about buying property in the country.

Rules known as Lex Koller, introduced in 1983, prohibit foreigners from buying homes in cities like Geneva and Zurich. And in the few locations where foreigners can buy, purchase permits come with rules around size and occupancy.

But non-Swiss buyers who have coveted an Alpine home now have a pathway to ownership, and it’s likely to come with financial upside. The Swiss government has waived residency requirements in a handful of locations where developers have negotiated exemptions in exchange for billions of dollars of investment in construction and improvements.

Andermatt, a village 4,715 feet above sea level in the centre of the Swiss Alps, is the largest municipality to open up to foreign buyers.

Its main investor, Egyptian magnate Samih Sawiris, “believed Andermatt could become a full-town redevelopment when he first visited in 2005, but the key was to offer real estate to people outside of Switzerland,” said Russell Collins, chief commercial officer of Andermatt-Swiss Alps, Sawiris’s development company.

“We became the only large-scale real estate development in Switzerland with an exemption from the Lex Koller regulations.”

In the ensuing decades, Andermatt has become a major draw for high-net-worth buyers from around the world, said Alex Koch de Gooreynd, a partner at Knight Frank in London and head of its Swiss residential sales team.

“What the Andermatt-Swiss Alps guys have done is incredible,” he said. “It’s an impressive resort, and there is still a good 10 years’ worth of construction to come. The future of the resort is very good.”

Andermatt’s profile got another boost from the 2022 acquisition of its ski and resort operations by Vail Resorts, which runs 41 ski destinations worldwide.

“Vail has committed to 150 million Swiss francs (US$175 million) in investments, which is another game-changer,” de Gooreynd said.

“If you’d asked me about Andermatt 10 years ago, I would have said the ski areas weren’t good enough of a draw.”

Along with the five-star Chedi Andermatt hotel and residences, which opened in 2013, residential offerings include the Gotthard Residences at the Radisson Blu hotel; at least six branded residences are planned to open by 2030, according to Jeremy Rollason, director for France, Switzerland, and Austria at Savills Ski.

“Most of these are niche, boutique buildings with anywhere from eight to 14 units, and they’re releasing them selectively to create interest and demand, which has been a very successful approach,” he said.

“Andermatt is an emerging destination, and an intelligent buy. Many buyers haven’t heard of it, but it’s about building a brand to the level of Verbier, Courchevel or Gstaad.”

The Alpinist, Andermatt’s third hotel residence, is slated to open in 2027; with 164 apartments, the five-star project will be run by Andermatt-Swiss Alps, according to Collins.

Other developments include Tova, an 18-unit project designed by Norwegian architects Snohetta, and La Foret, an 18-apartment building conceived by Swiss architects Brandenberger Kloter.

Prices in Andermatt’s new buildings range from around 1.35 million francs for a one-bedroom apartment to as much as 3.5 million francs for a two-bedroom unit, according to Astrid Josuran, an agent with Zurich Sotheby’s International Realty.

Penthouses with four or more bedrooms average 5 million-6 million francs. “Property values have been increasing steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7% in the last 10 years,” she said.

“New developments will continue for the next 10 years, after which supply will be limited.”

Foreign buyers can obtain mortgages from Swiss banks, where current rates hover around 1.5% “and are declining,” Josuran said.

Compared to other countries with Alpine resorts, Switzerland also offers tax advantages, said Rollason of Savills. “France has a wealth tax on property wealth, which can become quite penal if you own $4 million or $5 million worth of property,” he said.

Andermatt’s high-end lifestyle has enhanced its appeal, said Collins of Andermatt-Swiss Alps.

“We have three Michelin-starred restaurants, and we want to create a culinary hub here,” he said. “We’ve redeveloped the main shopping promenade, Furkagasse, with 20 new retail and culinary outlets.

And there is a unique international community developing. While half our owners are Swiss, we have British, Italian and German buyers, and we are seeing inquiries from the U.S.”

But Andermatt is not the only Swiss location to cut red tape for foreign buyers.

The much smaller Samnaun resort, between Davos and Innsbruck, Austria, “is zoned so we can sell to foreigners,” said Thomas Joyce of Alpine property specialist Pure International.

“It’s high-altitude, with good restaurants and offers low property taxes of the Graubunden canton where it’s located.”

At the Edge, a new 22-apartment project by a Dutch developer, prices range from 12,000-13,500 francs per square metre, he said.

As Andermatt’s stature grows, this is a strategic time for foreigners to invest, said Josuran of Sotheby’s.

“It might be under the radar now, but it’s rapidly growing, and already among Switzerland’s most attractive ski locations,” she said. “Now’s the time to buy, before it reaches the status of a St. Moritz or Zermatt.”

Global Luxury Spending Could Decline Due To The Ukraine War

The conflict’s impact on global businesses has spread to luxury industries.

The government in Switzerland has waived residency requirements in a handful of locations, including one that’s growing fast.