Twitter Stock’s Fall Isn’t Over, Analysts Warn
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    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,613,207 (-0.60%)       Melbourne $969,484 (-0.54%)       Brisbane $991,125 (-0.15%)       Adelaide $906,278 (+1.12%)       Perth $892,773 (+0.03%)       Hobart $726,294 (-0.04%)       Darwin $657,141 (-1.18%)       Canberra $1,003,818 (-0.83%)       National $1,045,092 (-0.37%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $754,460 (+0.43%)       Melbourne $495,941 (+0.11%)       Brisbane $587,365 (+0.63%)       Adelaide $442,425 (-2.43%)       Perth $461,417 (+0.53%)       Hobart $511,031 (+0.36%)       Darwin $373,250 (+2.98%)       Canberra $492,184 (-1.10%)       National $537,029 (+0.15%)                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 9,787 (-116)       Melbourne 14,236 (+55)       Brisbane 8,139 (+64)       Adelaide 2,166 (-18)       Perth 5,782 (+59)       Hobart 1,221 (+5)       Darwin 279 (+4)       Canberra 924 (+36)       National 42,534 (+89)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,638 (-81)       Melbourne 8,327 (-30)       Brisbane 1,728 (-19)       Adelaide 415 (+10)       Perth 1,444 (+2)       Hobart 201 (-10)       Darwin 392 (-7)       Canberra 1,004 (-14)       National 22,149 (-149)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $820 (+$20)       Melbourne $620 ($0)       Brisbane $630 (-$5)       Adelaide $615 (+$5)       Perth $675 ($0)       Hobart $560 (+$10)       Darwin $700 ($0)       Canberra $680 ($0)       National $670 (+$4)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750 ($0)       Melbourne $590 (-$5)       Brisbane $630 (+$5)       Adelaide $505 (-$5)       Perth $620 (-$10)       Hobart $460 (-$10)       Darwin $580 (+$20)       Canberra $550 ($0)       National $597 (-$)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 6,197 (+313)       Melbourne 6,580 (-5)       Brisbane 4,403 (-85)       Adelaide 1,545 (-44)       Perth 2,951 (+71)       Hobart 398 (-13)       Darwin 97 (+4)       Canberra 643 (+11)       National 22,814 (+252)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 10,884 (-22)       Melbourne 6,312 (0)       Brisbane 2,285 (-54)       Adelaide 357 (-14)       Perth 783 (-14)       Hobart 129 (-14)       Darwin 132 (+6)       Canberra 831 (+15)       National 21,713 (-97)                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 2.64% (↑)      Melbourne 3.33% (↑)        Brisbane 3.31% (↓)       Adelaide 3.53% (↓)       Perth 3.93% (↓)     Hobart 4.01% (↑)      Darwin 5.54% (↑)      Canberra 3.52% (↑)      National 3.34% (↑)             UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND         Sydney 5.17% (↓)       Melbourne 6.19% (↓)     Brisbane 5.58% (↑)      Adelaide 5.94% (↑)        Perth 6.99% (↓)       Hobart 4.68% (↓)     Darwin 8.08% (↑)      Canberra 5.81% (↑)        National 5.78% (↓)            HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.8% (↑)      Melbourne 0.7% (↑)      Brisbane 0.7% (↑)      Adelaide 0.4% (↑)      Perth 0.4% (↑)      Hobart 0.9% (↑)      Darwin 0.8% (↑)      Canberra 1.0% (↑)      National 0.7% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.9% (↑)      Melbourne 1.1% (↑)      Brisbane 1.0% (↑)      Adelaide 0.5% (↑)      Perth 0.5% (↑)      Hobart 1.4% (↑)      Darwin 1.7% (↑)      Canberra 1.4% (↑)      National 1.1% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND         Sydney 29.8 (↓)     Melbourne 31.7 (↑)      Brisbane 30.6 (↑)        Adelaide 25.2 (↓)       Perth 35.2 (↓)     Hobart 35.1 (↑)      Darwin 44.2 (↑)        Canberra 31.5 (↓)     National 32.9 (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND         Sydney 29.7 (↓)       Melbourne 30.5 (↓)     Brisbane 27.8 (↑)        Adelaide 22.8 (↓)     Perth 38.4 (↑)        Hobart 37.5 (↓)       Darwin 37.3 (↓)       Canberra 40.5 (↓)       National 33.1 (↓)           
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Twitter Stock’s Fall Isn’t Over, Analysts Warn

How much more could it tumble?

By Eric J. Savitz
Tue, Jul 12, 2022 2:51pmGrey Clock 3 min

Now that Elon Musk has decided he would rather not own Twitter, Wall Street is scrambling to think through what happens from here, and what the company might be worth on a stand-alone basis.

Twitter shares plunged 11.3% on the news Monday, but still seemed priced to reflect the possibility a deal will still happen at a lower price. If there is no sale, Twitter stock could tumble another 30% from here, analysts say.

In a letter disclosed in an SEC filing late Friday afternoon, attorneys for Musk said that he is terminating his $54.20-a-share deal to buy Twitter (ticker: TWTR), asserting that the company breached the terms of their agreement by not fully disclosing details relating to the use of fake accounts on the site. Twitter denies withholding this information, and said that it will file suit to force Musk to complete the deal.

Twitter closed Monday at $32.65 a share, well below the bid price, but arguably still well above the company’s intrinsic value. Most Street analysts seem to think that Twitter as an independent company with no acquisition potential based on the current outlook would trade in the $25 to $30 a share range.

Keep in mind that 2022 has been a terrible year for social media stocks. While Twitter is off 23% for the year to date, that is a relatively modest decline compared with Pinterest (PINS), off 49%; Meta (META), off 51%; and Snap (SNAP), down 70%.

MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni notes that Snap, Pinterest and Meta are all trading at all-time low multiples of forward Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Twitter, he notes, is trading at about 16 times, but troughed at 12 times at the March 2020 low, and previously dropped to 9 times in April 2016. Put a low-teens multiple of Ebitda on the stock, he says, and the shares would be in the $24 to $26 range. Other analysts draw the same conclusion.

There are differences of opinion on the Street about what happens from here, but they mostly fall into two camps.

A few analysts think the deal gets renegotiated at a lower price. Benchmark analyst Mark Zgutowicz asserts that US$37 would be a “good compromise,” and that a deal at that level would be in the best interest of shareholders. “We suspect neither party wants a long, drawn-out legal battle, and Twitter’s board must contemplate the potential harm to its employee and shareholder base of any additional internal data exposed in litigation. We do believe Elon Musk ultimately wants to run Twitter and believe the best course of action for both parties is a compromise.”

Mizuho analyst James Lee likewise asserts that “the most reasonable scenario” would be to negotiate a deal at a lower price, or a settlement that allows Musk to walk away, avoiding protracted litigation.

Others think Twitter is going to have to go it alone: CFRA analyst Angelo Zinino agrees that a settlement or revised offer would be the best-case scenario for both sides, but he also thinks Twitter would have a hard time accepting a price reduction large enough to satisfy Musk.

His view that the most likely scenario is that Twitter stays independent. But Zinino warns that the company faces a difficult advertising market for the second half and into 2023, and he also sees risk that the company could see a huge talent drain as doubts grow about the company’s future.

“With Musk officially walking away from the deal, we think Twitter’s business prospects and stock valuation are in a precarious situation,” Zinino writes. “We see risks from an uncertain advertising market, a damaged employee base, and concerns about the status of fake accounts/strategic direction as a stand-alone company.”

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says the situation is a “nightmare” for Twitter, that results in an “Everest-like” uphill climb “to navigate the myriad of challenges ahead,” including employee turnover, advertising headwinds, and investor worries around the fake account issues, among other things.

JMP Securities analyst Andrew Boone asserts that his gut reaction is that Musk no longer wants to own Twitter, with macro conditions worsening and growing employee attrition. Boone writes in a research note that he “increasingly” thinks Twitter’s future will be to remain independent.

Other scenarios are possible. Conceivably, with the stock down sharply, an alternative bidder could emerge, though none has surfaced so far, and there are no obvious buyers.

It’s also possible that negotiations fail, resulting in protracted litigation, in which either Musk wins, and walks away from the deal, or Musk loses, and gets stuck paying the original price. In either litigation scenario, you can imagine endless appeals that could drag on for eons.

Reprinted by permission of Barron’s. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: July 11, 2022.



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The Top 10 highest paid CEOs of the ASX 200 revealed

Along with pay rates, the latest report from the ACSI shows bonuses are no longer based on exceptional results

By Bronwyn Allen
Tue, Jul 23, 2024 2 min

The CEOs of the ASX 200 were paid a little less in FY23 compared to the year before, but bonuses appear to have become the norm rather than a reward for outstanding results, according to the Australia Council of Superannuation Investors (ACSI). ACSI has released its 23rd annual report documenting the CEOs’ realised pay, which combines base salaries, bonuses and other incentives.

The highest-paid CEO among Australian-domiciled ASX 200 companies in FY23 was Greg Goodman of Goodman Group, with realised pay of $27.34 million. Goodman Group is the ASX 200’s largest real estate investment trust (REIT) with a global portfolio of $80.5 billion in assets. The highest-paid CEO among foreign-domiciled ASX 200 companies was Mick Farrell of ResMed with realised pay of $47.58 million. ResMed manufactures CPAP machines to treat sleep apnoea.

The realised pay for the CEOs of the largest 100 companies by market capitalisation fell marginally from a median of $3.93 million in FY22 to $3.87 million in FY23. This is the lowest median in the 10 years since ACSI began basing its report on realised pay data. The median realised pay for the CEOs of the next largest 100 companies also fell from $2.1million to $1.95 million.

However, 192 of the ASX 200 CEOs took home a bonus, and Ed John, ACSI’s executive manager of stewardship, is concerned that bonuses are becoming “a given”.

“At a time when companies are focused on productivity and performance, it is critical that bonuses are only paid for exceptional outcomes,” Mr John said. He added that boards should set performance thresholds for CEO bonuses at appropriate levels.

ACSI said the slightly lower median realised pay of ASX 200 CEOs indicated greater scrutiny from shareholders was having an impact. There was a record 41 strike votes against executive pay at ASX 300 annual general meetings (AGMs) in 2023. This indicated an increasing number of shareholders were feeling unhappy with the executive pay levels at the companies in which they were invested.

A strike vote means 25 percent or more of shareholders voted against a company’s remuneration report. If a second strike vote is recorded at the next AGM, shareholders can vote to force the directors to stand for re-election.

10 highest-paid ASX 200 CEOs in FY23

1. Mick Farrell, ResMed, $47.58 million*
2. Robert Thomson, News Corporation, $41.53 million*
3. Greg Goodman, Goodman Group, $27.34 million
4. Shemara Wikramanayake, Macquarie Group, $25.32 million
5. Mike Henry, BHP Group, $19.68 million
6. Matt Comyn, Commonwealth Bank, $10.52 million
7. Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto, $10.47 million
8. Rob Scott, Wesfarmers, $9.57 million
9. Ron Delia, Amcor, $9.33 million*
10. Colin Goldschmidt, Sonic Healthcare, $8.35 million

Source: ACSI. Foreign-domiciled ASX 200 companies*

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