Inflation Could Mean Value Stocks’ Time to Shine
Kanebridge News
    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,603,134 (+0.55%)       elbourne $989,193 (-0.36%)       Brisbane $963,516 (+0.83%)       Adelaide $873,972 (+1.09%)       Perth $833,820 (+0.12%)       Hobart $754,479 (+3.18%)       Darwin $668,319 (-0.54%)       Canberra $993,398 (-1.72%)       National $1,033,710 (+0.29%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $748,302 (+0.18%)       Melbourne $497,833 (-0.44%)       Brisbane $540,964 (-1.56%)       Adelaide $441,967 (-0.38%)       Perth $442,262 (+1.33%)       Hobart $525,313 (+0.38%)       Darwin $347,105 (-0.72%)       Canberra $496,490 (+0.93%)       National $528,262 (-0.02%)                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 10,189 (-104)       Melbourne 14,713 (+210)       Brisbane 7,971 (+283)       Adelaide 2,420 (+58)       Perth 6,383 (+298)       Hobart 1,336 (+6)       Darwin 228 (-12)       Canberra 1,029 (+8)       National 44,269 (+747)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,795 (-1)       Melbourne 8,207 (+293)       Brisbane 1,636 (+1)       Adelaide 421 (-4)       Perth 1,664 (+15)       Hobart 204 (-1)       Darwin 404 (-2)       Canberra 988 (+12)       National 22,319 (+313)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $800 (+$5)       Melbourne $600 ($0)       Brisbane $640 (+$10)       Adelaide $600 ($0)       Perth $660 ($0)       Hobart $550 ($0)       Darwin $700 ($0)       Canberra $690 ($0)       National $663 (+$2)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750 ($0)       Melbourne $590 (+$10)       Brisbane $630 ($0)       Adelaide $490 (+$10)       Perth $600 ($0)       Hobart $475 (+$23)       Darwin $550 ($0)       Canberra $570 (+$5)       National $593 (+$4)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 5,364 (+80)       Melbourne 5,428 (+4)       Brisbane 4,002 (+12)       Adelaide 1,329 (+16)       Perth 2,113 (+91)       Hobart 398 (0)       Darwin 99 (-5)       Canberra 574 (+39)       National 19,307 (+237)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 7,687 (+257)       Melbourne 4,793 (+88)       Brisbane 2,098 (+33)       Adelaide 354 (-11)       Perth 650 (+5)       Hobart 135 (-1)       Darwin 176 (-9)       Canberra 569 (+14)       National 16,462 (+376)                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 2.59% (↑)      Melbourne 3.15% (↑)      Brisbane 3.45% (↑)        Adelaide 3.57% (↓)       Perth 4.12% (↓)       Hobart 3.79% (↓)     Darwin 5.45% (↑)      Canberra 3.61% (↑)      National 3.33% (↑)             UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND         Sydney 5.21% (↓)     Melbourne 6.16% (↑)      Brisbane 6.06% (↑)      Adelaide 5.77% (↑)        Perth 7.05% (↓)     Hobart 4.70% (↑)      Darwin 8.24% (↑)        Canberra 5.97% (↓)     National 5.84% (↑)             HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.8% (↑)      Melbourne 0.7% (↑)      Brisbane 0.7% (↑)      Adelaide 0.4% (↑)      Perth 0.4% (↑)      Hobart 0.9% (↑)      Darwin 0.8% (↑)      Canberra 1.0% (↑)      National 0.7% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.9% (↑)      Melbourne 1.1% (↑)      Brisbane 1.0% (↑)      Adelaide 0.5% (↑)      Perth 0.5% (↑)        Hobart 1.4% (↓)     Darwin 1.7% (↑)      Canberra 1.4% (↑)      National 1.1% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND       Sydney 29.7 (↑)      Melbourne 30.9 (↑)      Brisbane 31.2 (↑)      Adelaide 25.1 (↑)      Perth 34.4 (↑)      Hobart 35.8 (↑)      Darwin 35.9 (↑)      Canberra 30.4 (↑)      National 31.7 (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND       Sydney 30.0 (↑)      Melbourne 30.5 (↑)      Brisbane 28.8 (↑)        Adelaide 25.2 (↓)       Perth 38.3 (↓)       Hobart 27.8 (↓)     Darwin 45.8 (↑)      Canberra 38.1 (↑)      National 33.1 (↑)            
Share Button

Inflation Could Mean Value Stocks’ Time to Shine

Bitcoin, gold and oil are all having a moment, but the best haven might be value stocks.

