How Margin Debt Works

Margin debt is a sometimes-overlooked but key part of the stock market that is particularly pertinent right now.

It is the money that investors borrow from stockbrokers to buy securities when they can’t or don’t want to fund the entire purchase with cash. Say an investor wants to purchase 100 shares at $50 each for a total of $5,000 but has only $2,500 to invest. That individual could buy the rest of the shares on margin. The same process can be used to buy exchange-traded funds.

Investors frequently use margin to get more bang for their investing buck. “The pro of margin is that it increases your purchasing power,” says Jeff Deiss, director of wealth planning at ACM in Ridgewood, N.J.

The downside is that brokers typically charge interest on borrowed money. And if the individual starts losing money on the investment, the stockbroker might ask for additional cash as security or collateral. That decision and how much cash will be required will depend on a variety of factors, including the remaining value of the investment, how much money the investor owes the broker and the requirements of the broker.

“Buying on margin comes with a lot of risk, and if you are going to use margin, it is probably a good idea to have some cash on the side,” says Mr. Deiss. Investors who don’t have the required additional cash may be forced to close out their positions at a loss.

A large amount of buying on margin also can be detrimental to the stock market as a whole.

Margin Debt

At the end of January, customer margin debt at U.S. brokers regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or Finra, jumped to $799 billion from $562 billion a year earlier, according to data provided by Finra.

Some analysts say that jump in margin debt came from individual investors, who turned to online trading amid pandemic-related lockdowns. A combination of new easy-to-use trading technology, ultralow borrowing costs and stimulus checks from the federal government helped fuel the phenomenon.

“For younger folks, it’s kind of the drug of choice,” Mr. Deiss says.

The problem is, when there is a lot of margin debt concentrated in a few stocks, those stocks tend to see wild price swings, says Fabiana Fedeli, global head of fundamental equities at Rotterdam-based asset-management company Robeco. Anecdotal evidence indicates that the recent increase in margin debt coincided with higher participation levels by individual investors, she says.

Indeed, certain stocks that became popular with individual investors also saw price volatility earlier this year. “The minute that the margin couldn’t be met, some of the positions had to be sold immediately,” Ms. Fedeli says. “It gives volatility to the market,” she says.

The U.S. and Chinese governments should take action to lower future borrowing, as a surge in their debts threatens to have “profound” effects on the global economy and the interest rates paid by other countries, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

In its twice-yearly report on government borrowing, the Fund said many rich countries have adopted measures that will lead to a reduction in their debts relative to the size of their economies, although not to the levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, that is not true of the U.S. and China, which will continue to see a surge in borrowing if current policies remain in place. The Fund projected that U.S. government debt relative to economic output will rise by 70% by 2053, while Chinese debt will more than double by the same year.

The Fund said both countries will lead a rise in global government debt to 98.8% of economic output in 2029 from 93.2% in 2023. The U.K. and Italy are among the other big contributors to that increase.

“The increase will be led by some large economies, for example, China, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which critically need to take policy action to address fundamental imbalances between spending and revenues,” the IMF said.

The IMF expects U.S. government debt to be 133.9% of annual gross domestic product in 2029, up from 122.1% in 2023. And it expects China’s debt to rise to 110.1% of GDP by the same year from 83.6%.

The Fund said there had been “large fiscal slippages” in the U.S. during 2023, with government spending exceeding revenues by 8.8% of GDP, up from 4.1% in the previous year. It expects the budget deficit to exceed 6% over the medium term.

That level of borrowing is slowing progress toward reducing inflation, the Fund said, and may also increase the interest rates paid by other governments.

“Loose US fiscal policy could make the last mile of disinflation harder to achieve while exacerbating the debt burden,” the Fund said. “Further, global interest rate spillovers could contribute to tighter financial conditions, increasing risks elsewhere.”

A series of weak auctions for U.S. Treasurys are stoking investors’ concerns that markets will struggle to absorb an incoming rush of government debt. The government is poised to sell another $386 billion or so of bonds in May—an onslaught that Wall Street expects to continue no matter who wins November’s presidential election.

While analysts don’t expect those sales to fail, a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields would likely have consequences for borrowers around the world. The IMF estimated that a rise of one percentage point in U.S. yields leads to a matching rise for developing economies and an increase of 90 basis points in other rich countries.

“Long-term government bond yields in the United States remain elevated and sensitive to inflation developments and monetary policy decisions,” the Fund said. “This could lead to volatile financing conditions in other economies.”

China’s budget deficit fell to 7.1% of GDP in 2023 from 7.5% the previous year, but the IMF projects a steady pickup from this year to 7.9% in 2029. It warned that a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy “exacerbated by unintended fiscal tightening” would likely weaken growth elsewhere, and reduce aid flows that have become a significant source of funding for governments in Africa and Latin America.

An unusually large number of elections is likely to push government borrowing higher this year, the Fund said. It estimates that 88 economies or economic areas are set for significant votes, and that budget deficits tend to be 0.3% of GDP higher in election years than in other years.

“What makes this year different is not only the confluence of elections, but the fact that they will happen amid higher demand for public spending,” the Fund said. “The bias toward higher spending is shared across the political spectrum, indicating substantial challenges in gathering support for consolidation in the years ahead, and particularly in a key election year like 2024.”

How Margin Debt Works

Money that is borrowed to buy stocks is sometimes an indicator of future market performance. Here is how it works and why the matter is relevant now.

Says U.S. and China, which will continue to see a surge in borrowing if current policies remain in place.