Michael Saylor Bet Billions on Bitcoin and Lost
The longtime MicroStrategy CEO, and perhaps the biggest bitcoin bull, steps down.
3 min
If you ask Michael Saylor why he bet the future of his company on bitcoin, he’ll tell you he didn’t have a choice.
In 2020, MicroStrategy Inc.’s stock was stagnant, and the tech company struggled to compete with software giants. “We were either going to die a fast death, or a slow death, or embark on a risky strategy,” he said.
He opted to buy bitcoin—lots of it. That decision backfired, badly. On Tuesday, MicroStrategy announced Mr. Saylor would step down as CEO, a position he has held since 1989, amid mounting losses tied to bitcoin.
His dalliance with bitcoin began on Aug. 11, 2020 when the company announced a plan to take $500 million—half of its corporate reserve—and convert it into bitcoin. It has since doubled down, and doubled down again.
In total, MicroStrategy raised $3.45 billion in debt and loans. It issued $1.44 billion in equity. The company used it all to buy bitcoin.
For a time, the decision appeared to be working. The price of bitcoin rose from about $17,088 in August 2020 to nearly $99,000 by November 2021. MicroStrategy’s stock rose from US$124 the day before its announcement to a record of US$1,273 on Feb. 9, 2021.
But on Tuesday, MicroStrategy announced its seventh quarterly loss in the eight quarters since it started buying bitcoin. This time the loss was big: $1.44 billion, much of that from bitcoin.
The same day, the company announced Phong Le, the company’s president, will take on the additional role of CEO. Mr. Saylor took on the role of executive chairman.
MicroStrategy shares were down 49% year-to-date through Tuesday, and 78% from its record.
The company is sitting on nearly 130,000 bitcoins valued at roughly $4.3 billion at current market prices. Its market capitalisation is about $4.45 billion. Essentially, MicroStrategy has become a bitcoin-holding vehicle with a cash-generating software business attached to it.
MicroStrategy’s losses reflect the volatility of bitcoin. Under accounting rules, the company must assess the value of its bitcoin holdings each quarter and take an impairment charge if the price has declined. MicroStrategy has taken a string of such charges totalling about $3.5 billion.
The bitcoin strategy turned Mr. Saylor into one of bitcoin’s most visible proponents. His Twitter feed, followed by 2.6 million, is a constant stream of pro-bitcoin quips.
He is uniformly bullish in interviews. In one, he advised people to “take all your money and buy bitcoin. Then take all your time, figure out how to borrow more money to buy more bitcoin. Then take all your time to figure out what you can sell to buy bitcoin.”
He similarly advised a conference room full of crypto enthusiasts in Miami to never sell their bitcoin.
It is this very philosophy that has worried some market observers.
“MicroStrategy is not an ideal investment for most traders,” said Oanda analyst Edward Moya.
For one thing, Mr. Moya said, MicroStrategy’s strategy was only to buy and hold bitcoin. There was no profit-taking. There also was no hedging against the inevitable volatility and tumbles. When the selloffs came, MicroStrategy was exposed to the full breadth of them.
Another problem is that the company doesn’t have many more ways to get more money to buy more bitcoin, said BTIG analyst Mark Palmer. “A lot of the levers MicroStrategy could have pulled to create more capacity have been pulled,” he said. “Now it’s just using the cash flow from the software business.”
Still, Mr. Palmer said, the ultimate judgment on MicroStrategy’s bitcoin bet won’t come until some of that debt it borrowed to buy bitcoin starts to mature. If the price of bitcoin languishes, the company is going to have problems paying back its creditors, he said.
“The ticking clock is the maturity of the MicroStrategy debt,” he said.
Despite the risks and the criticisms, Mr. Saylor still believes in his strategy, and bitcoin. In an interview last week, he noted that the stock is still well above its pre-bitcoin levels, and believes the strategy has raised the company’s profile, despite the risks attached to it.
“I feel better about it today than I did on the day we started,” he said.
He says he will continue to head MicroStrategy’s bitcoin investments. He has no plans to sell any bitcoin, and still expects it to gain in value over the years. The company reiterated Tuesday it has no plans to sell any bitcoin.
Mr. Saylor said swapping the CEO roles had been a long-term plan. “The new executive structure means I can even more enthusiastically focus on communications and strategy and bitcoin advocacy and evangelism,” he said.
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Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
2 min
China’s economic recovery isn’t gaining the momentum money managers are awaiting.
Data from China Beige Book show that the economic green shoots glimpsed in August didn’t sprout further in September. Job growth and consumer spending faltered, while orders for exports came in at the lowest level since March, according to a monthly flash survey of more than 1,300 companies the independent research firm released Thursday evening.
Consumers’ initial revenge spending after Covid restrictions eased could be waning, the results indicate, with the biggest pullbacks in food and luxury items. While travel remains a bright spot ahead of the country’s Mid-Autumn Festival, hospitality firms and chain restaurants saw a sharp decline in sales, according to the survey.
And although policy makers have shown their willingness to stabilise the property market, the data showed another month of slower sales and lower prices in both the residential and commercial sectors.
Even more troubling are the continued problems at Evergrande Group, which has scuttled a plan to restructure itself, raising the risk of a liquidation that could further destabilise the property market and hit confidence about the economy. The embattled developer said it was notified that the company’s chairman Hui Ka Yan, who is under police watch, is suspected of committing criminal offences.
Nicole Kornitzer, who manages the $750 million Buffalo International Fund (ticker: BUIIX), worries about a “recession of expectations” as confidence continues to take a hit, discouraging people and businesses from spending. Kornitzer has only a fraction of the fund’s assets in China at the moment.
Before allocating more to China, Kornitzer said, she needs to see at least a couple quarters of improvement in spending, with consumption broadening beyond travel and dining out. Signs of stabilisation in the housing market would be encouraging as well, she said.
She isn’t alone in her concern about spending. Vivian Lin Thurston, manager for William Blair’s emerging markets and China strategies, said confidence among both consumers and small- and medium-enterprises is still suffering.
“Everyone is still out and about but they don’t buy as much or buy lower-priced goods so retail sales aren’t recovering as strongly and lower-income consumers are still under pressure because their employment and income aren’t back to pre-COVID levels,” said Thurston, who just returned from a visit to China.
“A lot of small- and medium- enterprises are struggling to stay afloat and are definitely taking a wait-and-see approach on whether they can expand. A lot went out of business during Covid and aren’t back yet. So far the stimulus measures have been anemic.”
Beijing needs to do more, especially to stabilise the property sector, Thurston said. The view on the ground is that more help could come in the fourth quarter—or once the Federal Reserve is done raising rates.
The fact that the Fed is raising rates while Beijing is cutting them is already putting pressure on the renminbi. If policy makers in China wait until the Fed is done, that would alleviate one source of pressure before their fiscal stimulus adds its own.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
