H&M Has Lagged Behind Zara Owner Inditex In Online Shopping. Both Stocks Fell.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused sales to slump at retail giants Inditex and Hennes & Mauritz (H&M) in November, reversing glimmers of a recovery and shining a light on the very different online sales performance between the two companies.

Shares in both companies fell in European trading, with Inditex, which owns Zara, trading near 2% lower and H&M dropping more than 2% on Tuesday.

The back story. As global coronavirus infection rates slowed through the summer and government restrictions were loosened, shoppers flocked back to stores after months of retail closures. Both Spanish Inditex and Swedish H&M—the largest and second-largest fashion chains in the world, respectively—returned to profitability in the autumn after large losses.

With the Covid-19 pandemic keeping millions of shoppers housebound, Inditex has made a key investment in expanding online shopping. In June, the company announced a €2.7 billion ($4.34 billion) investment plan to improve online operations and increase store footprint, of which €1 billion was earmarked for digital investments.

H&M, still controlled by its founding Persson family, was already struggling before the pandemic hit. The company has been slower to shift to online shopping in favour of its more than 5,000 stores and the low-cost fashion strategy it helped pioneer.

What’s new. Both companies reported results on Tuesday—Inditex for the three months to the end of October, and H&M for the quarter ending Nov. 30 as well as the full year.

Store and online sales grew slowly from August to October at Inditex, with October sales at 94% of 2019 levels at constant currencies. In total, net sales of €6.1 billion in the third quarter were 14% lower than the same period in 2019. However, as coronavirus cases surged in November, 21% of stores remained closed and sales fell to 81% of 2019 levels.

At H&M, net sales for the fourth quarter were 10% lower in local currencies from the same period last year. Much of that came in the final month: sales were down by just 3% year-over-year from Sept. 1 to Oct. 21, but were 22% lower than 2019 in the period from Oct. 22 to Nov. 30.

Looking ahead. The results from the retail giants show the impact the second wave of Covid-19 has brought on sales. Fears over how much this hurts the bottom line for the full year is what may have caused both stocks to fall.

But the results also shine a light on the companies’ different online strategies—a crucial sales platform beyond the pandemic. Inditex reported that online sales grew 76% in the nine months to the end of October, while analysts expect H&M to lag far behind. The Swedish retailer didn’t post any fresh online figures on Tuesday. It had posted online sales growth of 40% in the second quarter and just 27% in the third.

Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”

H&M Has Lagged Behind Zara Owner Inditex In Online Shopping. Both Stocks Fell.

Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected