Inflation, interest rates set to fall in second half of the year, top lender forecasts
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    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,643,886 (+0.13%)       Melbourne $988,526 (+0.18%)       Brisbane $1,027,262 (+0.59%)       Adelaide $921,236 (-1.53%)       Perth $913,258 (-0.37%)       Hobart $750,852 (+0.44%)       Darwin $705,508 (+1.52%)       Canberra $959,740 (+0.41%)       National $1,061,930 (+0.08%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $765,156 (-0.86%)       Melbourne $497,287 (-0.04%)       Brisbane $603,986 (-2.12%)       Adelaide $458,533 (-0.76%)       Perth $487,745 (-0.55%)       Hobart $518,973 (+0.20%)       Darwin $390,036 (-1.70%)       Canberra $500,797 (-0.20%)       National $548,954 (-0.83%)                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 13,017 (+305)       Melbourne 16,861 (+38)       Brisbane 8,920 (+94)       Adelaide 2,683 (+93)       Perth 7,123 (+134)       Hobart 1,216 (+27)       Darwin 285 (0)       Canberra 1,288 (+65)       National 51,393 (+756)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 10,097 (-39)       Melbourne 9,079 (+75)       Brisbane 1,777 (+28)       Adelaide 464 (+11)       Perth 1,635 (+53)       Hobart 208 (+6)       Darwin 331 (+3)       Canberra 1,135 (+25)       National 24,726 (+162)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $800 ($0)       Melbourne $600 ($0)       Brisbane $640 ($0)       Adelaide $600 ($0)       Perth $675 (+$5)       Hobart $550 ($0)       Darwin $750 (-$10)       Canberra $680 ($0)       National $671 (-$1)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $740 (+$8)       Melbourne $560 ($0)       Brisbane $620 ($0)       Adelaide $490 ($0)       Perth $620 ($0)       Hobart $450 ($0)       Darwin $570 (+$20)       Canberra $550 ($0)       National $587 (+$4)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 5,925 (+132)       Melbourne 7,088 (+56)       Brisbane 4,248 (+25)       Adelaide 1,340 (-39)       Perth 2,195 (-79)       Hobart 227 (-3)       Darwin 116 (+4)       Canberra 507 (-8)       National 21,646 (+88)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 9,513 (+76)       Melbourne 6,738 (+50)       Brisbane 2,310 (+70)       Adelaide 375 (+1)       Perth 609 (+11)       Hobart 102 (+3)       Darwin 260 (+16)       Canberra 699 (-41)       National 20,606 (+186)                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND         Sydney 2.53% (↓)       Melbourne 3.16% (↓)       Brisbane 3.24% (↓)     Adelaide 3.39% (↑)      Perth 3.84% (↑)        Hobart 3.81% (↓)       Darwin 5.53% (↓)       Canberra 3.68% (↓)       National 3.29% (↓)            UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 5.03% (↑)      Melbourne 5.86% (↑)      Brisbane 5.34% (↑)      Adelaide 5.56% (↑)      Perth 6.61% (↑)        Hobart 4.51% (↓)     Darwin 7.60% (↑)      Canberra 5.71% (↑)      National 5.56% (↑)             HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.8% (↑)      Melbourne 0.7% (↑)      Brisbane 0.7% (↑)      Adelaide 0.4% (↑)      Perth 0.4% (↑)      Hobart 0.9% (↑)      Darwin 0.8% (↑)      Canberra 1.0% (↑)      National 0.7% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.9% (↑)      Melbourne 1.1% (↑)      Brisbane 1.0% (↑)      Adelaide 0.5% (↑)      Perth 0.5% (↑)      Hobart 1.4% (↑)      Darwin 1.7% (↑)      Canberra 1.4% (↑)      National 1.1% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND       Sydney 29.4 (↑)      Melbourne 31.4 (↑)        Brisbane 31.4 (↓)     Adelaide 24.8 (↑)      Perth 36.0 (↑)      Hobart 30.1 (↑)        Darwin 40.3 (↓)       Canberra 28.9 (↓)     National 31.5 (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND       Sydney 30.0 (↑)      Melbourne 32.2 (↑)        Brisbane 31.1 (↓)     Adelaide 23.4 (↑)        Perth 36.2 (↓)     Hobart 32.4 (↑)      Darwin 42.6 (↑)        Canberra 36.0 (↓)     National 33.0 (↑)            
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Inflation, interest rates set to fall in second half of the year, top lender forecasts

Weakened household consumption means the economy will slow in 2024, according to CBA’s economic outlook

By Bronwyn Allen
Tue, Jan 23, 2024 10:09amGrey Clock 2 min

Australia is likely to remain in the current per capita recession until the second half of the year, with the “distinct possibility” of a quarterly contraction in economic activity, according to the Commonwealth Bank’s 2024 economic outlook released yesterday. Growth in our gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to be below trend despite continuing strong population growth this year.

CBA forecasts annual inflation to fall to 3 percent by the end of the year, with unemployment to increase from 3.9 percent today to 4.5 percent. This will enable the Reserve Bank to commence interest rate cuts from September, with CBA expecting a total reduction of 75basis points (bps) in 2024 and a further 75 bps in the first half of 2025. CBA does not expect any rate rises beforehand.

At the heart of our forecast for below-trend growth is continued weakness in household consumption,” said Gareth Aird, CBAs head of Australian economics. Real household consumption was just 0.4 percent per year in Q3 23. Against the backdrop of approximately 2.5 percent population growth there has been a big contraction in the volume of spend per person.

Mr Aird said the compounding forces of weak real wages growth, considerably higher mortgage repayments and the impact of bracket creep on tax liabilities will all weigh on spending in the first half of 2024. There is no circuit breaker on the horizon in the short run to boost consumer demand. As such, we expect household consumption per capita will continue to contract over coming quarters. And there is a very real risk that total household consumption also declines.

