Share market vulnerable as 2024 gains wiped out this month
But leading Australian economist says there are five reasons for investors to be optimistic about the future
3 min
A 291-point or 3.69 percent dive in the benchmark ASX 200 index over April has all but wiped out the Australian share market’s gains for 2024. There was a 140-point or 1.81 percent drop in the ASX 200 on Monday and a minor further fall yesterday. The Australian market has followed the US lead this month, with the S&P 500 also down significantly, losing 232 points or 4.42 percent since 1 April.
The catalysts include last week’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data. Although analysts think Australian inflation is unlikely to follow suit, stickier-than-expected inflation in the US may delay the first interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As the US is the world’s largest economy, this may have implications for central bank decisions in other nations like Australia.
“ … uncertainty over when the Fed will start to cut rates has been increased by three worse than expected monthly CPI inflation results in a row …,” said AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver. “This has seen money market expectations for 0.25 percent rate cuts this year scaled back from seven starting in March this year to now less than two starting in September. And in Australia they have been scaled back from nearly three starting in June to no rate cut until late this year/early next.”
On top of that, Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel and Israel’s insistence that a response will be forthcoming despite many Western nations’ objections have made investors nervous. If Iran were to become more involved in the ongoing war, this may have ramifications for oil prices.
“Another sharp spike in oil prices would be a threat to the economic outlook as it could boost inflation again … potentially resulting in higher than otherwise interest rates and act as a tax hike on consumers leaving less to spend on other things,” Dr Oliver said.
Also, in Australia, the pandemic savings buffers people have been using to cope with the cost of living crisis are being depleted and China’s weak property sector is impacting demand for iron ore. All of this makes shares vulnerable to a pullback amid stretched valuations and more trading volatility ahead, Dr Oliver said.
On balance though, Dr Oliver thinks an upward trend is likely to remain for shares. “From their lows last October, it has been relatively smooth sailing for shares – with US shares up 28 percent, global shares up 25 percent and Australian shares up 17 percent to recent highs.”Dr Oliver said the past few weeks have “seen a rough patch” but the share market is likely to continue its bull run.
Markets have been strong since November 2023 due to falling inflation and optimism that the interest rate cycle is at its peak. Many economists have expressed surprise that the jobs market in many Western countries has remained strong despite weaker economic conditions. Some are terming this “immaculate disinflation” because it goes against the traditional trend of many people losing jobs when economies slow down.
Dr Oliver says there are five reasons to be optimistic about the share market’s strength:
In this climate, Dr Oliver recommends that investors stick to an appropriate long-term investment strategy and accept that share market pullbacks are “healthy and normal”.
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The latest round of policy boosts comes as stocks start the year on a soft note
2 min
China’s securities regulator is ramping up support for the country’s embattled equities markets, announcing measures to funnel capital into Chinese stocks.
The aim: to draw in more medium to long-term investment from major funds and insurers and steady the equities market.
The latest round of policy boosts comes as Chinese stocks start the year on a soft note, with investors reluctant to add exposure to the market amid lingering economic woes at home and worries about potential tariffs by U.S. President Trump. Sharply higher tariffs on Chinese exports would threaten what has been one of the sole bright spots for the economy over the past year.
Thursday’s announcement builds on a raft of support from regulators and the central bank, as officials vow to get the economy back on track and markets humming again.
State-owned insurers and mutual funds are expected to play a pivotal role in the process of stabilizing the stock market, financial regulators led by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance said at a press briefing.
Insurers will be encouraged to invest 30% of their annual premiums earning from new policies into China’s A-shares market, said Xiao Yuanqi, vice minister at the National Financial Regulatory Administration.
At least 100 billion yuan, equivalent to $13.75 billion, of insurance funds will be invested in stocks in a pilot program in the first six months of the year, the regulators said. Half of that amount is due to be approved before the Lunar New Year holiday starting next week.
China’s central bank chimed in with some support for the stock market too, saying at the press conference that it will continue to lower requirements for companies to get loans for stock buybacks. It will also increase the scale of liquidity tools to support stock buyback “at the proper time.”
That comes after People’s Bank of China in October announced a program aiming to inject around 800 billion yuan into the stock market, including a relending program for financial firms to borrow from the PBOC to acquire shares.
Thursday’s news helped buoy benchmark indexes in mainland China, with insurance stocks leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.0% at the midday break, extending opening gains. Among insurers, Ping An Insurance advanced 3.1% and China Pacific Insurance added 3.0%.
Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, thinks the latest moves could encourage investment in some of China’s bigger listed companies.
“Funds could end up increasing positions towards less volatile, larger domestic companies. This could end up benefiting some of the large-cap names we cover such as [Kweichow] Moutai or high-dividend stocks,” Wang said.
Shares in Moutai, China’s most valuable liquor brand, were last trading flat.
The moves build on past efforts to inject more liquidity into the market and encourage investment flows.
Earlier this month, the country’s securities regulator said it will work with PBOC to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy tools and strengthen market-stabilization mechanisms. That followed a slew of other measures introduced last year, including the relaxation of investment restrictions to draw in more foreign participation in the A-share market.
So far, the measures have had some positive effects on equities, but analysts say more stimulus is needed to revive investor confidence in the economy.
Prior enthusiasm for support measures has hardly been enduring, with confidence easily shaken by weak economic data or disappointment over a lack of details on stimulus pledges. It remains to be seen how long the latest market cheer will last.
Mainland markets will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday from Jan. 28 to Feb. 4.
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