By SPENCER JAKAB
Wed, Oct 27, 2021 11:53amGrey Clock 3 min

Bitcoin, gold, oil, real estate—many assets are finding themselves on investors’ radar screens as concerns about inflation grow. The best refuge might be one that has been out of fashion for a while, though: boring old value stocks.

Value investing had a brief moment of superior performance early this year, only to sink back into second-class status as stocks like Tesla with triple-digit earnings multiples—and many with no earnings at all—surged anew. A broad basket of cheap stocks represented by the Russell 3000 Value Index has appreciated by a respectable 80% in the past five years. Russell’s corresponding basket of growth stocks has done more than 100 percentage points better, however.

Many people think of stocks of any stripe as a lousy investment when the cost of living surges, because the last time U.S. inflation was a major problem—from the late 1960s through the early 1980s—they went exactly nowhere and lost money in real terms. But companies with real assets, debts that are eroded by inflation and the ability to raise prices can do well and have done so at other times when inflation was elevated.

Even when they didn’t, value stocks were good relative performers. Decades like the 1940s, 1970s and 1980s saw value stocks beat growth amid fairly high inflation. By contrast, decades with low inflation or deflation such as the 2010s, 1930s and 1990s saw the opposite trend, according to data from researchers Eugene Fama and Kenneth French.

“It does feel like there is a shift,” says John Alberg, co-founder of Euclidean Technologies, which uses machine learning to manage long-term investments based on historical trends.

If inflation really is “transitory”—the result of supply-chain pressures that will soon reverse—then maybe growth can continue to trounce value for a while. But concerns about inflation have a way of becoming entrenched and turning into a persistent trend as companies succeed in pushing through price increases and workers demand higher pay. A search for “inflation” on media research site Factiva shows more hits in October, which isn’t yet over, than during any month in the past decade.

Companies that make electric cars, experimental drugs or software can raise prices, too, but their shares might be less desirable if inflation really picks up. The simple reason, Mr. Alberg surmises, is that when interest rates rise—as they tend to do during inflationary periods—the prospect of a payoff in the future is worth less than a more certain stream of cash in the near term.

Asset manager GMO recently opined on inflation hedges and found flaws with all of those now in fashion. Buying insurance backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Treasury through TIPS—bonds indexed to inflation—has become expensive.

So are industrial commodities, which cost money to store or to hold via financial instruments like futures. Traditional and newer havens like gold or bitcoin, meanwhile, have no intrinsic worth so they might or might not protect you. The best strategy, according to GMO, is to bet on a store of value in the form of cheap stocks.

“This is like being offered inflation insurance at a discount,” the asset manager said.

Note that this could merely mean a less-bad performance. Some decades when value stocks provided a haven and inflation was on the higher side, such as the 1980s, had stellar returns, but they started from a point when all stocks were a bargain. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio maintained by Yale professor Robert Shiller was in the single digits in 1981. Today it is around 39 times—its highest level since shortly after the technology stock bubble burst 21 years ago and above the 1929 peak.

Value stocks might not be the most exciting inflation hedge, but havens rarely are.

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: October 26, 2021.



MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

Related Stories
Property
How much income is required to service a mortgage? It depends on where you live
By Bronwyn Allen 25/04/2024
Money
Australian Inflation Stays Strong, Highlighting Challenge Facing RBA
By DAVID WINNING 25/04/2024
Money
Personal Wardrobe of the Iconic Late Fashion Designer Vivienne Westwood Goes up for Auction
By CASEY FARMER 25/04/2024
How much income is required to service a mortgage? It depends on where you live

New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal

By Bronwyn Allen
Thu, Apr 25, 2024 3 min

Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.

Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.

“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.

CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.

Sydney

Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.

Melbourne

Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.

Brisbane

Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.

Adelaide

Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.

Perth

Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.

Hobart

Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.

Darwin

Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.

Canberra

Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.

 

MOST POPULAR

Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts

11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

Related Stories
Money
The Global Fight Against Inflation Has Turned a Corner
By Tom Fairless and Paul Hannon 16/11/2023
Property
Top Suburbs For House Price Growth In 2023
By Bronwyn Allen 27/12/2023
Money
Yayoi Kusama Tops 2023 List of 21st-Century Artists
By ABBY SCHULTZ 10/04/2024
0
    Your Cart
    Your cart is emptyReturn to Shop