CBA expects home values in Australia’s capital cities to lift by 5 percent over 2024. CoreLogic data shows a 9.3 percent increase in 2023, largely due to supply constraints in key markets such as Sydney. CBA senior economist Belinda Allen said the imbalance between demand, driven by elevated population growth, and low supply was set to continue this year.

Many of the same factors that drove prices higher are set to be in place in 2024, albeit with less intensity,” Ms Allen explained. However we expect affordability constraints and rising advertised supply to put a handbrake on home price growth over the first half or so of 2024.

The property market is likely to go through “a distinct period of moderation” in the first half, including small monthly falls in Sydney and Melbourne. Ms Allen said Australia’s two biggest cities are forecast to be weaker than the smaller capitals over the first half, but rate cuts from September will spur price growth everywhere. Overall, CBA is tipping home values to rise by 2 percent in Melbourne, 3 percent in Sydney, 8 percent in Brisbane and 9 percent in Adelaide and Perth.



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Impact Investing Is Turning Mainstream, Report Finds
By ABBY SCHULTZ
Wed, Oct 23, 2024 4 min

Impact investing is becoming more mainstream as larger, institutional asset owners drive more money into the sector, according to the nonprofit Global Impact Investing Network in New York.

In the GIIN’s State of the Market 2024 report, published late last month, researchers found that assets allocated to impact-investing strategies by repeat survey responders grew by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% over the last five years.

These 71 responders to both the 2019 and 2024 surveys saw their total impact assets under management grow to US$249 billion this year from US$129 billion five years ago.

Medium- and large-size investors were largely responsible for the strong impact returns: Medium-size investors posted a median CAGR of 11% a year over the five-year period, and large-size investors posted a median CAGR of 14% a year.

Interestingly, the CAGR of assets held by small investors dropped by a median of 14% a year.

“When we drill down behind the compound annual growth of the assets that are being allocated to impact investing, it’s largely those larger investors that are actually driving it,” says Dean Hand, the GIIN’s chief research officer.

Overall, the GIIN surveyed 305 investors with a combined US$490 billion under management from 39 countries. Nearly three-quarters of the responders were investment managers, while 10% were foundations, and 3% were family offices. Development finance institutions, institutional asset owners, and companies represented most of the rest.

The majority of impact strategies are executed through private-equity, but public debt and equity have been the fastest-growing asset classes over the past five years, the report said. Public debt is growing at a CAGR of 32%, and public equity is growing at a CAGR of 19%. That compares to a CAGR of 17% for private equity and 7% for private debt.

According to the GIIN, the rise in public impact assets is being driven by larger investors, likely institutions.

Private equity has traditionally served as an ideal way to execute impact strategies, as it allows investors to select vehicles specifically designed to create a positive social or environmental impact by, for example, providing loans to smallholder farmers in Africa or by supporting fledging renewable energy technologies.

Future Returns: Preqin expects managers to rely on family offices, private banks, and individual investors for growth in the next six years

But today, institutional investors are looking across their portfolios—encompassing both private and public assets—to achieve their impact goals.

“Institutional asset owners are saying, ‘In the interests of our ultimate beneficiaries, we probably need to start driving these strategies across our assets,’” Hand says. Instead of carving out a dedicated impact strategy, these investors are taking “a holistic portfolio approach.”

An institutional manager may want to address issues such as climate change, healthcare costs, and local economic growth so it can support a better quality of life for its beneficiaries.

To achieve these goals, the manager could invest across a range of private debt, private equity, and real estate.

But the public markets offer opportunities, too. Using public debt, a manager could, for example, invest in green bonds, regional bank bonds, or healthcare social bonds. In public equity, it could invest in green-power storage technologies, minority-focused real-estate trusts, and in pharmaceutical and medical-care company stocks with the aim of influencing them to lower the costs of care, according to an example the GIIN lays out in a separate report on institutional  strategies.

Influencing companies to act in the best interests of society and the environment is increasingly being done through such shareholder advocacy, either directly through ownership in individual stocks or through fund vehicles.

“They’re trying to move their portfolio companies to actually solving some of the challenges that exist,” Hand says.

Although the rate of growth in public strategies for impact is brisk, among survey respondents investments in public debt totaled only 12% of assets and just 7% in public equity. Private equity, however, grabs 43% of these investors’ assets.

Within private equity, Hand also discerns more evidence of maturity in the impact sector. That’s because more impact-oriented asset owners invest in mature and growth-stage companies, which are favored by larger asset owners that have more substantial assets to put to work.

The GIIN State of the Market report also found that impact asset owners are largely happy with both the financial performance and impact results of their holdings.

About three-quarters of those surveyed were seeking risk-adjusted, market-rate returns, although foundations were an exception as 68% sought below-market returns, the report said. Overall, 86% reported their investments were performing in line or above their expectations—even when their targets were not met—and 90% said the same for their impact returns.

Private-equity posted the strongest results, returning 17% on average, although that was less than the 19% targeted return. By contrast, public equity returned 11%, above a 10% target.

The fact some asset classes over performed and others underperformed, shows that “normal economic forces are at play in the market,” Hand says.

Although investors are satisfied with their impact performance, they are still dealing with a fragmented approach for measuring it, the report said. “Despite this, over two-thirds of investors are incorporating impact criteria into their investment governance documents, signalling a significant shift toward formalising impact considerations in decision-making processes,” it said.

Also, more investors are getting third-party verification of their results, which strengthens their accountability in the market.

“The satisfaction with performance is nice to see,” Hand says. “But we do need to see more about what’s happening in terms of investors being able to actually track both the impact performance in real terms as well as the financial performance in real terms.”

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11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

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