The fast-approaching ‘silver tsunami’ set to hit the Australian economy
As 710,000 Australians choose to retire in the next five years, there are serious implications for the economy on the horizon
As 710,000 Australians choose to retire in the next five years, there are serious implications for the economy on the horizon
Australia is fast approaching a ‘silver tsunami’ that will bring with it significant socio-economic challenges for the country says the Retirement Living Council (RLC), a division of the Property Council Australia. RLC Executive Director Daniel Gannon said the council is concerned about housing affordability for older Australians and the provision of enough housing options, such as retirement villages, to allow for an affordable and comfortable lifestyle after they stop working.
There are 4.2 million retirees in Australia today, and another 710,000 people intend to retire over the next five years, according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Over the next two years, 226,000 people intend to retire, which is almost 100,000 more than the number of people who retired between FY21 and FY23.
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The average age at retirement among Australia’s current cohort of retirees was 56.9 years, according to the data. However, the average age that most people intend to retire is 65.4 years, which is about 18 months before they become eligible for the age pension at 67 years of age.
On average, women retire sooner than men, but they are retiring later than in previous years. In FY23, the average age at retirement among female retirees was 54.7 years, up from 54 years in FY21. Men are also retiring slightly later with their average age at retirement now 59.4 years, compared to 59.3 years in FY21. Over these two years, Queensland saw the greatest increase in its retiree population, up 32,000 to 860,000. New South Wales had the largest retiree population at 1.3 million.
The ABS said the main factor influencing someone’s decision about when to retire was financial security. In FY23, the most common reason for deciding to retire cited by 31% of those surveyed was reaching the retirement age (i.e., pension age) or becoming eligible to access their superannuation. Most Australians can’t access their superannuation until they reach their preservation age. This age varies depending on the age of birth but ranges from 55 years for those born before 1 July 1960 to 60 years for those born after 30 June 1964.
The second most common reason behind retiring was sickness, injury or disability (13 percent). The next most common was being retrenched, dismissed or not being able to find work (5 percent). In these cases, financial security may not be assured and retirement becomes more of a forced decision. Currently, the age pension is still the main source of income for most retirees, with superannuation the second most common main source of income.
Given financial security is a key concern among those nearing or at retirement age, Mr Gannon said governments needed to ensure there would be enough suitable and affordable housing options for retirees as their numbers grow. “Unfortunately, a rapidly growing number of Australians are retiring with mortgage debt while the aged pension remains the main source of income for most retirees. Units in retirement communities are priced on average 48 percent lower than median house prices in the same postcode, meaning these communities can help address retirement income challenges.”
Mr Gannon said the recent Federal Budget contained no housing plan for older Australians amid today’s housing supply and affordability crisis. “While [the increase in] Commonwealth rent assistance is welcome news for some Australians, the existing eligibility thresholds exclude the majority of people living in affordably priced retirement units,” he said.
As Australia’s family offices expand their presence in private credit, a growing number of commercial real estate debt (CRED) managers are turning to them as flexible, strategic funding partners.
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As Australia’s family offices expand their presence in private credit, a growing number of commercial real estate debt (CRED) managers are turning to them as flexible, strategic funding partners.
Family offices are increasingly asserting their dominance in Australia’s private credit markets, particularly in the commercial real estate debt (CRED) segment.
With more than 2,000 family offices now operating nationally—an increase of over 150% in the past decade, according to KPMG—their influence is not only growing in scale, but also in strategic sophistication.
Traditionally focused on preserving intergenerational wealth, COI Capital has found that family offices have broadened their mandates to include more active and yield-driven deployment of capital, particularly through private credit vehicles.
This shift is underpinned by a defensive allocation rationale: enhanced risk-adjusted returns, predictable income, and collateral-backed structures offer an attractive alternative to the volatility of public markets.
As family offices increase their exposure to private credit, the dynamic between managers and capital providers is evolving. Family offices are highly discerning capital allocators.
They expect enhanced reporting, real-time visibility into asset performance, and access to decision-makers are key differentiators for successful managers. Co-investment rights, performance-based fees, and downside protection mechanisms are increasingly standard features.
While typically fee-sensitive, many family offices are willing to accept standard management and performance fee structures when allocating $5M+ tickets, recognising the sourcing advantage and risk oversight provided by experienced managers. This has created a tiered market where only managers with demonstrated execution capability, origination networks, and robust governance frameworks are considered suitable partners.
Notably, many are competing by offering differentiated access models, such as segregated mandates, debt tranches, or tailored securitisation vehicles.
There are important distinctions between onshore and offshore family offices in the context of CRED participation:
Onshore Family Offices: Typically have deep relationships with local stakeholders (brokers, valuers, developers) and a more intuitive understanding of planning, legal, and enforcement frameworks in Australian real estate markets. They are more likely to engage directly or via specialised mandates with domestic managers.
Offshore Family Offices: While often attracted to the yield premium and legal protections offered in Australia, they face structural barriers in accessing deal flow. Currency risk, tax treatment, and regulatory unfamiliarity are key concerns. However, they bring diversification and scale, often via feeder vehicles, special-purpose structures, or syndicated participation with Tier 1 managers.
COI Capital Management has both an offshore and onshore strategy to assist and suit both distinct Family Office needs.
The influx of family office capital into private credit markets has several systemic implications:
Family offices, deploying capital in significant tranches, have enhanced liquidity across the mid-market CRE sector.
Their ability to move quickly with minimal conditionality has contributed to yield compression, particularly on low-LVR, income-producing assets.
As a few family offices dominate large allocations, concerns emerge around pricing power, governance, and systemic concentration risk.
Unlike ADIs or superannuation funds, family offices operate outside the core prudential framework, raising transparency and risk management questions, particularly in a stress scenario.
Yes—family offices are arguably among the most attractive funding partners for CRED managers today. Their capital is not only flexible and long-term focused, but also often deployed with a strategic mindset.
Many family offices now have a deep understanding of the risk-return profile of CRE debt, making them highly engaged and informed investors.
They’re typically open to co-investment, bespoke structuring, and are less bogged down by institutional red tape, allowing them to move quickly and decisively when the right opportunity presents itself. For managers, this combination of agility, scale, and sophistication makes them a valuable and increasingly sought-after partner in the private credit space.
For high-performing CRED managers with demonstrable origination, governance, and reporting frameworks, family offices offer not only a reliable source of capital but also a collaborative partnership model capable of supporting large-scale deployments across market cycles.
Faris Dedic is the Founder and Managing Director of DIG Capital Advisory and COI Capital Management
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