How Much Is Tesla Software Worth? A Lot.
A second broker has taken a shot at valuing Tesla’s software business.
A second broker has taken a shot at valuing Tesla’s software business.
A second broker has taken a shot at valuing Tesla’s software business. The conclusion, good news for the company and for other carmakers, is that Tesla software is worth a lot.
UBS analyst Patrick Hummel took a look at some of the value hidden away in Tesla (ticker: TSLA). The idea that some might still be undiscovered within the world’s most valuable automaker, whose stock has trounced the competition, might seem oxymoronic. But bulls believe Tesla is more than just a car company, given that it sells solar panels, insurance, and importantly, software.
Hummell isn’t a full Tesla bull. He rates shares at Hold and has a target of $730 for the share price. He believes other automakers will have some success ramping up sales volumes for EVs, but that “Tesla remains the undisputed tech leader, most notably in software.”
At his price target. well above the stock’s current level of about $686, Tesla would be worth roughly $700 billion. He values the car business at roughly $200 billion, leaving about $500 billion for everything else.
“The lion’s share of this value can be generated by software, mainly autonomous driving,” wrote Hummell in a Wednesday report. “Out of $20 [billion operating profit] we expect Tesla to generate in 2025, $9 [billion] should already be software-driven.”
That almost half of profit would come from software by 2025 is surprising. Most of that would be from Tesla’s autonomous-driving package, called full self-driving mode, which sells for $10,000 today. To make more money, Tesla could improve the rate at which consumers choose that option, as well as potentially offering it via a monthly subscription.
Hummell isn’t the only one that values Tesla software highly. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has taken a sum-of-the-parts approach to valuing Tesla stock, looking at the different businesses separately. He values Tesla’s software and services business at roughly $250 billion.
That’s lower than Hummell’s call, but Jonas still rates Tesla stock at Buy, with a target of $880 for the share price. Jonas believes the Tesla car business is more valuable than Hummell does, valuing it at roughly $350 billion.
All the value and profit coming from software isn’t just a benefit to Tesla. Other auto makers plan similar products. Ford Motor (F) already plans to offer products related to its fleet of commercial vehicles around the globe. General Motors (GM) still has On Star. And Tesla peer NIO (NIO) is considering the idea of selling its autonomous-driving software as a subscription.
The theoretical valuation discussions about hidden assets, however, weren’t helping Tesla stock Wednesday. Shares were down about 0.6% in midday trading. in line with the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up about 0.1%.
The stock is down about 15% over the past couple of weeks, but is still more than 350% higher over the past year.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.
The latest round of policy boosts comes as stocks start the year on a soft note
China’s securities regulator is ramping up support for the country’s embattled equities markets, announcing measures to funnel capital into Chinese stocks.
The aim: to draw in more medium to long-term investment from major funds and insurers and steady the equities market.
The latest round of policy boosts comes as Chinese stocks start the year on a soft note, with investors reluctant to add exposure to the market amid lingering economic woes at home and worries about potential tariffs by U.S. President Trump. Sharply higher tariffs on Chinese exports would threaten what has been one of the sole bright spots for the economy over the past year.
Thursday’s announcement builds on a raft of support from regulators and the central bank, as officials vow to get the economy back on track and markets humming again.
State-owned insurers and mutual funds are expected to play a pivotal role in the process of stabilizing the stock market, financial regulators led by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance said at a press briefing.
Insurers will be encouraged to invest 30% of their annual premiums earning from new policies into China’s A-shares market, said Xiao Yuanqi, vice minister at the National Financial Regulatory Administration.
At least 100 billion yuan, equivalent to $13.75 billion, of insurance funds will be invested in stocks in a pilot program in the first six months of the year, the regulators said. Half of that amount is due to be approved before the Lunar New Year holiday starting next week.
China’s central bank chimed in with some support for the stock market too, saying at the press conference that it will continue to lower requirements for companies to get loans for stock buybacks. It will also increase the scale of liquidity tools to support stock buyback “at the proper time.”
That comes after People’s Bank of China in October announced a program aiming to inject around 800 billion yuan into the stock market, including a relending program for financial firms to borrow from the PBOC to acquire shares.
Thursday’s news helped buoy benchmark indexes in mainland China, with insurance stocks leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.0% at the midday break, extending opening gains. Among insurers, Ping An Insurance advanced 3.1% and China Pacific Insurance added 3.0%.
Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, thinks the latest moves could encourage investment in some of China’s bigger listed companies.
“Funds could end up increasing positions towards less volatile, larger domestic companies. This could end up benefiting some of the large-cap names we cover such as [Kweichow] Moutai or high-dividend stocks,” Wang said.
Shares in Moutai, China’s most valuable liquor brand, were last trading flat.
The moves build on past efforts to inject more liquidity into the market and encourage investment flows.
Earlier this month, the country’s securities regulator said it will work with PBOC to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy tools and strengthen market-stabilization mechanisms. That followed a slew of other measures introduced last year, including the relaxation of investment restrictions to draw in more foreign participation in the A-share market.
So far, the measures have had some positive effects on equities, but analysts say more stimulus is needed to revive investor confidence in the economy.
Prior enthusiasm for support measures has hardly been enduring, with confidence easily shaken by weak economic data or disappointment over a lack of details on stimulus pledges. It remains to be seen how long the latest market cheer will last.
Mainland markets will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday from Jan. 28 to Feb. 4.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.